s leading youth technology wizards and collaboration NGO leaders
.Asian Sample Tour of Macrae's Curriculum of Entrepreneurial Revolution .. sample tour of Norman Macrae- 15 years into his career at The Economist, Normanis asked to sign his first survey
1962 Consider Japan:
his greatest debates on youth futures start in 1972 when he saw students experimenting with digital networks:
1972's Next 40 Years ;
1976's Coming Entrepreneurial Revolution;
I was very sorry to read in last week's "Economist" magazine of the death of Norman Macrae, who was its deputy editor for many years.
Norman Macrae was the first journalist to recognise the growing economic importance of Japan in the 1960s. His seminal essay "Consider Japan" (which can be read in the Norman Macrae archive) was published in September 1962, is a fascinating and powerful analysis of the Japanese economy at that time, and was an important corrective to those who still thought justin terms of Japan as a poor, developing country producing cheap counterfeit goods. The "Economist" obituary gives many other examples of Macrae's prescience and far-sightedness. The sudden jolt of recognition that Japan was about to become - as it had in the late 19th Century after the Meiji Restoration - an industrial giant (two years after "Consider Japan" the world woke up to Japan's success with the Tokyo Olympics) led directly to the British Government's trade promotion activities that I listed in my last article on the blog, the setting up in the early 1970s of the Exports to Japan Unit in the then Department of Trade, and the emphasis in this Embassy's work on trade and investment links with Japan,that lasts to this day. Do read the "Economist"'s obituary of Norman Macrae - it is a tribute to a massively influential thinker, whose impact is still felt today in the work we do here in Tokyo.…
Norman Macrae, who was its deputy editor for many years.
Norman Macrae was the first journalist to recognise the growing economic importance of Japan in the 1960s. His seminal essay "Consider Japan" (which can be read in the Norman Macrae Archive) was published in September 1962, is a fascinating and powerful analysis of the Japanese economy at that time, and was an important corrective to those who still thought justin terms of Japan as a poor, developing country producing cheap counterfeit goods. The "Economist" obituary gives many other examples of Macrae's prescience and far-sightedness. The sudden jolt of recognition that Japan was about to become - as it had in the late 19th Century after the Meiji Restoration - an industrial giant (two years after "Consider Japan" the world woke up to Japan's success with the Tokyo Olympics) led directly to the British Government's trade promotion activities that I listed in my last article on the blog, the setting up in the early 1970s of the Exports to Japan Unit in the then Department of Trade, and the emphasis in this Embassy's work on trade and investment links with Japan,that lasts to this day. Do read the "Economist"'s obituary of Norman Macrae - it is a tribute to a massively influential thinker, whose impact is still felt today in the work we do here in Tokyo.…
, It has been credited by many Japanese as being the first account of how Japan was changing after the Second World War, and how the Japanese themselves were thriving now they had control of their own economy. When Norman Macrae retired, he was honoured by the Emperor of Japan with the Order of the Rising Sun, due in part to this survey.
The Most Exciting Example
At the end of 1951 Mr Joseph M. Dodge, the Detroit banker who had tried (without consistent success) to impose stern policies of demand restraint upon the Japanese government during the dynasty of General MacArthur, shook the dust of a once more independent Tokyo off his feet. His parting message was not designed further to endear him to the Japanese people. “At present,” declared Mr Dodge severely, “Japan is suffering from a plague of false legends, which include some dangerous delusions.” He then listed fifteen of these delusions, in language which will strike familiar chords for connoisseurs of recent British cabinet ministers’ speeches. The delusions included:
That increased production without a parallel increase in exports represents sound progress.... That inflation can easily be offset by increased production. ... That a nation that must export to live can afford to price itself out of its export markets with a domestic inflation. ... That granting progressively larger amounts of commercial bank credit for capital purposes can be substituted for the normal processes of capital accumulation....
“The progress and present favourable status of Japan,” concluded Mr Dodge, “has been the result of extremely favourable external circumstances, which cannot be expected to be repeated and continued indefinitely.” He then returned to the United States (average growth rate since then about 2½ per cent per annum), and sat down in his Detroit bank awaiting Japan’s inevitable crash.
In the decade since then Japan, continuing and following almost precisely the policies which Mr Dodge had castigated and opposed, has seen its real national product increase at an average pace of over 9 per cent a year, its industrial production and rate of manufacturing exports more than quadruple, its urban population make the great breakthrough into the first modern consumer oriented economy in Asia. In the process it has seen the average Japanese’s expectation of life (now just over 65 for a man, just over 70 for a woman) rise to ages that are now actually ten years longer than they were only twelve years ago. There are some who will regard this last achievement alone as one of the most exciting and extraordinary sudden forward leaps in the entire economic history of the world.
Moreover, we are talking here not only of a trailblazing pioneer for Asia; we are dealing with a story that has by now deep implications and parallels for Europe as well. From the welter of remarkable sets of figures about modern Japan, British readers should perhaps first pick out two. First, of the babies who were born in the year after General Doolittle’s bombs first fell on Tokyo, so far as one can see from the available educational statistics, only just over 40 per cent left school at the minimum leaving age of 15 in 1958; another 45 per cent or so stayed on at high school until 18; and more than another 10 per cent are currently passing through college or university. The equivalent figures in Britain were over 60 per cent leaving school at 15, around 30 per cent at 16 to 18, and only about 7 per cent going on to college or university. Moreover, the bias of later education in Japan is much more heavily technical, and their big firms train skilled workers more assiduously and deliberately than most of their rivals in Britain. Those Englishmen who think of Japan as a backward country of adaptable but unskilled labour are talking nowadays through their hats as far as Japan’s new and younger workers are concerned; this is, in point of fact, a more lengthily educated and technologically skilled generation of young Japanese who are now moving into their modern factories than their contemporaries among young people in Britain.
Secondly, investment in productive capital equipment in Japanese industry in recent years, on a straight yen-sterling exchange rate basis, seems to have been about one-third larger than equivalent investment in industry in Britain. Admittedly, Japan has a labour force nearly twice as large as Britain; but in the competitive, non-agricultural, big-company, modern sector of industry – into which the majority of both the new Japanese investments and new young Japanese workers are moving – Japan’s total labour force is actually still rather smaller than ours. This new generation of more skilled Japanese is moving into factories where entrepreneurs are currently putting behind each one of them in the larger factories a greater force of new and modern capital equipment per head than is being put behind their rather less educated and less well trained contemporaries in Britain; in a few years’ time, on present trends, logic would suggest that they could beat us competitively in a much wider field of industry than most people in Britain at present begin to imagine – even if their wage rates in this modern section of industry do at last go up towards our standards too.
All this has been achieved in a country which seventeen years ago lay in ruins, which even ten years ago had only just re-attained its prewar level of production, and which has suffered far greater disabilities in its traditional export markets (because of the nature of its exports, and the closing of China) than postwar Britain has done. If all this is the result of internal policies which wise men thought would bring about a crash, then, in the name of simple economic common sense, government economists and apostles of conventional economic wisdom from the entire world should be coming to Japan to study just how to emulate it.
The trouble is that one is fearful that conventional wisdom may be going to stop the advance instead. One of the done things to say in Japan in early 1962 – it was said to your correspondent on more than one occasion was that the Japanese must now learn respectable economics from the British and slow down their rate of growth (perhaps permanently) in order to push the pressure on their resources down. This seems a very curious view. For consider the contrast between Japan and Britain, two countries with very similar import structures and an astonishingly similar tendency to run into import deficit at one particular stage of the internal trade cycle. Consider it even in terms of the export figures which British spokesmen themselves generally think should be the main criteria. Japan in the last eight years has marked up the biggest rate of growth in both production and exports in the world (217 per cent increase in industrial production from 1953 to 1961, 232 per cent increase in exports). Britain, by following an almost diametrically opposite policy, has marked up one of the slowest rates of increase in both (28 per cent increase in production, 42 per cent increase in exports). Obviously in these circumstances the British economy has lessons to learn from the Japanese, not the other way round. This will set out your correspondents’ view – both for western and eastern ears – on what those lessons are.
You can find whole survey chapter by chapter below but please note other links inside these files no longer go anywhere! Some graphs may also be missing: sorry!
Consider Japan consider_japan1.html The Most Exciting Example
Not so exceptional case consider_japan2.html
Jobs for a Lifetime consider_japan3.html
Living Standards consider_japan4.html
Easy Budgets... consider_japan5.html
...But Tight Money consider_japan6.html
After the Zaibatsu consider_japan7.html
The Planning of Exports consider_japan8.html
Can it Last? consider_japan9.html
Savers Like the Swiss? consider_japan10.html
PART 2 : Lessons for Developers consider_japan11.html
The Front Runners consider_japan12.html
Unions, Management, Competition consider_japan13.html
Technicians & Troublemakers consider_japan14.html
South Seas Shuffle consider_japan15.html
arch for GG book of world record job creators of netgeneration
Regarding Japan's Goodwill Mission to worldwide youth
This is a good opportunity to know about Japanese culture and political landscape to do business in here. [5/1/2014 10:15:00 PM] Atsu: We Japan would need more global-based organization familiar with both Japanese and global business landscape as missionary. The most interesting point is both international organizations and Japanese ones confessed it to us many times, 'we need a connector', not a person, but a brand-new global-based organization.
[5/1/2014 10:16:39 PM] chrismacraedc: yes i think we need some organisations valued by youth as most collaborative channels
Regarding Politics of Our Nation's Universities as Collaboration becomes Greatest Innovation Advantage
(Consider as just one innovation dynamic) a political landscape between Kyushu University and The University of Tokyo as regards to context of conflicts between Japanese Corporations and Universities. In this regard, a global- based organization like us is an ideal position to bridge between global entities and Japanese ones. That is why Akira Foundation has been asked many time by such a renowned global organizations including the World Summit in Innovation and Entrepreneurship, American Councils, to name a few. eg: our partner American Councils for International Education had a wide range of programs and MOOC across the globe. The US Department also has supported American a Councils for over the decades. Practically For example, before starting TOMODACHI program to connect clean energy solutions for the nuclear'tsunami crisis region: together with American Councils of International Education in Japan, firstly, they gave us a title, Country Director Japan for the program, then, we Akira Foundation with such a title set a wide range of discussion tables for more than 30 Japanese institutions, organizations, corporations to explain the program and ask them to join the project. Culturally we hope It can work out very well even American Councils did not have any branch office as well as no presence in here.
Optimism about The Crisis if Urgency - more 1
Last but not the least, this kind of 'swift action' is NOT a Japanese standard, as you might notice. Because I am president and Akira Foundation is a global- based organization, this kinds of swift actions are possible...
ae, who was its deputy editor for many years.
Norman Macrae was the first journalist to recognise the growing economic importance of Japan in the 1960s. His seminal essay "Consider Japan" (which can be read in the Norman Macrae archive) was published in September 1962, is a fascinating and powerful analysis of the Japanese economy at that time, and was an important corrective to those who still thought just in terms of Japan as a poor, developing country producing cheap counterfeit goods. The "Economist" obituary gives many other examples of Macrae's prescience and far-sightedness. The sudden jolt of recognition that Japan was about to become - as it had in the late 19th Century after the Meiji Restoration - an industrial giant (two years after "Consider Japan" the world woke up to Japan's success with the Tokyo Olympics) led directly to the British Government's trade promotion activities that I listed in my last article on the blog, the setting up in the early 1970s of the Exports to Japan Unit in the then Department of Trade, and the emphasis in this Embassy's work on trade and investment links with Japan, that lasts to this day. Do read the "Economist"'s obituary of Norman Macrae - it is a tribute to a massively influential thinker, whose impact is still felt today in the work we do here in Tokyo. David Warren...
Norman Macrae - Telegraph ObituariesSimilar Jun 22, 2010 – On his retirement in 1988 Macrae was awarded the Order of the Rising Sun by the Japanese Emperor – an honour, one profile noted, that gave him "almost childish delight". ... In a book written in 1984, The 2024 Report: a future history of the next 40 years, he wrote: "Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be miniaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984."
Order of the Rising Sun - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The modern version of this honor has been conferred on non-Japanese recipients beginning in 1981. The awarding of the Order is administered by the Decoration Bureau of Office of the Prime Minister. It is awarded in the name of the Emperor
Cover The Economist. Saturday, 1 September 1962. Page 47. Vol 204, issue 6210.
Consider Japan Part 1 - Survey by Norman Macrae
The Most Exciting Example News The Economist. Saturday, 1 September 1962. Pages 53,54. Vol 204, issue 6210.
Consider Japan Part 2
Lessons for Developers? The Economist. Saturday, 8 September 1962. Pages 57-61. Vol 204, issue 6211.
mentions of japan in The Economist
140 in 1962
645 1963 including A Sun Still Rising (Japan is too important a country for the West to ignore its interests) Editorial LeadersThe Economist. Saturday, 3 March 1962.Pages 18,19. Vol 202, issue 6184.
741 in 1964
745 in 1965
The Risen Sun Norman Macrae's Second Survey on Japan The Economist. Saturday, 27 May 1967. Page s9. Vol 223, issue 6457.
The Risen Sun - II (The Import Balancing Trick)
Asia Pacific Century
The Economist. Saturday, 4 January 1975. Pages 15-18. Vol 254, issue 6854.
Tomorrow's workshop -
2 billion people - novel suggestions for East Asia
News The Economist. Saturday, 7 May 1977. Pages s7-s11. Vol 263, issue 6975.
versity of Tokyo, will hold some significant conference on May 28th. At this event, you could meet three high level persons, including Sir Mark Moody-Stuart who is Chairman of the UN Global Compact Foundation and former Chairman of the Royal Dutch/She'll Group, Ms. Iyabo Obasanjo who is the daughter of former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and former Health Commissioner in Nigeria, and Tri Mumpumi who is Executive Director of INELA Foundation and Ashoka Fellow, introduced and saluted by President Obama in his speech at the Presidential Summit on Entrepreneurship in Washington in 2010. So, I can recommend it to you if you could make yourself free around the date of May 28th in here, Tokyo, while to meet and exchange your ideas and thoughts on collaboration between us.
My partner Hirofumi Yokoi and I are truly happy to meet you oh here Tokyo, even if you could stay for a couple of days. As I mentioned before, you can meet several high level persons at the conference, to be held at the University of Tokyo as well as two more our friends from the US around the date of 28May, including Sam Kaner who is regarded as one of the nation's leading experts on consensus decision-making and the senior author of the one of the best seller book, Facilitator's Guide to Participatory Decision-Linda Bernardi, author of ‘Provoke: Why the Global Culture of Disruption is the Only Hope for Innovation’. Hopefully, you could enjoy your stay in here Tokyo together with these like-minded persons.
tsu [4/25/2014 9:22:24 PM] Atsu: TW, I believe two of you know the Grameen-Jameel. Abdul Latif Jameel's family and my family have built close relationships for more than decades. Jameel also established the world renowned platform, Andul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab across the planet together with MIT. Of corse, Jameel is a friend of Yunus, so I firmly believe this would be impactful for our Summit to Atlanta.
As Country Director, Japan, AY is responsible for the TOMODACHI US-Japan Youth Exchange to rebuild the north of Japan, hit by massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011, led by the US Government and the US-Japan Council. I have been connected with Iren Hirano, President of the US-Japan Council who has a close relationship with the Consulate-General of Japan in Atlanta (please visit: http://www.atlanta.us.emb-japan.go.jp/janetikeda.html ). Before contacting and discussing with Iren Hirano, it would be great if I could have some brochure or materials to explain what will happen in the 2015 Atlanta as well as what the Yunus Creative Lab Inc. will do and what will be expected from the Consulate-General of Japan in Atlanta. I think It would be a good start when we will meet together in person in here Tokyo around the last week of this May.
Please visit this website and register as early as possible due to a few vacant seats available. Additionally, we can meet in person one of three guest speakers, Tri Mumpuni, Ashoka Fellow and CEO of IBEKA who was introduced to President Obama at the Presidential Summit on Entrepreneurship in Washington, saluting her in Obama's speech. Tri is also a friend of mine and we have build a long relationships.[4/26/2014 11:16:49 PM] Atsu: Regarding a correspondent at MIT, Jo Ito would be one of them to let us know what happens in there at MIT in terms of your topics for the Atlanta. From my side, I can introduce someone who had worked for the MIT-Arab Business Plan Competition (please see: http://www.mitarabcompetition.com). This event has been held by MIT and Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation and support a wide range of start-up social enterprises across MENA regions and beyond. They are also closed to the Poverty Action Labs, established at many of internationally renowned universities. So, hopefully, this would be helpful for your side; otherwise, we have several connectors in here to bridge between Jo Ito and us.
Best News of 2013 from our diaries of YunusAfrica.com: June 2013: African Development Bank and Yunus : the AfDB along with Prof Yunus's organisation, Yunus Social Business, have launched the Holistic Social Business Movement in Africa (HSBM) programme which includes pilot projects in Tunisia and Uganda. This programme will be implemented in two phases that include awareness raising and capacity building programmes for the stakeholders in Social Business, and with the implementation of social business incubation funds. In both these countries an incubation company named as Yunus Social Business Tunisia (and Uganda) will be set up, and simultaneously a "Social Business Fund" will be established in each country. The HSBM is funded by the Japan government and co-financed by the AfDB. In the second round, social business initiatives will also be extended in Egypt, Tanzania, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Togo and Morocco.…
productive job creation and entrepreneurial revolution in The Economist in 1962
It is fitting that today's update also comes from The Economist
Japan's recovery Who needs leaders?
The aftermath of the March 11th disasters shows that Japan’s strengths lie outside Tokyo, in its regions
Jun 9th 2011 | MINAMISANRIKU AND TOKYO | from the print edition
THE earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident that struck Japan three months ago have revealed something important about the country: a seam of strength and composure in the bedrock of society that has surprised even the Japanese themselves. Not only has this resilience helped the hundreds of thousands suffering from the loss of families, homes and livelihoods to cope with their suffering, despite the self-absorbed dithering of their national politicians in Tokyo. By reminding Japan of the hidden depths of its local communities, especially compared with the shallowness of central government, it has also provided a sense of how Japan could emerge stronger from the crisis, ending years of economic drift.
One of the most heroic examples of community spirit was 24-year-old Miki Endo, who used the loudspeaker system in Minamisanriku, a fishing port close to the focus of the 9.0 earthquake, to urge residents to do what they could to escape the incoming tsunami. She drowned at her post. Television footage shows the rising sea approaching, with her haunting voice echoing over the waves. More than 1,000 of the town’s 18,000 residents died.
Quieter examples of selflessness also abound. One fisherman tells of the four days he spent clearing the wreckage of his village, with no knowledge of the whereabouts of his eldest son. When his son eventually appeared, walking down off the mountain after a long cross-country trek to reach his parents, the two wiped tears from their eyes but did not say a word to each other. The son did not wish to disturb his father’s toil.
The quality and commitment of local leaders have been a revelation, so refreshing compared with the bickering politicians in the national Diet (parliament). Talk to mayors in the disaster-stricken areas and you get a sense of Wild Western true grit. Jin Sato, mayor of Minamisanriku, is one. He survived the tsunami by clinging to a fence on the top of a building as water washed over his head for three minutes. Since then he has worked all hours, sleeping in a cot in his office.
Another is Katsunobu Sakurai, mayor of Minamisoma, who in the heat of the crisis went on NHK, the national broadcaster, to berate the country’s authorities for failing to come to the aid of his town, which faced rising radiation levels from the nearby Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear-power plant. After he posted an SOS video on YouTube, Time magazine made him one of its 100 most influential people of 2011. He has galvanised other mayors into speaking out more forcefully.
The more they do, the clearer it becomes that their communities are not just disaster-stricken; they are on the front-line of all of Japan’s most pressing problems, be they economic decline, ageing, debt, or depopulation. National leaders in Tokyo avoid tackling Japan’s huge fiscal problems, but municipal authorities have first-hand experience of the effects of shrinking budgets. Though some have recklessly inflated those problems through mismanagement, many others have become masters in the art of thrift.
In the past decade local governments have merged towns, reduced the number of schools and run welfare services on a shoestring. In the process the average size of municipalities in Japan has almost doubled from 36,000 people to 69,000.
Yet the small amount of revenue they raise compared with what they spend (local taxes provide about 40% of their income) means that they remain reliant on the central government which, deep in debt itself, has to spend about 60% of its money on local government. On top of this precarious situation, authorities in the disaster areas now face the vast challenge of rebuilding after a tragedy that left 24,000 people dead or unaccounted for, and 100,000 at least temporarily homeless. Even in the face of this horror, the sense of local pulling-together persists.
There are plenty who dwell on the downsides of this community spirit. Some executives (especially foreign ones) dismiss its effect on business as thinly disguised socialism; it puts the preservation of jobs above profit, and prevents companies going bust that would otherwise make room for new competitors. It can stifle innovation, because it discourages people from speaking out. And it sometimes edges towards xenophobia—though the only sign of this has been a few mutterings about “foreign looters” in disaster areas.
Above all, it remains deeply hierarchical; even in small groups people refrain from challenging their elders and superiors. Occasionally that deference is deserved: the elderly may play a valuable role in their communities. One statistic shows that 65% of those who drowned were over 60; anecdotally, it appears that a lot died with infant grandchildren in their arms. They were looking after them while the generation in between worked. That has shocked Tokyoites, who thought the extended family was long gone.
Over the past three months this strength in adversity in one of the country’s most under-reported regions has made people rethink their old conceptions about Japan’s geography. Tohoku, the region of northern Honshu where the disaster struck, is an unusual place and part of its resilience may be culturally specific. Its tight-knit, independent streak dates back centuries. More than 1,100 years ago, the last time a tsunami of such scale lashed its shores, its tribesmen were known by southerners as Emishi (insubordinate northerners). At that time, they had only recently been vanquished by the Yamato, which remains the dominant ethnic group.
But if Tohoku could prove so strong, perhaps other parts of the hinterland are equally so. The crisis revealed Japan’s blind spot about what goes on beyond the centre of power. For instance, Eisuke Sakakibara, a former finance mandarin once known as “Mr Yen” for his influence on currency markets, expressed astonishment at the number of parts suppliers in the disaster zone which could disrupt global supply chains. Some of those little-known firms, such as Renesas Electronics, whose tiny microcontrollers are vital for the car industry, are recovering fast—which will help the wheels of the global economy spin a bit more quickly. Yet among the Tokyo-centric elite, few knew how important these scattered firms were.
Because of such pockets of dynamism, the economic potential of Japan’s regions, from Hokkaido in the north to Kyushu in the south, is much larger than is often assumed. Areas that are viewed as ageing backwaters on fiscal life-support could justifiably claim to be economic entities in their own right—if they had more freedom to set their own policies and balance their books. Tohoku, for example, has a GDP the size of Argentina’s; Kyushu’s economy is the same as Norway’s (see map).
Yet until now they have remained peripheral to Tokyo, the engine room of the economy, and their fragile finances reflect that. A series of decentralising reforms since 1995 have failed to provide fiscal autonomy, nor has local government attracted a depth of talent to match its new responsibilities. There was a step forward last month when municipalities were given the chance to talk directly to the central government, without going through the usual prefectural channels. But the clamour is for more independence. Osaka and Nagoya, Japan’s second and third industrial hubs, are especially tired of playing second-fiddle to greater Tokyo; local leaders in both cities are trying to create bigger economic enclaves and new political parties.
The gap between capital and countryside—especially as seen from Tohoku—has grown starker in recent weeks, thanks to the antics within the government and the Diet. From the early days of the crisis it was not lost on many evacuees that few politicians had bothered to make the two-to-four hour journey by train from Tokyo to witness their plight first-hand. (By contrast, the 77-year-old Emperor Akihito and his wife Michiko have made frequent visits, bowing deeply before the victims.)
In Fukushima people have been infuriated by the apparently arbitrary way the government has set limits on the levels of radiation, which affect whether people are allowed to stay in their villages or not. Across the country there is dissatisfaction at the apparently arbitrary way the government has declared some foods safe from radiation, and others unsafe. And in the tsunami zone mayors say they badly need guidance, not just on how to rebuild their shattered towns, but also on how much money they will have to spend.
To many there was no starker demonstration of the out-of-touch arrogance of national politicians than on June 2nd when opponents of Naoto Kan, the prime minister, sought and failed to force him out of office, by way of a no-confidence motion in the lower house. In the disaster area mayors spoke out angrily at the way political gamesmanship was distracting from recovery efforts. “When someone is drowning, what’s important is not who rescues them, but how they are rescued,” complained Hideo Abe, mayor of Higashimatsushima, a damaged port.
Matters worsened when Mr Kan won a reprieve by promising to stand down, and then appeared hours later to backtrack on the timing. Three months after March 11th, his government has still not submitted a ¥10 trillion ($125 billion) emergency reconstruction budget, nor secured approval for funding mechanisms to pay for the annual budget. The opposition, which controls the upper house, is demanding that he goes as a condition for passing the finance requests, possibly as a prelude to forming a “grand coalition” with the ruling party.
Leaders who don’t lead
Amid such chaotic politics, some despair of their national leaders. “The brain is dead, but at least the rest of the body is functioning,” quips Yoichi Takamoto, a Kyushu-based entrepreneur and head of TMSUK, a robot manufacturer. But that does not necessarily mean that he or others despair for the country.
Seiichiro Yonekura, professor of innovation at Hitotsubashi University, notes that Japan has rarely had outstanding leaders during its modern history. Even in the post-war era only a few politicians had any charisma. Yet the country rebuilt Tokyo from the ashes of the second world war, and Hiroshima and Nagasaki from atomic destruction. Japan became the world’s second largest economy. If something of a similar magnitude is to be achieved again, good ideas are crucial. Then, like “ants in an anthill”, he predicts, Japanese society will get to work.
This sounds idealistic, but it would not be the first time a natural disaster has done more than shake the ground under Japan’s feet. An earthquake that levelled Tokyo (then called Edo) in 1855 loosely coincided with the beginning of the end of more than two centuries of feudal isolation; the Meiji imperial family was restored to power in 1868. Another in 1891 forced Japan to re-examine its Meiji-era love of all things Western; many of the European-style brick buildings it had used to replace its traditional wooden ones fell down. In 1923 the Great Kanto Earthquake helped set in motion a political crisis that ultimately led to militarism and the second world war.
Planning and money
Since the March disaster two overarching challenges have emerged that could, if tackled, have similarly far-reaching consequences (though without, one hopes, the belligerence). First, Japan has to come up with plans and finance for rebuilding the tsunami-wrecked towns so that they will not only suit the mostly elderly people who used to live there but will also be revitalised to attract the young.
Second, it needs to use the Fukushima disaster to rethink energy policy and decentralise decision-making in a way that could kick-start economic revival. Both issues profoundly challenge the tenets by which Japan has been ruled in recent decades. But if ever there were a moment for the country to break out of its centralised straitjacket, this is it.
Jun Iio, who heads the working group of the prime minister’s Reconstruction Design Council, says that some big bureaucratic hurdles have already been overcome which, he reckons, shows an unprecedented level of flexibility in the relevant ministries. One is planning. For the first time the Land Ministry and the Agricultural Ministry have agreed, as a result of the tsunami, to relax the rigid restrictions on the use of farm and urban land.
Mr Iio says this means that parts of the cities that were swept away by the floods can be reclassified as farmland. The plan is that the people who used to live there will be relocated by the government to apartments on higher ground. It is not yet clear how much they will be paid for their old houses. To help things along, the powerful Justice Ministry has agreed to be flexible on property rights.
But mayors such as Isoo Sasaki of Natori, a town whose port was washed away by the tsunami (he also lost his 140-year-old sake business), insist they should be able to tailor their rebuilding efforts to individual communities’ needs, rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all policy. He admits that during Japan’s bubble era in the 1980s, there were embarrassing local building initiatives that saddled towns with both debts and eyesores. But he believes municipalities have learned from their mistakes; indeed, a few pioneering planners have made great strides recently reviving their towns with old feudal-era ideas that encourage compact and sustainable living arrangements.
Then there is the question of money: the affected areas cannot possibly afford to rebuild themselves. And people are fearful that when the money is finally approved in parliament, it will come with strings tightly attached.
Yoshihiro Murai, governor of Miyagi, the most prosperous prefecture hit by the crisis, points out that this is a perennial problem. He says he has raised taxes twice, cut his staff and shed popular services to save money, yet the discretionary spending power of his office is still only 5-6% of the total budget. He believes one way to raise money would be to increase consumption tax, which people have said they would be prepared to tolerate in order to pay for the emergency. But the government, as yet, is only studying the issue. Perhaps one difference is that Mr Murai, who used to be a helicopter pilot in Miyagi and knows every inch of its coastline, appreciates much better than his central-government counterparts how badly the money is needed.
Nuclear or not
Responding to the nuclear disaster is even harder. Mr Kan had initially sought to stay in power until the Fukushima nuclear plant has stabilised its reactors and reached a state of “cold shutdown”. But the timetable for that may already have slipped into 2012, which is too distant for those trying to oust him.
Not only is Fukushima Dai-ichi’s owner, Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), struggling to keep the plant under control. It is also stretched by the demands for compensation from people whose livelihoods, at least for the time being, have been ruined by the disaster. The government has patched together a compensation scheme, but experts believe this may have been a sop to let the company’s book-keepers approve the end-of-year accounts. As fears of bankruptcy mount, TEPCO’s shares hit a new low on June 6th.
Tatsuo Hatta, an economist at Gakushuin University in Tokyo, believes TEPCO may have to sell off its power plants to international operators to remain solvent. That could set in motion what he and a few outspoken commentators consider a long overdue overhaul of the energy market in Japan, which could have an immense impact on national politics. He says that executives at TEPCO and the other oligopolistic electricity utilities have stifled argument about Japan’s nuclear-energy programme, both by pouring money into politics and by muffling the media through their huge advertising budgets.
Yet those anxious for change note approvingly that even on energy policy, power has now shifted slightly towards local and regional governments. Prefectural governors, including those who originally supported nuclear power, are having second thoughts. In some areas local authorities are expressing strong opposition to the restarting of nuclear reactors closed for maintenance; consequently, all but 19 of the nation’s 54 reactors are out of action.
Others, however, are weighing up costs and benefits, as they should. On June 5th a governor was re-elected in Aomori prefecture, on the northern tip of Honshu, who said he would keep its two nuclear-power plants provided an experts’ committee was set up that vouched for their safety. The prefecture is one of Japan’s poorest, which may be why it is prepared to strike a deal with the nuclear industry.
A future with wind
In a decentralised system different areas could take a different view of what forms of energy are best for them. Hokkaido, for example, could benefit from its proximity to Russia’s natural gas deposits off the eastern coast of Siberia. Okinawa in the south could benefit from solar power, because it has lots of sunshine. Wind could power the country’s mountainous areas. Places like Tokyo, with their vast needs, could use a variety of sources.
As for Tohoku, some believe that it should set the tone for a national energy policy that is increasingly self-reliant and efficient. Thus, its towns could be rebuilt to minimise electricity use and car traffic. The huge swathes of land destroyed by the tsunami or depopulated because of radiation could become wind, wave or solar farms. As for Fukushima itself, some wits say it could become a new home for the central government. Then again, perhaps it has already suffered enough.
e Swedes who gave the Nobel Prizes in economics kept getting into trouble. One year they would give it to Milton Frioedman, and be attacked for being too far to the right. so the next year they gave it to Larry Klein who was a communist; then to Fritz von Hayek, so they were attacked as being right wing again; then which everybody's forgotten they gave it to Kantovich a marxist economist actually in the Soviet Union in the days when Marxist economics in the soviet union was not being a howling success. And so in the next eyar, which was wither 1977 or 1978 they decided to give it to somebody connecetd with buisness schools, because they thought that would be a nice non-disturbance-causing part of the science
And they asked the 50 iniversities on that year's list to nominate somebody in this general line, which was fine except for the one univesrity which was in Japan. The Japanese didnt have business schools -icidentally why they are so successful at buisness - but this university had to nominate some foreigner who had written something about management or entrepreneurialism, and been printed in japanese, and prefeably been nice about Japan. So you can see where this is leading, into my room comes Ricard casement who always knew everything before it happened and says that a Japanese university of which I have never jheard of has nominated me for the Nobel. Now alas of the 4 million people then in the world there were only 2 who thought this was a sensible idea. One was me and the other was the vice chnacleeor of the quite unjponouncable Japanese University
Still I spent the next 3 months eagerly accepting invitations to lecture in Sweden and n the day due for announcement hung around the tape machine looking nonchalant with a transistor in my ear. And the first part of Ricard's report had clearly been right because they did give it to some non-economist, but van American called Apfelstrudel or something who had invented busienss schools or some such. So I though ah well, perhaps next year if I am very tactful. And then taht Wednesday The Economist note about the Nobel announcement came over my desk. Someone had written: the Nobel committee has always been pretty dumb but this year it doesnt realise the difference between economics and so-called management science is : point A kick in the groin; point B kick in the gron; point C kick in the groin and left uppercut. So I though oops they will think I wrote that with the surest vof grapes. So I rang up sarah, and said sarah about the Nobel Prize - and she said Yes, you must promise not to chnage a word of that. Its by the new economics correpondent. And he's by far the brighest chap we have ever had so even if you disagree with it you must promise not to chnage a word. You understand. So I said, as one always did, Yes sarah.
... Norman never heard from Nobel again though Sweden did ask him to customise his 1984 book on the net generation - which in 1993 became The New Vikings - the future Histiory vof Sweden 1995-2015 - evidently a microeconomics success story…
to raise with japanese embassy - eg could they start putting together a worldwide panel of people interested in this question- in usa it would be useful to find out whether japanese joi ito head of mit media lab would join in, and if he would join in would he be able to invite someone like kim currently head or dartmouth but potentially able to infuse world bank with economical ways of resolving hiv and TB
After 7 years of research, I happen to believe that 3 candidates for youth's world most collaborative organsiation are:
MIT (Massachussetts Institute of Tech)
The Partnership organisation of free tertiary education linked into s.africa's taddy blecher (including mandela branson kiva google ... )
whether or not these or another organisation becomes valued by The Economist and Japan as most collaborative, the question of can a high level panel be assembled seems to need answering now
ps one of the multi-win dynamics framed by this question is that it gravitates all economical collaborative organisations as you cant be most collaborative if you are denying connections with others that do outtstanding collaborations with peoples they have access to; as keynes would say the most terrifying men in the world are those trying to rule with theories they made up before the coming of a million times more collaboration technology- getting rid of such men is by definition the job of any real entrepreneur, and most definitely the job james wilson designed social action media around -if our japanese friends can contact chriss patten at bbc trust that would be huge as his contributions to future of asia are probably greater than any living londoner…
cade of coding lamguages and web on west coats usa, it was the decade of japan first 10 year AI plan)
major sub-investors of maso son
are alibaba's jack ma- who is returning to teaching sept 2019- his first new yea climaxes at Japanese olympics which Alibaba is sponsoring
jerry yang- based in silicon valley yang founded yahoo about the same time bezos founded ecommerce - also the first tiome jack ma had travelled outside usa- by 2001 Yang who is taiwan american had discovered jack ma and worked out how yahoo japan jack ma and maso son could help each other and design asian ecommerce round value chains that celebrate village and small enterprises
arm the uk based chip designer who some say design the best chips for 5g mobile
many emerging supercity shared economy models eg wework - in each country identify whether wework or another innovation space is building avenues of ai entrepreneurs close to every major university town
other new economy models eg uber collect huge real time data platforms - connecting these for citizens and across a regions infrasgtrucuire is critical to developing 5G round peoples
the main billionaire investing in new college empowering graduates to humanise ai is schwarzma- his 3 big partnerships MIT, Tsingua, Oxford- his Tsingua partnership is inviting worldwide graduates to share views of global affairs with beijing's youth ambassadors- Maso son is a lead sponsor of schwarzman tsinghua as is Hong's Richest man Ka-Shing. Ka-Shing also has hos own college network CKGSB training leaders out of beijing and new york and closely linked with t\he kissinger inspired committee100 - originally these top 100 china american friendship eleaders celebrated such artotic genii as yo yp ma cellist (see silkroad.org) and the lat great IM Pei (archoect who designed paris ,louvere pyrmaind)
Ex google ceo eric schmidht said june 2019 its now clear the best bilaonaire philanthropy founds coleges targeting the netwirking of 2020s students kif huanising ai
www.aisingapore.org is building curricula of AI from 3rd grade up- part of a curriculum is getting etachers and studnets to program their own ai training assistant - why should amazon have all the fun with alexa
ex google ai head kai fu lee has written the simplest book on who started what with ai in 2010s - he's moved back from silicon valley to the 5 square miles of student hubs round tsinghua - the test bed for every chinese city's abenue of ai engtre[reneurs
AI is only as human as the databank it has access to - women empowerments greatest data links in round fazle abed in bangladesh- nilekani's billion person india identity might yet turn lout to be
india's crown jewel in AI
japan and china has excellently curious AI www.journalistsforhumanity.com
JOIN SEARCH FOR UNDER 30s MOST MASSIVE COLLABS FOR HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY - 3/21/22 HAPPY 50th Birthday TO WORLD'S MOST SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY- ASIAN WOMEN SUPERVILLAGE
Since gaining my MA statistics Cambridge DAMTP 1973 (Corpus Christi College) my special sibject has been community building networks- these are the 6 most exciting collaboration opportunities my life has been privileged to map - the first two evolved as grassroots person to person networks before 1996 in tropical Asian places where village women had no access to electricity grids nor phones- then came mobile and solar entrepreneurial revolutions!!
COLLAB platforms of livesmatter communities to mediate public and private -poorest village mothers empowering end of poverty 126.96.36.199.45.55.6
… Even if Japan scales up efforts in military defense after such clarification, Japan's defense
spending isestimatedto remain within 2 per cent of its GNP. Serious consideration should be
given to the fact that realization of new defense policies and military buildup in Japan is
. we scots are less than 4/1000 of the worlds and 3/4 are Diaspora - immigrants in others countries. Since 2008 I have been celebrating Bangladesh Women Empowerment solutions wth NY graduates. Now I want to host love each others events in new york starting this week with hong kong-contact me if we can celebrate anoither countries winm-wins with new yorkers
mapping OTHER ECONOMIES:
50 SMALLEST ISLAND NATIONS
TWO Macroeconomies FROM SIXTH OF PEOPLE WHO ARE WHITE & war-prone
From 60%+ people =Asian Supercity (60TH YEAR OF ECONOMIST REPORTING - SEE CONSIDER JAPAN1962)
Far South - eg African, Latin Am, Australasia
Earth's other economies : Arctic, Antarctic, Dessert, Rainforest
In addition to how the 5 primary sdgs1-5 are gravitated we see 6 transformation factors as most critical to sustainability of 2020-2025-2030
Xfactors to 2030 Xclimate XAI Xinfra Xyouth Wwomen Xpoor email@example.com (scot currently in washington DC)- in 1984 i co-authored 2025 report with dad norman.
from 1960s when 100 times more tech per decade was due to compound industrial revolutions 3,4
1945 birth of UN
1843 when the economist was founded
1760s - adam smithian 2 views : last of pre-engineering era; first 16 years of engineering ra including america's declaration of independence- in essence this meant that to 1914 continental scaling of engineeriing would be separate new world <.old world
IF we 8 billion earthlings of the 2020s are to celebrate collaboration escapes from extinction, the knowhow of the billion asian poorest women networks will be invaluable -
in mathematically connected ways so will the stories of diaspora scots and the greatest mathematicians ever home schooled -central european jewish teens who emigrated eg Neumann , Einstein ... to USA 2nd quarter of the 20th century; it is on such diversity that entrepreneurial revolution diaries have been shaped
EconomistPOOR.com : Dad was born in the USSR in 1923 - his dad served in British Embassies. Dad's curiosity enjoyed the opposite of a standard examined education. From 11+ Norman observed results of domination of humans by mad white men - Stalin from being in British Embassy in Moscow to 1936; Hitler in Embassy of last Adriatic port used by Jews to escape Hitler. Then dad spent his last days as a teen in allied bomber command navigating airplanes stationed at modernday Myanmar. Surviving thanks to the Americas dad was in Keynes last class where he was taught that only a handful of system designers control what futures are possible. EconomistScotland.comAbedMooc.com
To help mediate such, question every world eventwith optimistic rationalism, my father's 2000 articles at The Economist interpret all sorts of future spins. After his 15th year he was permitted one signed survey a year. In the mid 1950s he had met John Von Neumann whom he become biographer to , and was the only journalist at Messina's's birth of EU. == If you only have time for one download this one page tour of COLLABorations composed by Fazle Abed and networked by billion poorest village women offers clues to sustainability from the ground up like no white ruler has ever felt or morally audited. by London Scot James Wilson. Could Queen Victoria change empire fro slavemaking to commonwealth? Some say Victoria liked the challenge James set her, others that she gave him a poison pill assignment. Thus James arrived in Calcutta 1860 with the Queens permission to charter a bank by and for Indian people. Within 9 months he died of diarrhea. 75 years later Calcutta was where the Young Fazle Abed grew up - his family accounted for some of the biggest traders. Only to be partitioned back at age 11 to his family's home region in the far north east of what had been British Raj India but was now to be ruled by Pakistan for 25 years. Age 18 Abed made the trek to Glasgow University to study naval engineering.
1943 marked centenary autobio of The Economist and my teenage dad Norman prepping to be navigator allied bomber command Burma Campaign -thanks to US dad survived, finished in last class of Keynes. before starting 5 decades at The Economist; after 15 years he was allowed to sign one survey a year starting in 1962 with the scoop that Japan (Korea S, Taiwan soon hk singapore) had found development mp0de;s for all Asian to rise. Rural Keynes could end village poverty & starvation; supercity win-win trades could celebrate Neumanns gift of 100 times more tech per decade (see macrae bio of von neumann)
Since 1960 the legacy of von neumann means ever decade multiplies 100 times more micro-technology- an unprecedented time for better or worse of all earthdwellers; 2025 timelined and mapped innovation exponentials - education, health, go green etc - (opportunities threats) to celebrating sustainability generation by 2025; dad parted from earth 2010; since then 2 journals by adam smith scholars out of Glasgow where engines began in 1760-Social Business;New Economicshave invited academic worlds and young graduates to question where the human race is going - after 30 business trips to wealthier parts of Asia, through 2010s I have mainly sherpa's young journalist to Bangladesh - we are filing 50 years of cases on women empowerment at these web sitesAbedMOOC.comFazleAbed.comEconomistPoor.comEconomistUN.comWorldRecordjobs.comEconomistwomen.comEconomistyouth.comEconomistDiary.comUNsummitfuture.com- in my view how a billion asian women linked together to end extreme poverty across continental asia is the greatest and happiest miracle anyone can take notes on - please note the rest of this column does not reflect my current maps of how or where the younger half of the world need to linkin to be the first sdg generation......its more like an old scrap book
how do humans design futures?-in the 2020s decade of the sdgs – this question has never had more urgency. to be or not to be/ – ref to lessons of deming or keynes, or glasgow university alumni smith and 200 years of hi-trust economics mapmaking later fazle abed - we now know how-a man made system is defined by one goal uniting generations- a system multiplies connected peoples work and demands either accelerating progress to its goal or collapsing - sir fazle abed died dec 2020 - so who are his most active scholars climate adaptability where cop26 november will be a great chance to renuite with 260 years of adam smith and james watts purposes t end poverty-specifically we interpret sdg 1 as meaning next girl or boy born has fair chance at free happy an productive life as we seek to make any community a child is born into a thriving space to grow up between discover of new worlds in 1500 and 1945 systems got worse and worse on the goal eg processes like slavery emerged- and ultimately the world was designed around a handful of big empires and often only the most powerful men in those empires. 4 amazing human-tech systems were invented to start massive use by 1960 borlaug agriculture and related solutions every poorest village (2/3people still had no access to electricity) could action learn person to person- deming engineering whose goal was zero defects by helping workers humanize machines- this could even allowed thousands of small suppliers to be best at one part in machines assembled from all those parts) – although americans invented these solution asia most needed them and joyfully became world class at them- up to 2 billion people were helped to end poverty through sharing this knowhow- unlike consuming up things actionable knowhow multiplies value in use when it links through every community that needs it the other two technologies space and media and satellite telecoms, and digital analytic power looked promising- by 1965 alumni of moore promised to multiply 100 fold efficiency of these core tech each decade to 2030- that would be a trillion tmes moore than was needed to land on the moon in 1960s. you might think this tech could improve race to end poverty- and initially it did but by 1990 it was designed around the long term goal of making 10 men richer than 40% poorest- these men also got involved in complex vested interests so that the vast majority of politicians in brussels and dc backed the big get bigger - often they used fake media to hide what they were doing to climate and other stuff that a world trebling in population size d\ - we the 3 generations children parents grandparents have until 2030 to design new system orbits gravitated around goal 1 and navigating the un's other 17 goals do you want to help/ 8 cities we spend most time helping students exchange sustainability solutions 2018-2019 BR0BeijingHangzhou: