book celebrating norman macrae

[chris macrae]

3 Billion Jobs of Youth Economics - the unfinished mission of The Economist's Unacknowledge Giant Norman Macrae

 

This book invites you to join in an exciting discipline - the one which either designs the futures peoples want most or destroys these futures.

 

Keynes called this economics, but we are not fussed with what the discipline is called. Keynes did his greatest work at Cambridge University during the second quarter of the 20th Century. He was actually quite shocked by the conclusion of his greatest book "General Theory" that increasingly the world would be ruled by economics. And he advised practical people to be alive with curiosity about the greatest risk to our future generations being elderly economic academic scribblers!

 

My father was a teenager in world war 2 navigating Royal Air Force airplanes over modern day Bangladesh and Myanmar. He then went up to Cambridge to be the last journalist tutored by Keynes. Dad spent the next 40 years editing every innovation story he could find with a pro-youth lens- would this leadership news be globally and locally valuable to helping make the net generation more productive and sustainable?

 

2012 Year 40 of Futures Correspondence around The Economist's Entrepreneurial Revolution

In 1972, father saw an early experiment of 500 youth interacting simultaneously around a digital network of computers linking in 4 different universities in the North of England. Dad penned a future history on the next 40 year and soon coined "Entrepreneurial Revolution" as the genre for the most exciting stories on changes to the productive possibilities of the coming internet generation. By 1984, his and my future history "the 2024 Report" mapped the challenges the net generation would face in co-creating 3 billion jobs with technology would offer a million times more collaboration energies than when man used computers to race to the moon in the 1960s.

 

Dad shared with me 2 different ways of participating in the futures peoples want.

 

The simple way, mainly used in this book, is to identify a market or service that matters to you because it has life critical impacts. Then help as diverse groups of people as you can reach discuss what future purpose they most want - with particular focus on visioning the next generation's productivity.

 

A complex way intervenes with the theories - and makes transparent the dynamics and assumptions of the historic systems - that have spread all over the world of man-made value exchanges.

 

This book is arranged around 10 chapters. Each provides details on hosting a discussion with cases of futures representing trillion dollar global markets and purposes with huge impacts on everyone's lives.

Like my father I try particularly to value sustainability of our children's opportunities and their future generations which the worldwide webbed world is making ever more connected. At the end of each chapter I have added a few questions and notes which ask about making the complexity of economic theory more transparent and contextually practical. However any errors in the endnotes are mine alone and do not change the reason why debating the future purpose of each trillion dollar market needs to be mediated as diversely and as joyfully as 21st century peoples can muster through new interactive media and old broadcast media

 

10 markets - please help us edit these pro-youth market futures - [e-mail]

 

Futures of Pro-Youth Banking - Purposeful actions 1 Save regularly as early as possible however small amount 2 Credit only for income generation or family safety 3 Invest in (mothers) communal goals for next generation (kenya case mobile youth's regeneration of slums)   deeper points: a1 banker in community should try any small scalle experime- eg if bank distributing vegetable seeds works to create value and restore infant nutrition great a2 a core process of community banking is to linkin peer circles as well as community owned market - this maximise match between supply and demand and makes and so sustainable income generation a3 community owned banks never encourage property or land speculation but they need to be strategically responsible for family's sustainability in community vis a vis exteernal pressures (eg city creep into rural over a generation) a4 it is not the case that microcredit is only responsible for one person businesses- it takes strategic ccharge of hole value chains from bottum up as well as making the greatest einnovationsfrom point of view of advancing human lot design infrastructure chnages round franchises with community owned equity (telephone ladies oar energy ladies ...) building ecovillages!     4 membership wide insurance - affordable group purchased solutions , disaster protection 5 organise almost free wellness peer to eer action groups   3 generations of microcredit model 1 pre-mobile 2 mobile-in-flux 3 mature mobile cash is gamechanger   majority of 3 billin new jobs of net generation in all nations can't proceed escept where this banking is free to flourish sustainably		Foundations Few changes are more urgent than the exciting roles 21st c foundations can play- both with life critical needs that have been left unmet in some communities and in catalysing patient investments in open infrastructure through partnership networks that 20th century organisations couldn't map how to get collaboratively started on   The 21st c foundation (including what the 20th century called charities, aid and NGO (non governmnet office) could target many of the most exciting millennium goals that the net generation can imagine and invest in youth co-producing these.   An essential innovation is for foundations to want to be the most economical designers of community-owned service franchises.   The franchise is the most basic operational module of the service econmy as The Economist survey on intrapreneurship argued in 1982. It structures a way a local team can provide a solution a community needs in a way that sustains both the emotional joys of local teamwork and access to actioning world class knowhow and facilities.   Aravind is a "foundation" case whose leader explicitly walked this talk. His mission's goal: end unecessary blindness by francising cataract operations so that the poorest could be treated. This video shows him demanding of himself the efficiency of a Mcdonalds but use of positive income model to replicate franchsies and so accelerate achievevemnt of the end blindness goal not to take a profit out.   What makes a specific community-owned service solution most economical to sustain is entrepreneurially contextual. The essons of aravind (some of which may apply to the serving the greatest human goal you can imagine and some which wont) include: cross-subsidising - those prospective atients who can afford the operation pay for up to 2 people who can't   efficiency with expert's time- the aravind eye surgeon performs 10 times more cataract operations than any other ; that's part of the brilliance of the franchsie which borrowed on all the greatest knowhow of experts in the field which in this case involved all the community of practice of Larry Brilliant (an american with more medical goodwill network contacts than most as eg a friend of the google founders but also the practice networker who helped asians end the very last case of smallpox)   equally over 95% of the patient service time including finding patients can be done by nurses trained only for eye patients and with access to the simplest kinds of mobile technology -it turns out that village girls can be taught how to be para-eye nurses in about eight weeks. At least once a year aravind turns itself into a free college where thousands of new eye nurses are born   Few changes are more urgent than the exciting roles 21st c foundations can play- both with life critical needs that have been left unmet in some communities and in catalysing patient investments in open infrastructure through partnership networks that 20th century organisations couldn't map how to get collaboratively started on.   Keys are economic foundations need to celebrate positive income models as this enables their leaders to accelerate the goal of the whole organsaition and stop having ever more of their time spent on fundraising   thr human race's life critical goals are surely where we should expect to celebrate today's millions time more collaboration technology first and through brilliant open network partnering ( collaboration entrepreneurship)   BRINGING DOWN DEGREES OF SEPARATION ON LIFE CRITICAL INFORMATION FLOWS FIRST Imagine how smart a use of dnew media we humans can make, as Norman Macrae did as first economic journalist of the net generation in 1984. Why not worldwide webs in which pro-youth media is designed to search out where one community has a brilliantly economical service that other communities need. Provided the innovator of this solution wants to open source it to be owned by host communities, foundations can play the role of banking the franchise replication. This is where the sustainable charity models made most famous by Bangladesh provide an opportunity to solve challenges that separated government, non-profits, companies and media could not do. Only positive income models can get on moores law acceleration - today we can apply this not just to annual doubling of the chips compuyting power but service replication. By 2011 Grameen was on a moores law doubling role in installing solar units up to 1 million installed from half a million in all the eyars to 2010   Replicating franchises to be community owned involves surgically choose how to change value chains to be bottom-up and open flowing. This economic interventon that foundations can help youth mediate to end poverty in developing world is congruent in system mapping terms to with will be needed in developed countries to end high youth unemployment . It doesnt make sense to be the generation with the greatest collaboration technologies the human race has ever shared and not to be investing in youth communally making exciting productive uses of this. In 2 summits involving over 4000 Europeans at end of 2011, the EU recognised that this role of foundations may be the last chance we have of getting European youth back to work. There are hundreds of billions of dollars of dormant capital lying in the hands of european foundations. For sure, there are many cross-cultural and inter-demographic muddles which need tactful conflict resolution as well as constitutional changes so that charities can invest in accelerating their greatest purposes wherever moores laws doubling of achievement are possible. We need to anticipate that some foundations are accidentally anti-youth as may be the cultures of the elder generations that bequeathed them; some laws prevent such social privatizations from being entrepreneured by precisely the peoples who most need to be communally integrated. Sometimes professional monopolies prevent youth from playing para-professional roles that new technology makes practical and which is far better for those communities which will otherwise end up with neither the fully qualified professional working there and with youth hanging around with nothing to do but to lose hope . For example over 100 million jobs can come from investing in girl power if we embrace the franchising mission to end nurseless villages and in the process we can make healthcare for all affordable again. Foundations that get this include nike foundation and mastercard foundation   Leadership teams in 20th century foundations often were not selected for tech or entrepreneurial capabilities. However such a gap explains how large the opportunity can now be if we celebrate open information worlds wherever life critical knowhow-actions has previously been blocked from flowing. One of the missing clues of organisational design comes from the father of computing John Von Neumann. He wondered aloud what sort of new organisational typologies will be invented when those who are both most capable and most socially passionate will be able to handle 50 team projects at the same time each of whose analytical components will be accelerating as computers make pure number crunching a billion times less costly to do. Please note this does not mean that the hi-tech world should be led by numbers; it means as the mathematician Turing was first to celebrate that there should be much smarter jobs designed round what humans can recursively do and no soulless machine ever can.   We should be helping youth vote for the most exciting millennium goals and investing in their co-production. Logically we might expect that some of the most purposeful organisations in the world will come from the foundation mission culture but not the type of model they used in 20th c.   This opportunity often becomes clearer once you think of a particular practice purpose. For example the most exciting social solution in university world is the virtually free university which sees job-creating youth however poor as the greatest investment any place can make. Celebrating jobs competitions of youth entrepreneurs is one of the "new media" -see what wonderful social solutions youth want to work on from emerging celebrations of this kind
Homes, land, family, community		Place government
Nutrition, energy		Multi-win professions
Safety & Health		EDU - 3 billion jobs ready
Open Tech Life		Mass media Future Heroes

One technical issue comes top. Its understanding compound impacts.

Let's say that you double yor productivity or reachig your goal every 8 years- that means
over a lifetime of 40 years you can 2*2*2*2*2*2= 32 times multiply growth or progress your greatest goal. How much growth do you need to attain each year to do that - just 9.1%.

 

When banks or others responsible for peoples intergenerational savings reward people for aiming at excess of 9% returns they are behaving in ways that are statistically bound to
destroy the place you live in. Conversely just because some errant bankers may
have bankrupted your place that does not mean that right now youth should be
imprisoned from developing the great possibilities of the net generation. If
german , swiss , american banking or politicians say youth anywhere should be
deprived of this once of thenet generation acess to million times more
collaboration productivity than when man raced to moon in the 1960s then they
are not only disatrously wrong economically but they havent learnt from history
what causes wars between nations. And in this ear of ever increasing human
interconnectvity causing such aggression yo spiral will probably end human
sustainability even fater than man;s current war with nature

Larry Brilliant- 100/13 leaders of 2010s -youth's most productive generation

FREEMARKET Role - Understanding risk espeially Health and Safety's Most Life Critical Maps of Connectivity

 

What would world miss without Larry Brilliant?     First consider 2 cases Larry had a huge influence in before mobile connectivity became ubiquitous   He's probably the most trusted medical expert of combating unnecessary blindness. His expert network helped the Indian founder or www.aravind.org - one of the most brilliant examples of a service franchsie designed round purpose instead of profit extraction. Aravind's founder asked why not open source life critical knowhow (his goal being ending unneccessary blindness in india) as a team franchise with the efficiency that Mcdonalds profites from replicating fast food. Aravind is arguably the clearest case of a replicable social business franchise in a medical field   Larry's own most famous moment came in ending the last case of smallpox. Ending a plague takes extraordinary coordination of local mapping information. Ending such a risk depends on how collaboratively bottom-up information flows are shared.   Larry took his practical experience to reducing degrees of separation of life critical information to his job as first head of www.google.org and currently works with Jeff Skoll www.globalthreats.org on popularising the relationship betwen compounding risk and man's accelrating connectivity. The project that begun this whole emerging area for Skoll networks of entrepreneurship seems to have been the filming of Gore's inconveneint truth   Until recently mankind didnt build systems on the same global sacle as nature. Consequently when a disatrous mistake was made it might collapse a civilisation but not the whole human race. Mathematicians as early as Einstein have warned its not obvious that the human race will survive the techbology of extreme connectivity. Ironically Von Neumann -the father of modern day computing- died before his time due to nuclear exposure. The dynamics of nuclear and plagues are 2 heath and safety risks everyone can see. Those who have stuidied expoential impacts most including Larry would add such compasses as poverty's loss of hope among youth, climate and other crises where man scales a global dynamic in opposition to nature;s value selection, and history's record . This show that with every new connectivity media: evil networkers have linked in faster than goodwill networkers. All Hitler needed to spread his evil propaganda fastest was the seemingly small innovation of audio tape recording integrated with radio - his vicious propaganda could be endlessly replayed while people of goodwill had to make each of their speeches live.

Next collaboration challenges   Since the start of the fourth quarter. media entrepreneurial revolutionaries have been focused on the 64 trillion dollar question will the human race use digital media to get collaboratively smarter, or to get dumber and more addicted the way orwell's big brother endgame spins   Ask forbidden questions like these - what's the smartest twittering collaboration you have ever seen and what's the dumbest. (the origin of twiller was to help people communicate in real time emergencies- suppose twitter has apperaed just before 9/11 and been marketed to first responders before the public)   What's the smartest mapmaking app you have seen and whats the dumbest?   Where else than the investment banks for the world's poorest mothers do capital structures for investing in goodwill multiplication thrive?   Is you region's future led by economics of scaling up small is beautiful ,or letting the big get bigger rule over everyone else with systems that are too big to exist   By France's defintion the entrepreneurual school of economics is interested in integrating society's visions of each global markets purspose- which markets do you know of that have enough freedom of speech to value society's view of sustainability's exponential impacts   Discuss does the 21st C have an equivalent of the trio gandhi-montessori-einstein who worked to transform rule over india by british empire? This had accidentally become professionally about command and control ( separation's top-down ivory towers) instead of the mathematically deeper integration skills needed on the ground to value mapping context, diversity, botlom-up and open the way nature rules her world of evolution, -and which webs are humanity's first tool to mimic with! Collaboration is the new competitive advantage andthe good news is  its economics thrives on abundancy not manipulating scarcity

Norman Macrae Foundation next steps   Norman Macrae and Peter Drucker first met before Norman reached his teens. The occasion was an informal dinner party while Norman's dad worked at British Consular in Stalin's Moscow. It was from those first observations that peter and norman as avid diarists were to be the 20th's century's most clear advocates of economists bever desigbing system that are too big to exist. By 1984 as the first journalist of the internet generation,Norman wrote by 2005 man recognised that the gap in income and expectations of rich and poor nations became recognised as the human raec's greatest risk.   To date 21st c economists have completely failed to be transpararent about the worldwide dynamics of networkng compound risk. This is spite of Brookings expert report on this phenomenon in 2000 called Unseen Wealth. Unfortunately just as bilpolar usa politics between bush and gore threw out all of the whole truth's debates on climate sustainability they threw out understanding that economists should always value the search for win-win-win purpose not the race by the big to get bigger. The economically sustainable way to advance the human lot is to adopt Sir Fazle Abed's maxim. Small may be beautiful, but in Bangladesh large scale is absolutely essential. This is why understanding aravind type cases of open microfranchising innovations are crucial to the future capacity of economics to design the futures peoples most want. Note this ABC A) how a service franchise starts with turning one community into a social lab, working for how ever many years it takes to perfect a service franchise that bring's downs degrees of separation of world know to a very local app B) demand that such life critical apps are primarily open sourced as community-0wned franchises C) Ensure that every place structures enough of family's savings as cpaital that invest in the productivity of that place's next generation. That's why investment banks for the poor turn out to be the most trusted financial systems for replicating open source franchises round life critical apps. Norman's last articles written in 2008translated this understanding to prevent usa/europe from spinning wall street's subprime folly grandeur into quintuple dip recession through 2010s. His 1984 work on the internet clariiued why the way we integrate every community into globalisation will either produce the most productive time for worldwide youth or destroy this. There is no in-between endgame from being the first generation that is more connected than separated.