by the biggest powers least able to value open society from the ground up
over 40 years ago moores law started doubling computing power with couple of yeras- but we havent used that to collaborated around the life critical community solutions that The Economist started mapping in 1972 - hence the 2010s have a heck of a lot of catch up if they are to become youth's and humanity collaboration decade and one that prevents the compound risks of Orwell's Big Brotherdom trajectory
dec 2010 the last 3 months of research in economist boardrooms and where economists meet publicly in dc have shone a little bit of sunlight on this problem - bureaucrat economists including government and big banks and most journalists have defined economics to exclude futures extreme innovation; every day now in washington dc you can sit through 90 minutes of experts debating how to repair usa economy, and when you ask why the internet's job creation economy isnt included in all their fiddling with taxes and currencies and stimuli and political negotiaotions etc there is a deathly silence and then they turn on you -that's not what economics studies
well I am sorry but if economists dont include what's compound dynamics are changing exponentials in their remit they are absolutely worthless and there is no polite way round that in 4 generations of my family's experience, or adam smiths reasoning for reasoning
if you buy into this being a huge problem, resourcewise I would far rather it was hosted somewhere else but for the moment I will scribble some expoentials stimuli at http://normanmacrae.ning.com ; it may be that its good news that economically the microfinance model is no longer independent of the internet purpose model as we can afford to let big banks sponsor professors of mfi in endless and meaningless debates if we help youth win the net purpose model (exciting 2010s)
Can humanity survive a wave that doubles life critical change every year for 40 years
understand history's waves even if they weren't doubling so fast - lets define a wave that goes through at least 20 doublings:
..wave generated around 1492 by ships demontrating world was round
wave generated by steam engine (typically 50 years of exploitation by old power (english upper classes which over next 50 years then progressively removed from control of future's impacts while its officials still belived they were powerfully riuling the world)
wave generated by electric media including mass (command and control) media ( typically 50 years of usa capitalism 1.0 which was relatively good for the world but got dismally lost in superpower gov ideologies and tv spots between 1945-1975)
wave generated by electronic chips and much more microscopic interactions than newtons mechanics including interactive (all way round Q&A ) media -the one that will determine at least 10 fold increase of human productivity on optimistic scenario or plant irreversible loss of future genrations by 2024 - making 2010s the most exciting decade! with bangaldesh sustainability solutiions world trade centre in midst of asia pacific century
.if economics (in the way keynes defined as being what rules all other man mades systems) can't help all 7 billion people question transparently several value multiplying waves ahead, it mathematically probable that we can't sustain the human race
the generation 1984-2024 is facing this crisis of compound opportunity and threat - its not just moores curve of doubling intensity of silicon chips , its all the impacts waves have ever propagated through history;
how people transport themselves including the fascinating question will your livelihood depend more on people you physically work with or knowledge of yours that is replicable worldwide or helps whole networks of people transform from trading in wasteful thing consumption to value multiplying knowhow services
what they communicate and believe is knowledge
what products and services they value exchange and so grow sustainable communities out of
mathematically the greatest compound risks becomes boundaries - where people fight intsead of interfacing win-wins the way nature expects systems that live on to do
groups who were used to empowering over or extracting from others now being invited to transform to multiple win models or
Bangladesh empowered nation building by billion poorest village women
triangle of going post colonial post industrial post carbon
optimism media triangle - joy of ending poverty, joy of celebrating each others nations, joy of trillions times Moore comstech (media computing mobile telecoms) that when man and machine raced to the moon
idea 1 1946 -reboot the 8 main empire nations- all north of latitude 40 - 6 westerns, one japan eastern, one the roof of the whole of Eurasia and almost half the arctic circle;
transition from rebooting 8 nations to developing the world's nearly 200 nations- many with borders that are unnatural as far as mother earths flows goes and unnatural culturally because empires used them to divide and conquer peoples they controlled top down- take for example Gandhi’s work which across 3 regions south Asia south Africa and North Europe mainly London shows the chaos British empire law spun everywhere
idea 2 word war 2 had interrupted (partly propagated) by developments in mass media radio and tv, it added huge leaps in two other technologies - the opportunities of computing and the threats of nuclear- through the 1950s von Neumann did his best to humanize these unprecedented forces
1963 is one important time to summarize:
America had successfully rebooted japan and s Korea and the whole of east Asia’s island nations were free to rise : japan Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore
first AI debates were merging - from the detailed one of how would teaching change if every child had a Japanese pocket calculators, to if man can reach the moon with the new tech what isn’t possible-within a few year Gordon Moore was to add the 3rd ai debate what of electronic engineers promise 100 times moore silicon chip power every decade to 2030- that will be a trillion times Moore than raced to moon by 2030
BUT the man who had inspired the moon race subgeneration was assassinated : in fact 2 Kennedys 10 black leaders and Yoko Ono's husband pop idol John Lennon- America was to get caught up in 3 unnerving challenges:
cultural inclusion across USA and indeed from north to south America
the military complex that had emerged in being the superpower that had kept Stalin at bay
media and world events whose bad news ended the century of the America dream having appeared to be every human dream ( the Cuban crisis bring cold war support of dictators to Latin America, the unwinnable Vietnam war, the crisis in oil markets and nations whose only trade was oil)
Europe had launched 20 old peoples dreams of its own- health and pension services which were inspiring ideas until you realized they needed to go beyond the large youth bobble- youth sponsoring elders costs of health and pensions; the EU which had been born sensibly in Messina but became a bureaucracy instead of a free market paradigm - while it did integrate Germany and France’s coal and iron so they would never go to war with each other- look how biased 5 of the 6 founding EU nations were against Europe’s south coastal belt (med sea facing nations)- and so its connections with: Asia where in terms of population numbers most of the world and most of the conflicts of the colonial era were spiralling: Africa a continent without any of the East’s post-colonial rising suns.
ASIA PACIFIC CENTURY
Celebrate good news from the far east nations rising suns where the green revolution had turned rice into the food security crop, oral rehydration had given rural mothers south of latitude 25 the mo0st vital of community building role and blossoming was win-win traders around the new tech, china was being invited to bring its firth of the world population back to world trade (it exiled itself for over 100 years rather than accept British empires ultimatum to accept opium as a currency). Note that unlike the scarcity of consuming up thing’s life critical knowhow multiples value if 4G and 5G tech can humanize AI
By 1980 it was clear if we helped youth and educators understand a decade ahead of 100 times Moore surely the exponentials of uniting millennials as the first sd generation were still possible even as the big broth exponentials of an opposite end game foreseen in Orwell’s big brother were multiplying too -reference 2025 report published from 1984 as alternative to Orwell’s endgame- timelining -and mediating- each G decades biggest challenges to empowering girls and boys to be the SD Generation). Humanize AI and 5G now, or never again see mother earth empower over 8 billion girls and boys to blossom
veryone's projects) around an EWTP?
Starting with the 3 peer to peer learning currcula half a billion chinese youth (under 30) value most in connecting sustainability jobs around the planet
3 coding- mobile app leapfrogging - social world trades can be defined as post-indudtrial revolution's ways above zero sum - systemically transformed beyond macroeconomics of trades extracting things and profiteering quarters ( no mater what risk is spiraled onto stakeholders other than the most rampant speculators)
2 chinese language
1 english language
why not celebrate valuing youth's BBC21 not just developing BRICS -
note XI jinpings confidence - over half of the world's economic and human growth in recent years comes from china and india - which is also where late 20th century's 2 billion plus people had been under-employed
Do you have time to imagine what a world of 3.5 billion fully employed and employable youth can bring if inspired by China's invitation to celebrate Hangzhou Consensus?
Britain's english language,
Bangladesh's coding leapfrog models,
China's language and half a billion most social/sustainable world trading youth
at the very least our advice to under 30s everywhere - develop hi-trust friendships with as many of china's quarter billion women under 30 as your social entreprise networking can …
Generation - storyteller lech walesa; occasions 2013 nobel peace and youth summit warsaw- my shipyard union workers (Gdansk) would have killed me if I had told them the whole truth. All our livelihoods depended on trade with moscow. To free the Polish people we'd need to end our jobs. It was too big a cultural revolution - without Pope John Paul's solidarite Warsaw "Free Capital of Poland" would not have known (let alone social actioned) the :once in a generation momen"t for all our childrens futures was upon us NOW…
heck out this map that Agence France-Presse made last in December — two months before protesters in Kiev forced President Viktor Yanukovych out of office. Russia has now invaded the strategic Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, and markets are spooked at the possibility that Russian troops that are being built up on the border could enter eastern Ukraine. As the international tug-of-war for Ukraine continues, the tension involving economic relations in the region — especially regarding gas flow from Russia to both Ukraine and Europe — will increase. Germany is perhaps the best example of this, as described by Noah Barkin of Reuters: “Heavily dependent on Russian gas and closer to Moscow than any other leading western nation, Germany faces a major policy dilemma as the Ukraine crisis descends into a Cold War-style confrontation of tit-for-tat threats and ultimatums.”…
Yunus and global social business partnerships in Paris with companies lie DANONE and business schools like HEC
I have some updated news that I would like to explore with Jean-Francois - would a half hour meeting be possible?
I attended the annual celebrations George Soros hosts out of Budapest - this year he was celebrating Sir Fazle Abed who I now realise to be an even more open job creator in developing world than Yunus
George Soros network or economist rethinking economics http://www.ineteconomics.org/ is starting up a wave of moocs (massive open online curriculum/collaborations) - each aimed at getting half a million youth to simultaneously learn and action how to remake economics as the discipline that ultimately systemizes what futures are possible -first one begins next week
I am working with several citizens in DC to start up conscious capitalism DC chapter - the CEO of whole foods is developing this so that citizens can ask what sector future purposes do they believe in
When my father started Entrepreneurial Revolution in The Economist in 1972 it aimed to map the 3 billion new jobs that open education world could sustain bet generation around if economics was redesigned to sustain every community. So I see the next 2 years as critical now that massive open education platforms are scaling If for example http://www.khanacademy.org/ which is known for its open curricula of maths and healthcare could get job creating net generation economics curriculum linked through economist Jean-Francois and I believe in most then that could change the world back to the net generation being worldwide youth's most productive time. I continue to connect back to networkers in franc which now hoists the best annual millennium goals summit http://www.convergences2015.org/ which is coming up in 2 weeks
League table of capitals most supporting Yunus Open Curricula of Youth
Firstly nobody however big their income or power can argue with the French having coined the word ENTREPRENEUR for how do we design systems for all the people (liberte egalite fraternite soroeity) to grow having just cut off the heads of the 1% that were enslaving the peoples through monopolising all productive assets. To commemorate this extraordinary time France chose to make women fashionable - previously it had been the rich men that wore gay things as anyone visiting Versailles can see. So nits absolutely up to the French to mobilise responsble fashion trade with yunus after 1000+ garment workers were killed in a collapsing factory in Dhaka
Back in the 1700s The Scots and the French has the same terrifying problem of being sucked into the value chains of the English Empire - so they spent 100 years writing how ro reconcile that from adam smith and jb say onwards and then sent down a scot (James Wilson and what because a family of great economists including Walter Bagehot whose updated curriculum is being MOOCED - by the author of the new Lombard street 1 sept 2013 out of a womens college linked to Columbia uni) to start The Economist -goal one boot ouf 70% of MPS who represented vested interests, goal 2 end legislation like corn laws that was compounding hundred- goal 3 end big capital abuse of youth . Through this goal-led journey courage queen Victoria to make her legacy cross-cultural epicenter of commonwealth not top down slave trading. Whether or not you agree that the French and the Scots succeeded - this was the goal of entrepreneurial pro-youth- collaboration economics in mapping back futures of every global market sector round purposes that would sustain peoples working lifetimes. Anyone who uses the entrepreneur word who is not signed up to this meta-collaboration goal should be sent to the isle of elba not passing go (as the monopoly game would have it
ominate the dealmaker. Not, though, with Manuel Vicente. On April 15th this year the chairman and chief executive of Sonangol, Angola’s state oil firm, strode into a room decorated with extravagant flowers in central Beijing and shook hands with Xi Jinping, the Chinese vice-president and probable next general secretary of the Communist Party. Mr Vicente holds no official rank in the Angolan government and yet, as if he were conferring with a head of state, Mr Xi reassured his guest that China wants to “strengthen mutual political trust”.
Angola—along with Saudi Arabia—is China’s largest oil supplier and that alone makes Mr Vicente an important man in Beijing. But he is also a partner in a syndicate founded by well-connected Cantonese entrepreneurs who, with their African partners, have taken control of one of China’s most important trade channels. Operating out of offices in Hong Kong’s Queensway, the syndicate calls itself China International Fund or China Sonangol. Over the past seven years it has signed contracts worth billions of dollars for oil, minerals and diamonds from Africa.
These deals are shrouded in secrecy. However, they appear to grant the Queensway syndicate remarkably profitable terms. If that is right, then they would be depriving some of the world’s poorest people of desperately needed wealth. Because the syndicate has done deals with the regimes in strife-torn places, such as Zimbabwe and Guinea, it may also have indirectly helped sustain violent conflicts.
The Economist repeatedly put these accusations to the people who feature in this article, asking for their side of the story. But—with one exception, noted below—we heard nothing. In short, it looks as if the fortunes of entire African countries depend to a significant degree on the actions of a little-known, opaque and unaccountable business syndicate. “Buccaneers are cutting themselves a large slice of Africa’s resource cake,” says Gavin Hayman of Global Witness, a watchdog that mapped the syndicate’s deals.
The Queensway rules
The syndicate is built on links forged during the cold war. It is largely the creation of a man known as Sam Pa. Though he uses several names, he was born Xu Jinghua. After attending a Soviet academy in Baku four decades ago, say people who have looked into his career, he traded with Angola during its civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 2002 and over the years was a proxy battleground for several outside powers, including China, America, Cuba, the Soviet Union and South Africa. Mr Pa is a private and rarely photographed person. His name appears in few syndicate documents. He is believed to exert control through Veronica Fung, who may be a member of his family. She controls 70% of a core company, Newbright International. The two frequently travel in Africa, using the syndicate’s fleet of Airbus jets. They are said sometimes to bypass customs.
Mr Pa has several Chinese partners, according to a 2009 American congressional report. The daughter of a Chinese general, Lo Fong Hung, married to Wang Xiangfei, a well-connected banker, controls 30% of Newbright. Mrs Lo is the public face of China International Fund and China Sonangol. She is listed as a director of dozens of interconnected companies. The business’s operations were initially entrusted to the head of a privatised engineering firm from the mainland, Wu Yang. Later, African partners took over.
Although the Queensway syndicate has sometimes been suspected of being an arm of the Chinese government, there is little evidence of that. Indeed, it has often been the butt of criticism from Chinese officials. More likely it was set up to take advantage of a new strategy by the Chinese government, known as the “going out” policy. In 2002, after decades of commercial isolation, China started encouraging entrepreneurs to venture abroad. Short of contacts, Mr Pa teamed up with Hélder Bataglia, a Portuguese trader who had grown up in Angola and had links to Latin America. Together in 2004 they visited Néstor Kirchner, the president of Argentina, and Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela. Mr Chávez welcomed them on his weekly television show “Aló Presidente”, where Mr Pa grandiloquently declared: “This is an historic day because we are taking part in your programme.”
The syndicate initialled several deals in Latin America but none of them came to much. The idea was to trade minerals for infrastructure—in return for commodities, Chinese contractors would build housing and highways. But Argentina and Venezuela already had a fair amount of both, so the syndicate turned to new markets.
In late 2004 Mr Pa travelled to Angola. He knew President José Eduardo dos Santos, having first met him as a student in Baku and later traded with his guerrilla army. Mr Pa’s new partner, Mr Bataglia, also knew the guerrillas from having supplied them with food during the civil war. They were joined by a third trader, Pierre Falcone, a French Algerian who has long enjoyed close links with the Angolan elite and particularly the president.
Together the men persuaded the Angolan elite to channel their fast-expanding oil exports to China through a new joint venture, called China Sonangol. Mr Vicente, boss of Angola’s Sonangol, became its chairman. Contracts, signed in 2005, gave the company the right to export Angolan oil and act as middleman between Sonangol and Sinopec, one of China’s oil majors.
China Sonangol threw itself into the business, according to Angolan oil ministry records and applications for bank loans backed by oil shipments. The official statistics are incomplete, but good sources have concluded that almost all of China’s imports of oil from Angola—worth more than $20 billion last year—come from China Sonangol. By contrast, China’s state-owned oil companies have no direct interest in Angolan oilfields, one of their two biggest sources of crude. Their names do not show up on the map of concessions.
To Guinea and Zimbabwe
By 2009 the syndicate was trading a lot of Angolan oil and decided to expand to other African countries. Mr Vicente, both head of the Angolan state oil company and of China Sonangol, flew to Guinea in 2009 to arrange a deal for the syndicate. One of the people he met was Mahmoud Thiam, Guinea’s minister of mines, whose government had come to power the same year in a coup. Mr Thiam is an American citizen who studied at Cornell University and had previously worked as a Wall Street banker at Merrill Lynch and UBS.
With Mr Thiam’s support, the syndicate won the chance to become a partner in a new national mining company. This would control the state’s share of existing projects and, much more important, gain control of future projects in what is a relatively undeveloped mineral territory. Guinea contains the world’s largest reserves of bauxite and its largest untapped reserves of high-grade iron ore. Under a contract signed by Mr Vicente, the syndicate got an 85% share in a venture called the African Development Corporation. The government received the other 15%. The venture won exclusive rights to new mineral concessions in Guinea, including the right to negotiate oil-production contracts in the Gulf of Guinea. In return, the syndicate promised to invest “up to $7 billion” in housing, transport and public utilities, according to the government of Guinea (GDP $4.5 billion).
Ultimately this deal foundered on a Guinean election, but at the time the Queensway syndicate was so pleased that it reportedly gave Guinea’s military ruler a helicopter as a present. Mr Thiam began to travel with representatives for the syndicate—though in a response to our questions (and as the only person to reply to us) he says he was representing the Guinean government’s shareholding in the joint venture and he denies ever having become one of its employees. Mr Thiam went to Madagascar for the negotiation of a deal modelled on the one he made on Guinea’s behalf. Simultaneously, he carried on as mines minister for another year.
Around the same time, Zimbabwe also caught the syndicate’s eye. Mr Pa met Happyton Bonyongwe, the head of the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO), the country’s notorious secret police, which helps to keep Robert Mugabe in power. Mr Pa’s plane frequently showed up at the Harare airport and he bought properties in the capital, including the 20-storey Livingstone House. His two original partners, Mrs Fong and Mrs Lo, became directors in a new company, called Sino-Zimbabwe Development Limited, which received rights to extract oil and gas, and to mine gold, platinum and chromium. In return, the company publicly promised to build railways, airports and public housing. These pledges were valued at $8 billion by Mr Mugabe’s government.
By 2009 the Queensway syndicate spanned the globe from Tanzania and Côte d’Ivoire to Russia and North Korea and on to Indonesia, Malaysia and America. It had bought the JPMorgan Chase building at 23 Wall Street in New York.
A sad, sad Songangol
Nobody should begrudge an entrepreneur commercial success. And China needs the raw materials that the Queensway syndicate can supply. However, there are three worries about the syndicate’s conduct.
The first is personal gain. The terms under which China Sonangol buys oil from Angola have never been made public. However, several informed observers say that the syndicate gets the oil from the Angolan state at a low price that was fixed in 2005 and sells it on to China at today’s market prices. The price at which the contract was fixed is confidential, but Brent crude stood at just under $55 a barrel in 2005; today it is trading above $100. In other words, the syndicate’s mark up could be substantial. Over the years, considering the volume of oil that is being sold to China, its profit could amount to tens of billions of dollars. The Economist ’s requests for comment have gone unanswered. No public statement suggests the terms have been renegotiated since 2005.
Sonangol’s skyscraping ambitions
In return for Angolan oil, the syndicate promised to build infrastructure, including low-cost housing, public water-mains, hydroelectric plants, cross-country roads and railways, according to the government. The country desperately needs such things, to be sure. But their value is unlikely to exceed several billion dollars. That looks like a poor deal for the Angolan people.
In Angola accusations of personal enrichment percolate up towards the top of the state structure. In 2006 the head of the external intelligence service, General Fernando Miala, alleged that $2 billion of Chinese money intended for infrastructure projects had disappeared. He claimed that the funds had been transferred to private accounts in Hong Kong by senior officials, though without naming people mentioned in this article. The general was swiftly sacked, tried and imprisoned (he may, however, now be about to make a comeback to government).
Parts of the Angola-China oil trade appear to be contaminated by conflicts of interest. The Angolan president’s son is said to be a director of China Sonangol, the main trading partner of the state oil company. The Economist’s requests for comment to the companies went unanswered. As well as running both the state oil company and its main customer, Mr Vicente is a director of private shell companies linked to the syndicate. Although these may exist for tax purposes, a report on foreign corruption, prepared last year by the American Senate, reveals that Sonangol was deemed so corrupt in 2003 that Citibank closed all its accounts. The report also says that Mr Vicente personally owns 5% of Sonangol’s house bank which has assets worth $8.2 billion. According to the IMF and the World Bank, billions of dollars have disappeared from Sonangol’s accounts. At one point, Sonangol awarded Mr Vicente a 1% ownership stake in the company he chairs. He was forced to give it back after a public outcry in Angola.
In Guinea criticism is focused on the former mines minister. An unpublished 2009 WikiLeaks cable quotes an American mining executive, whose company stood to lose business in Guinea because of the syndicate, complaining that Mr Thiam has “personally benefited from promoting [the] China International Fund”. Mr Thiam denies this. As a former Wall Street banker, he already had money before he returned to the country of his birth.
The deserted railway
The second complaint about the Queensway syndicate is that in Africa it has failed to meet many of the obligations it took on to win mining licences. Zimbabwe is still awaiting even a fraction of its promised infrastructure. Guinea never received the 100 public buses that were meant to arrive within 45 days of the 2009 deal.
The situation in Angola is more complicated, though also disappointing. Chinese contractors have built some housing and railway lines and the projects were at first financed by the syndicate. Signs saying “China International Fund” appeared on construction sites. But in recent years they have been replaced by those of other Chinese companies. According to Western diplomats and Chinese businessmen, the syndicate stopped paying bills for more than eight months in 2007. All work stopped, 2,000 Angolan day labourers were fired on the Benguela railway project and only a Chinese cook remained on duty. Western diplomats suspected the syndicate was banking on being bailed out by the Angolan government, which had staked its legitimacy on infrastructure development. Soon enough, the government issued treasury bonds worth $3.5 billion to finance the projects. Subcontractors are now paid directly by the Angolan state.
Angola’s wealth isn’t trickling down
Six years after the syndicate arrived more than 90% of the residents of the capital, Luanda, remain without running water. Meanwhile, the syndicate has continued to prosper.
The third complaint against the Queensway syndicate is that its cash props up certain political leaders and thereby fuels violent conflicts. For instance, in Guinea the syndicate came to the rescue of the junta. In September 2009 government men went on the rampage, raping women by the score and massacring more than 150 protesters in a sports stadium, which triggered EU and African Union sanctions. A month later, the syndicate signed its minerals deal, transferring $100m to the cash-strapped junta. Bashir Bah, a member of the opposition, condemned the deal. “First of all it is immoral, and second of all it is illegal,” he said.
The deal caused outrage even inside the government. The prime minister, Kabine Komara, a relatively powerless figure, protested about ministers’ conduct to other officials. A memo from the prime minister’s office, dated November 26th and leaked to Global Witness, declared: “The council of ministers did not discuss or bring up the question of creating a national mining company. What’s more it is not acceptable that a foreign company could become a shareholder in such a company, as it would grant the company, ipso facto, the ownership of all the current and future wealth of the country.” Mr Thiam denies any knowledge of Mr Komara’s complaint.
According to international institutions, the military leaders, who backed Mr Thiam, needed the syndicate’s money if they were to hold on to power. A World Bank official told Western diplomats the junta would “sell the country short on mining revenues and tell the international donors to get lost”. The junta eventually fell and, following elections last year, the minerals deal is now in limbo.
In Zimbabwe the situation is even more egregious. The finance minister, an opposition member of the governing coalition, has blocked extra funding for the CIO, presumably because it backs Mr Mugabe. And yet, it is suddenly flush with cash. In recent months it has reportedly doubled the salaries of agents, acquired hundreds of new off-road vehicles and trained thousands of militiamen who are now in a position to intimidate voters during next year’s elections. Several sources who have looked at the deal concluded that the money came from Mr Pa. They say he struck a side deal with the CIO that gives him access to Zimbabwe’s vast diamond wealth—controlled in part by the CIO. The diamonds were for some years banned from reaching international markets because of global industry prohibitions over violence routinely inflicted on Zimbabwean miners. Yet, Mr Pa is said to buy them and apparently makes payments directly to the CIO, bypassing government coffers.
Little is certain about China Sonangol and China International Fund. Our repeated questions to the companies and their representatives went unanswered. The documents and witnesses we tracked down around the world paint an incomplete picture. But they raise questions of immense public interest.
Oversight of the Queensway syndicate’s businesses is almost non-existent. A decade ago Mr Vicente forbade foreign oil companies in Angola to publish even routine data, on threat of ejection. Since then Sonangol has published some information on its operations. But oil contracts are treated as state secrets. Revenues from deals with the syndicate go to an opaque agency controlled by the president whose accounts are off-limits even to government ministers. Although Sonangol scores reasonably for some criteria, such as revenue, in rankings by Transparency International and Revenue Watch, two lobbies for corporate openness, it still receives bottom rankings for safeguards against corruption.
The syndicate itself is even more opaque. Who ultimately benefits by how much from the lucrative deals is not clear from public records. The syndicate’s corporate structure is fiendishly complex. Individual companies are not vertically integrated—it is not a group in the usual sense. There is no holding company, though the same people keep cropping up as directors in the records of affiliated companies, which are often owned by shell companies registered in lightly regulated tax shelters. Final beneficial ownership is impossible for an outsider to establish.
All this means that the syndicate taints China’s “going out” policy, a cornerstone of the country’s rise in recent years. When the policy works, African resources are swapped for aid, commercial financing and payments in kind such as public infrastructure. But with the syndicate, billions of dollars meant for schools, roads and hospitals have apparently ended up in private accounts. Rather than fixing Africa’s lack of infrastructure, Chinese entrepreneurs and Africa’s governing elites look as if they are conspiring to use the development model as a pretext for plunder.…
e 2 grasroots networks who develope a new paradigm of development economics (1 2)
About the same time -summer of 2008 - the head of the Nobel Peace Judges came from Norway and spoke to Several thousand Bangladesh Youth - you are the epicentre of how to end poverty peacefully- Nobel Peace Judges and laureates will never forget you
Growing up with Asian Giants
Unfortunately the best pro-youth strategists for the future of a nation and superpowerful national politicians seem to have zero understanding of each other. After all youth dont have the vote which politicians curry majorities from. So it was that the quite the most exacting youth strategy I have ever seen - turn bangladesh into an end ;poverty laboratory that china and india want to trade win-wins with was published in 2006 and almost banished from sight within weeks
I sort of understand why National ;politicians in bangladesh banned it but why the rest of the world's aid networks did not pick up this idea remains a very big mystery to me. Love to hear from anyone who feels like discussing this
unclear whether this is 2011's or 2012's line -up http://www.crackingthenutconference.com/speakers.html
African Union Commission
Boulder Institute of Microfinance
BPI Globe BanKO, Philippines
Cardno Emerging Markets
CRDB Bank PLC, Tanzania
Catholic Relief Services
Fair Trade International
Federal Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development, Nigeria
General Mills / Partners in Food Solutions
Greylock Capital Management LLC
Grupo Calleja/Super Selectos Supermarkets
INCOFIN Investment Management
Inter-American Development Bank
Karisimbi Business Partners, Rwanda
Ministry of Agriculture & Livestock, Honduras
Olam Americas Inc
Oxford Policy Management
Red River Foods
Fundacion Sembrar, Bolivia
Social Enterprise Associates
West Africa Trade Hub
Yes Bank, India
environments and set the direction for their country’s transformation. Cracking the Nut 2012 will share competitively selected best practices through five focused themes:
Expand to New Markets. With soaring population rates and rising living standards, agriculture and agribusiness are poised for unparalleled global growth. There is rising demand from growing and increasingly urban populations in developing countries. Sessions under this theme will show you how to identify and serve new markets that offer significant growth and income potential.
Tap New Sources of Supply. With increasing consumer awareness of fair trade, organic and specialty foods, many firms are realizing that sustainable sourcing from aggregated small-scale agricultural producers not only appeals to consumers, but also reduces risks in the supply chain and stabilizes prices. Learn how to tap new sources of supply, certify quality, increase productivity and reduce costs while contributing to sustainable production.
Create Effective Partnerships. Agribusiness success relies on knowing the market, where and how to source affordable and reliable inputs, and access to financial services in a timely manner, especially in the face of complex economic, environmental and social challenges. This theme will highlight how innovative public-private partnerships can overcome obstacles and facilitate access to information and services in a cost-effective manner.
Make Finance Work. Finance and impact investing are expanding in ways that serve rural and agriculture markets, creating competitive, financial and social returns. However, many companies still struggle to make finance work for their suppliers. This theme will showcase innovative approaches to sustainably increase access to finance and investments for rural and agricultural supply chains. Come see how an increasing number of impact investors are designing innovative approaches to sustainably support rural and agricultural markets by combining guarantees, insurance and technical assistance funds to reinforce financial and social impacts of their funds.
Leverage Positive Government Support. This theme will demonstrate how to work with governments to create enabling environments that provide proper incentives for players to invest in rural and agricultural businesses and its supporting infrastructure.
What’s the Return on Investment?
Gain expert insight from industry leaders who want to share their knowledge and experience with you!
Understand the power of public private partnerships to maximize business growth and stability in local and global markets.
Learn how to create successful partnerships in emerging markets that produce triple bottom-line results.
Network and do business with 300+ decision making professionals who have strategic relationships with governments and donors, creating trend setting business development ventures.
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Manager, FS Share Project, Chemonics International
Ms. Adinolfi is an economic growth specialist at Chemonics International with 10 of years of experience in ICT and private sector development. Her areas of specialization are micro, small and medium enterprise finance, and mobile technologies for development. She is currently the technical coordinator for USAID’s $6 million, Financial Sector Knowledge Sharing project (FS Share) providing direct support to USAID’s EGAT office in Washington, DC and USAID missions globally. Conducted mobile phone banking assessments in Ethiopia, Zambia and Tanzania, and provided backstopping to mobile money research and action plan development in Afghanistan, Indonesia and Malawi. Her publications include, FS Share Enabling Mobile Money Interventions.
Country Head of Food and Agribusiness Strategic Advisory & Research, YES BANK, India
Girish Aivalli is Country Head – Food and Agribusiness Strategic Advisory and Research at YES BANK. YES BANK undertakes advisory projects in the areas of Food Processing, Dairy Sector, Large Scale Farming in Africa, Agri-Infra, Supply Chain Management, Modern Terminal Markets and Agro Food Parks. Girish has also worked with Cargill in India, and was heading their procurement and operations for the grains and oilseeds business. Girish also worked in Indonesia and Ivory Coast with Olam International. Girish is well recognized thought leader in the Food and AgriBusiness industry and a member of the Confederation of Indian Industry’s National Council on Agriculture.
Manager, Economic Growth, Cardno Emerging Markets
Cinar Akcin has 10 years of business development and client service experience for private and public sector entities. As a Manager at Cardno Emerging Markets, Mr. Akcin provides technical assistance and project management on international donor projects in the areas of small business growth, local economic development and financial sector reform in Angola, Zambia, Bosnia, and Serbia. He has served as Cardno’s Project Manager for the Zambia PROFIT Project. In that capacity, he also worked with one of Zambia’s largest banks on improving its distribution network to provide access to finance for the rural poor. He holds a Master degree in International Economic Policy from Columbia University
Principal Consultant, Financial and Private Sector Development, Oxford Policy Management, UK
Sukhwinder Arora works as Principal Consultant, Financial and Private Sector Development at Oxford Policy Management, UK. He has 30 years of experience in international development programmes. He has worked on design, as well as delivery and review of policies and programmes to enable poor people to participate in and benefit from financial and other markets. This work included 10 years in direct delivery of development programmes to the poor in India and 11 years as DFID private sector development adviser in India, UK, and Bangladesh. He contributed to the seminal book ‘The Poor and Their Money’ with Stuart Rutherford.
Project Coordinator, Project Gaia
Gulce is the current Project Coordinator at Project Gaia, Inc. Gulce coordinates communications, finance and logistics between Project Gaia's administrative office and its various field sites. She has worked to secure funds to expand Project Gaia's international work. Gulce has field-experience in Ethiopia and research experience in social-impact technologies and public-private cooperation for clean energy development. Gulce holds Bachelor's degrees from Gettysburg College in Political Science and Globalization Studies and is fluent in Turkish and Spanish.
Chief Sustainability Officer, Netafim
Naty Barak is the Chief Sustainability Officer of Netafim, A pioneer and the world-leading provider of Drip Irrigation solutions. Prior to his current position, he served in a number of managerial posts including Director of Marketing, Executive VP of Netafim USA, and President of Netafim South Africa. A member of Kibbutz Hatzerim, Naty studied International Relations and Political Science at The Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and is a graduate of the Executive Management Program at Tel Aviv University's Recanati Graduate School of Business Administration. Netafim is the largest player in the global irrigation industry, combining comprehensive in-house agro-knowledge with professional engineering expertise.
Planning Officer, GIZ
Max Baumann was born in Heidelberg, Germany and studied political science and business administration. After first work experiences in the area of development aid at the United Nations Headquarters in New York and in Agriculture at a consultancy for the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, he joined GIZ (German International Cooperation) in March 2009. Since then he has been working as Planning Officer on several PPP-projects in the field of agricultural extension and education in Africa and Asia.
President & Managing Director, Development & Sustainable Banking, YES BANK, India
aurabh Bhat is the President & Managing Director – Development and Sustainable Banking (DSB) at YES BANK. Saurabh is also responsible for developing YES BANK’s Knowledge Management practice in the Development Banking Space and, as part of his overall leadership, has a Business Consulting team focused on the Food & Agri space. Prior to joining YES BANK, Saurabh was the Country Head – Structured and Project Finance at Barclays Bank, India. He has over 14 years of experience in various capacities in leading organizations like Citibank, Rabobank, Calyon Bank and ICICI Limited. Saurabh holds an MBA Degree in Finance from XLRI, Jamshedpur and a B.Tech (Chemical) from IIT Bombay.
Director, Food Analytics, Fintrac
Russell Brott is the Director for Food Analytics at Fintrac Inc, a leading US-based agriculture consultancy. In this capacity he manages the company’s portfolio of projects and activities focused on commercial market analysis, food security analysis and analysis of the enabling environment for agriculture. Russell led the development of USAID’s AgCLIR diagnostic, a tool widely used by the US Government for understanding strengths, weaknesses and priorities for legal, regulatory and institutional reform in the agriculture sector. He has previously worked and lived in Africa and Latin America.
Director of Finance and Business, West Africa Trade Hub
Roger T. Brou joined the Trade Hub as the Business & Finance Director, bringing expertise in agribusiness financing, project finance, and bank-to-bank finance. Brou taught mathematics and science in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, before moving to the U.S. to earn a bachelor’s degree in chemistry and an MBA. Roger was as an investment officer and then regional manager for HSBC in West Africa and was based in Abidjan. Roger later joined Phoenix Capital, an equity firm, as Project Director with a focus on Energy. Before joining the Trade Hub, Roger founded his own agribusiness and logistic company which is was running in Cote d’Ivoire.
Senior Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, TechnoServe
David Browning is a Senior Vice-President at TechnoServe and head of TechnoServe’s global coffee practice. David joined TechnoServe in 2003 and has served as Regional Director for Latin America, Vice President for Business Development, and Senior Vice President, Coffee Initiative. He currently manages TechnoServe’s Strategic Initiatives. Prior to joining TechnoServe, David worked for McKinsey and Company. Before McKinsey, David held positions in the manufacturing, petroleum, and retail industries. David holds an MBA from Yale University, as well as a Bachelor’s degree in Marketing, and a Master’s degree in Advanced Finance from the University of New South Wales in Sydney Australia.
Manager of Agriculture and Rural Development
Mark is Manager of the Agriculture and Rural Development Department of the World Bank. He joined the World Bank in 1981, after working as an Overseas Representative for John Deere Intercontinental, Ltd., based in Thailand. In 2000, he was appointed Manager of the Agriculture and Rural Development for Latin America. In 2007, Mr. Cackler was appointed Manager of the Agriculture and Rural Development Department of the World Bank, where he oversees the World Bank’s global programs for rural poverty alleviation, agriculture and natural resources management. He has economics degrees from Oberlin College and the University of Jyvaskyla (Finland), and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Anita is President and Founder of AZMJ, a global consulting firm that specializes in rural and agricultural finance and enterprise development in developing countries. Anita is an agricultural finance and value chain specialist with more than 20 years of experience in international finance and private sector development. Previously, she worked for Chemonics International, managing projects related to SME finance, leasing and bank restructuring, as well as prudential regulation and supervision of microfinance institutions. She also led research on agricultural value chains and designed training tools as Director of the AMAP/Knowledge Generation project.
Vice President, Ideas42
Saugato Datta is a Vice President at Ideas42. He works with partners to design, test and scale policies and products that use behavioral economics to benefit poor people in developing countries. He is also responsible for Ideas42's broader education and dissemination activities. Before joining Ideas 42, Saugato spent 3 years writing about economics at The Econimist in London. Prior to this, he was a researcher at the World Bank in Washington, D.C. He has published papers on development and labor markets, and is the editor of "Economics: Making Sense of the Modern Economy", the Economist's guide to economics, published in 2011.
Loïc De Cannière
Managing Director, Incofin Investment Management
Loïc De Cannière joined Incofin Investment management as CEO in 2001. Before joining Incofin, Loïc worked for 6 years at Dredging International, one of the largest marine engineering companies in the world, where he was responsible for structured finance operations. He also served as chief of staff of the Minister President of the Government of Flanders (Belgium) and vice-chief of staff of the Minister of Public Works of Belgium. Loïc studied economics at the University of Louvain and philosophy at the Faculty of Philosophy in Munich. He is fluent in English, French, Dutch, German and Spanish.
Director, Youth & Financial Services, MEDA
Jennifer Denomy is the Director of Youth and Financial Services at MEDA.. She manages projects in Egypt, Morocco and Afghanistan, supporting non-formal education, workplace safety initiatives and access to decent work for youth. She also facilitates the SEEP Network’s “Innovations in Youth Financial Services” Practitioner Learning Program. Prior to joining MEDA, Jennifer worked as a pedagogical manager of a teacher training center in Germany and a curriculum designer for BRAC’s Nonformal Primary Education Program in Bangladesh. Jennifer holds an M.Ed. in Comparative, International and Development Education from the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education at the University of Toronto and an MA from McGill University.
Technical Director, Economic Growth, Cardno Emerging Markets
Joe Dougherty has been a trusted advisor to leading financial institutions, governments, corporations and non-profit agencies for twenty years, during which time he has worked in thirty countries. Early in his career, Joe worked with an agricultural export company in Costa Rica and then with Bank of Ireland’s Agribusiness Unit. More recently, he served as Senior Financial Sector Advisor on USAID’s landmark PROFIT project in Zambia and he currently oversees the AusAID-funded Market Development Facility in Fiji. An essay he wrote on sustainable agricultural development in Africa was published in USAID’s Frontiers in Development in May 2012.
Financial Specialist, ACDI/VOCA
Fleming Duarte in an international consultant in project management and microfinance, and is currently Project Director on USAID/Paraguay Productivo. For the last 15 years, he has performed as senior investment and management roles in the private sector as well as with multilateral organizations. He has worked for the last ten years in providing banking advisory services to SMEs in México, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Chile, Brazil and Paraguay. Previously, he has been Project Director for the IADB Global Microcredit Program at the Central Bank, a Program Analyst for the Private Sector Development Program at UNDP, and an SME operations specialist at IADB.
President, Ecom Trading
Henry is President/CEO of Atlantic (USA), as well as a Managing Director of the parent company Ecom AgroIndustrial Co., a leading global merchant in coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton. He joined Atlantic in 1988 and has guided the firm to be the most successful physical coffee and cocoa merchant in North America. Henry started his career in commodities with ACLI International after attaining a B.A. from Gettysburg College. In 1975, he moved to Colombia to be first Assistant Manager then co-Manager of Compania Cafetera de Manizales, Ltda. In 1986, he became first Vice-President and then President of Inter-Continental de Cafe, Inc. (New York), continuing his role as merchant, hedger, and risk manager.
Executive Director, Partners in Food Solutions/General Mills
Jeff serves as the Founding Executive Director of Partners in Food Solutions, a consortium of leading global food companies - General Mills, Cargill and DSM - who are committed to improving food security by sharing the knowledge and expertise of their employees with small and growing food processors across Africa. Jeff’s current work is shaped by having spent half his career in the business world and the other half in the development world (including two years in Zambia), leading to a unique and practical understanding of how both of these sectors can benefit from the other.
Director, Division of Rural Development and Agriculture, GIZ
Albert Engel is Director of the Division Rural Development and Agriculture at the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). Previously, he worked as GIZ Sector Coordinator in Namibia where he was responsible for support to land reform, rural development and natural resources management. From 1995 to 2000 he worked as Adviser for rural development in Southern Africa. Before joining GTZ, he was partner at Team Consult Berlin a consulting firm specialised on project management and organisational development. Mr. Engel holds a MSc. in agronomy from University of Göttingen and postgraduate degrees in international rural / agricultural development from Technical University Berlin and Cornell University, Ithaca, NY.
Senior Investment Officer, FOMIN
Alejandro is an Agricultural Economist by training, and currently leads the Agribusiness Value Chain unit with the Multilateral Investment Fund. There, he has lead multiple projects in sustainable agriculture, financing of farmer cooperatives, development of investment vehicles for agricultural finance, and rural microfinance. Previously, he worked at Du Pont in the Global Supply Chain group of Tyvek, working on the development of global demand planning and financial forecasting tools. Earlier, Alejandro worked at MEDA in Bolivia and Peru as a technical advisor in financial management with cooperatives and farmer associations in the export sector. Later, Alejandro was an investment analyst for Sarona Global Investment Funds.
Vice President, ideas42
Alexandra Fiorillo is a Vice President for International Development at ideas42, where she manages product, policy and process innovation, field project implementation and analysis for international projects. Previously, Alexandra was Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of MicroFinance Transparency and Associate Director at ACCION International in Global Investments and Marketing and Product Development. In her 11 year career in microfinance and international development, she has worked as a microfinance consultant to Microfund for Women in Jordan, DFID's Financial Sector Deepening Project of Uganda, and Development Alternatives, Inc./USAID. Alexandra holds a Master’s degree from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor of Arts from Connecticut College.…
politicians. So Americans in that decade brought the world's cleanest environment revolution, as they triumphed over that pollutant vehicle the horse, put mankind on motor cars' wheels, and built sudden industrial strength which alone meant that Hitler, who by my 18th Christmas in 1941 held Europe from Atlantic to 20 miles from Moscow, was not quite strong enough to shove into gas ovens tiresomely argumentative people like me - and it would later, sir, have been you and all those so happily arguing still in this House.
After the war, we dinosaurs doddered. As I think the second oldest speaker tonight, I am properly desolate, sir, that we hand on to you of my granddaughters' generation an advanced world, at present divided into what comprehensive schoolteachers would call three halves.
In the 15 countries of our west European home, politicians spend between 42% and 63% of our GDPs, in deadening ways so job-losing and so sclerotic that - has old Oxford not noticed this, or does its brain hurt? - unemployment, especially for those whose European youth has been less gilded than yours, rises at each comparable stage of each successive trade cycle, and must thus continue until you see why.
Politicians' spend of GDP dwindles to "only" 35% in Europe's next two clear competitor countries. In America and in Japan which I briefly economically advised 35 years ago when its real GDP at yen exchange rate was one eighth of what it is now. The surge after 1950 by Hiroshimaed Japan in (eg) life expectancy (49 years for a Japanese in 1950, way over our 79 for its old ladies now) - plus its leapfrog beyond us in living standards, in education for its humblest inter-city children circa six times better than ours, in lower crime - was to us who tended it then by far the most exciting sudden forward leap in all the economic history of the world. Do note that it started, and had its main impetus, when its politicians spent only 24% of its GDP. In both Japan and America state spending has been subjected to an upward creep - a good soubriquet, that, for Clinton and Blair and Hashimoto - but since politicians' GDP pinch is still curbed to only 35%, both still exceed Europe in faster innovation and thus fuller employment.
The 1950s-1960s role of Japan is now carried forward by the third group of competitors poised to pinch our patrimony. The Hong Kongs and Singapores, which were coolie countries when I first saw them, have duly passed Britain in living standards, in inner city non-yobdom, in far better education than ours for the mass of their 17 year olds - even though, no sir, because their politicians spend, by IMF valuation, only 18% of their GDPs.
Has the penny really not dropped among Oxford's dreaming spires? When technology surges forward as in this computer age, the new wealth of nations springs from three main manifestations of human wit. One, a relentless daily search among a million competing profit centres on how best next to improve use of that technology next morning. Second, maximum competition in forecasting and guessing and experimenting with what the future may bring. Never allow politicians' monopoly in that. Third, I am sorry if this offends, avoid yesterday-cuddling trade unionisation of who does which, when, at what fixed price, and traditionally how. In our lifetime, it has been proven (a) that free markets bring forth those three qualities circa six times more efficaciously than when politicians say "let's appoint a monopoly organisation to produce some bright wheeze like a channel tunnel", ooh; and proven (b) that international institutions and politicians (of all parties) fib incredibly about the statistical results of this.
When Brussels said that communist East Germany had surpassed Harold Wilson's Britain in prosperity, and Ted Heath and a credulous BBC trilled agreement, I went to East Germany. Anybody who noticed a Trabant was not worth a Mercedes, could see East Germany outproduced even Wilson's Britain only in pollution and steroid-drugged lady shot-putters. In its most showpiece factories I assessed productivity at some one-sixth of Wilson's Britain's factories per man and per almost every other unit of input. When the Berlin Wall came down, my assessment proved to have been a little too kind to socialism as usual. If you compared the state factories of North Korea with the private factories of South Korea, you'd get the more dramatic figures typical of Asia. In the early 1990s the nationalised telephone utility of India had 40 times more employees than the privatised telephone utility of Thailand, although little Thailand was then just passing mighty India in the number of telephones actually working.
In Europe, we have the usual figures which might seem rude to the right honourable ex-member of Ebbw Vale. In the dozen years since British steel was privatised, its productivity per man has risen six times. If he says this is because of wicked sackings and shuttings, remember that Oxford's Attlee in 1947 told Britain's then 367,000 coalminers that coming public ownership would ensure nobody producing such valuable stuff as coal would lose his job this century. It is only the long overdue privatisation that can save even 12,000 of those jobs now, but don't let me claw at scabs of old wounds.
The question for your generation, sir, is whether you are going to drive ever more underclass Britons into unemployment by allowing five vital industries (accounting for three quarters of public expenditure) to be run by politicians at circa one sixth the efficiency that freer markets would bring. These are (1) social security insurance; (2) education; (3) health insurance; (4) a regulatory bureaucracy now five times larger than in Kaiser Wilhelm's Prussia; (5) crime non-prevention.
In education you will have to move to competitive vouchers, with payments highest for those who set up competitive schools in the worst inner cities, where state teaching of both facts and behaviour has incredibly declined in the past 50 years, while private industry has spread once unimaginable durables like colour tvs from 0 to 98% of households. One part of education (assessing by computer a particular child's learning pattern, seizing from that the next questions or facts to impart) will become telecommunicable from far countries. Bovine politicians don't see the same is true of social security insurance (if clients choose to stick to behaviourial norms like staying in married families, you can insure them and theirs far more cheaply against most social ills), and in health insurance (where doctors from Singapore will diagnose the right medical and diet regimes for the tummy from Wigan just X-rayed down their screens). The world's greatest experts on these three and other telecommutable subjects will congregate in the lands with lowest taxation, and all of you voting against tonight's motion will just be brutalising, ruining and killing poorer people if you say that's jolly unfair to British politicians' monopoly welfare state.
Crime rates will depend on whether you elect over-arrogant politicians. In the first decade of my life America produced gangsterdom as well as boom, because its politicians (in a folly my dad said would never be repeated) decreed alcohol could only be sold by Capone's vicious criminals. In this last decade of my life two-thirds of British crime is drug-related, because politicians decree sales of other drugs must be profitably reserved only for criminals. Under any sensible tax plus licensing regime such as we now have for alcohol, you don't get 15-year olds hooked on a wild and muggery-necessitating £200 a day alcohol mania, because a pub, fearing a loss of licence, would refer any such client for special treatment. In crime prevention we will also have to move to the methods of Japan, which has one seventh as many lawyers as we, a court system based on "did he do it, and how most cheaply to stop him doing it again?" which does not include stuffing hordes into expensive British prisons which statistically make inmates more likely to reoffend.
Can you see any other trade apart from heavily trade unionised British prison screws who have actual negative gross production? Yes, a few feet away. A chart from that Swedish Royal Commission chaired by the profs who award the Nobel prize in economics showed that the most effective number of members of parliament for a country of Britain's size would be 90-something. We have 651, and for the imminent general election they have pushed it up to 659 jobs for the boys.
I'd like to end on a more kindly note. If I'd been told in youth that politicians would spend 42% of Britain's GDP, which is more than Hitler spent of Germany's GDP in 1937, I'd have assumed we would by now be living under a monstrous tyranny. After 50 years of reporting on parliament, let me end with my favourite story which shows it just as an elephant's joke. The story is denied by the two self-credulous politicians concerned, but confirmed by the Americans who observed it. One day in the mid-80s, a party of American tourists was as usual being shown reverently around the palace of Westminster. The Lord Chancellor of England appeared in full gig on a staircase above them, and he needed to talk, on some matter of altering a timetable, to the Right Hon gent's successor as Labour leader who was disappearing down a corridor the other way. so Lord Chancellor Hailsham, in full-bottomed wig and black and gold robe, called to the other by his Christian name. Over the heads of the American tourists, he bellowed "Neil".
Instantly, and without hesitation, all the American tourists in the middle fell fully to their knees. A similar obsequiousness is not required to all the forecasts I have shouted at you this evening. A small genuflection will suffice to the simple rule by which your generation could octuple Britain's real national income during the 40 years of marvellously increasing computer technology which will be your working lives. That rule, sir, is never, never, allow politicians to pinch and spend more than a quarter of GDP. Everything will be so easy for the poorest of your contemporaries if only you understand that."
Growth depends on never letting politicians spend more than one quarter of GDP
Oxford Union Debate of 30 May 1996
For the motion : Norman Macrae (CBE and Japanese Order of the Rising Sun), economist, market futurologist, writer of over 2000 editorials, mainly retired after 5 decades of journalism at The Economist and The Sunday Times
Against the motion: Rt Honourable Michael Foot, UK Member of Parliament for Plymouth (1945-1955), Ebbw Vale (1960-1983), Leader of the Labour Party (1980-1983) and succeeded by Rt Hon Neil Kinnock (1983-1992…
BRI.school ENTREPRENEURIAL REVOLUTION NETWORK BENCHMARKS 2025now : Remembering Norman Macrae
how do humans design futures?-in the 2020s decade of the sdgs – this question has never had moore urgency. to be or not t be/ – ref to lessons of deming or keynes, or glasgow university alumni smith and 200 years of hi-trust economics mapmaking later fazle aded - we now know how-a man made system is defined by one goal uniting generations- a system multiplies connected peoples work and demands either accelerating progress to its goal or collapsing - sir fazle abed died dec 2020 - so who are his modt active scholars networks empowering youth with his knohow n- soros with jim kim paul farmer leon botstein and with particular contexts- girls village development and with ba-ki moon global climate adaptability where cop26 november will be a great chance to renuite with 260 years of adam smith and james watts purposes there is no point in connecting with system mentors unless you want to end poverty-specifically we interpret sdg 1 as meaning mext girl or boy born has fair chance at free happy an productive life as we seek to make any community a child is born into a thriving space to grow up between discover of new worlds in 1500 and 1945 systems got worse and worse on the goal eg processes like slavery emerged- and ultimately the world was designed around a handful of big empires and often only the most powerful men in those empires. 4 amazing human-tech systems were invented to start massive use by 1960 borlaug agriculture and related solutions every poorest village (2/3people still had no access to electricity) could action learn person to person- deming engineering whose goal was zero defects by helping workers humanize machines- this could even allowed thousands of small suppliers to be best at one part in machines assembled from all those parts) – although americans invented these solution asia most needed them and joyfully became world class at them- up to 2 billion people were helped to end poverty through sharing this knowhow- unlike consuming up things actionable knowhow multiplies value in use when it links through every community that needs it the other two technologies space and media and satellite telecoms, and digital analytic power looked promising- by 1965 alumni of moore promised to multiply 100 fold efficiency of these core tech each decade to 2030- that would be a trillion tmes moore than was needed to land on the moon in 1960s. you might think this tech could improve race to end poverty- and initially it did but by 1990 it was designed around the long term goal of making 10 men richer than 40% poorest- these men also got involved in complex vested interests so that the vast majority of politicians in brussels and dc backed the big get bigger - often they used fake media to hide what they were doing to climate and other stuff that a world trebling in population size d\from 1945 to 2030 also needed to map. so the good and bad news is we the people need to reapply all techs where they are only serving rich men and politicians od every party who have taken us to the brink of ending our species- these are the most exciting times to be alive - we the 3 generations children parents grandparents have until 2030 to design new system orbits gravitated around goal 1 and navigating the un's other 17 goals do you want to help/ 8 cities we spend most time helping students exchange sustainability solutions 2018-2019 BR0 Beijing Hangzhou: BR6 Geneva, Luxembourg, BR2 Dhaka, Delhi, BR1 Tokyo, Seoul
Map with Belt Road Imagineers :where do you want to partner in sustaining world
Dad (Norman Macrae) created the genre Entrepreneurial Revolution to debate how to make the net generation the most productive and collaborative . We had first participated in computer assisted learning experiments in 1972. Welcome to more than 40 years of linking pro-youth economics networks- debating can the internet be the smartest media our species has ever collaborated around?
Foundation Norman Macrae- The Economist's Pro-Youth Economist
5801 Nicholson Lane Suite 404RockvilleMD20852 tel 301 881 1655 email firstname.lastname@example.org
2013 = 170th Year of The Economist being Founded to End Hunger
2010s = Worldwide Youth's most productive and collaborative decade
1972: Norman Macrae starts up Entrepreneurial Revolution debates in The Economist. Will we the peoples be in time to change 20th C largest system designs and make 2010s worldwide youth's most productive time? or will we go global in a way that ends sustainability of ever more villages/communities? Drayton was inspired by this genre to coin social entrepreneur in 1978 ,,continue the futures debate here
world favorite moocs-40th annual top 10 league table