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Discuss Maddening Economists Ratings Centres

AKA Beyond the albratoss of EURO - Privatise before EU macroeconomists devalue youth's future completely

 

The way ratings agencies misvalued subprime is both well known and badly known. Most people have heard they were bought up the same wall street speculators that caused the 2008 bubble (born in america to dilute integrity of banking (peoples savings) in over 50 countries) but the 20 detailed errors gthey made are not well known

 

what is maddening in 2011 is to let the same rateing agencies cause a crisis in which european countrues need reinvestment; the mastricht criteria do not represnt any proven model of sustainbility of a country howver convenmient it is to rate with them; and all the noise of macroeconomists advising politicians boils down to schemes designed to disinvesti in a place's youth -whenever a bank or nation is balied out by non-local people, its the youth, families and sustainability of local communities who will have to payback.

 

how does one viralise debate of the damage rating agencies are doing until their power to mess with the world is prevented?

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http://www.economist.com/node/18958397?Story_ID=18958397&fsrc=n...

FOR more than a year the euro zone’s debt drama has lurched from one nail-biting scene to another. First Greece took centre stage; then Ireland; then Portugal; then Greece again. Each time European policymakers reacted similarly: with denial and dithering, followed at the eleventh hour with a half-baked rescue plan to buy time.

This week the shortcomings of this muddling-through were laid bare (see article). Financial markets turned on Italy, the euro zone’s third-biggest economy, with alarming speed. Yields on ten-year Italian bonds jumped by almost a percentage point in two trading days: on July 12th they breached 6%, their highest since the euro was created. The Milan stockmarket slumped to its lowest in two years. Though bond yields subsequently fell back, the debt crisis has clearly entered a new phase. No longer confined to the small peripheral economies of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, it has hurdled over Spain, supposedly next in line, and reached one of the euro zone’s giants. All its members, but especially Germany, face a stark choice.

Consider the stakes. Italy has the biggest sovereign-debt market in Europe and the third-biggest in the world. It has €1.9 trillion ($2.6 trillion) of sovereign debt outstanding, 120% of its GDP, three times as much as Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined—and far more than the €250 billion or so left in the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the currency club’s rescue kitty. Default would have calamitous consequences for the euro and the world economy. Even if the more likely immediate prospect is sustained stress in the Italian bond market, that will surely prompt investors to flee European assets, making the continent’s recovery ever harder. Meanwhile in the background there is the absurd pantomime of Barack Obama and congressional Republicans feuding over how to raise the federal government’s debt ceiling to stave off an American “default” (see article). That may have distracted American investors briefly; once they realise how much is at stake in Italy, it will not help.

From Rome to Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin

The proximate cause of this week’s scare lies in Italian politics, and a row in which Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister, hurled playground insults at Giulio Tremonti, the finance minister, over a new austerity budget. Add in the underlying concerns about the Italian economy’s feeble growth rate, and investors are understandably worried about the Italian government’s ability to shoulder its huge debt.

In theory, these concerns should be easy for a grown-up government to address. After all, Italy, for all its faults, is not a big Greece. Its debt burden has been high but stable for years. Its primary budget (ie, before interest payments) is in surplus. It has a record of cutting spending and raising taxes if it needs to do so: in 1997, when it was trying to get into the euro, its primary surplus was 6% of GDP. By European standards its banks are decently capitalised. High private saving means that much sovereign borrowing is funded at home.

In practice, though, there is seldom a clear line between illiquidity and insolvency: if the price Italy must pay to borrow rises high enough for long enough, its debt will eventually spiral out of control. And Italy’s prospects are being overwhelmed by the contradictions and uncertainties in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin, where respectively the Eurocrats, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, have all vainly tried to follow two contradictory goals—namely, avoiding any formal default on Greek debt, while also avoiding an open-ended transfer from richer European countries to the insolvent periphery (see article).

To be fair to Mrs Merkel and Europe’s other leaders, they have not chosen to muddle through merely out of cowardice, though there has been plenty of that, but because the euro-zone countries are profoundly divided. They cannot agree on who should bear the cost of today’s crisis: should it be creditors (through a write-down), debtors (through austerity) or the Germans (through transfers to the south)? And they have not decided whether the long-term answer is a fiscal union, or not. Investors are thus unclear about how badly they may be hit. With Europeans in such a muddle over little Greece, no wonder investors are so terrified by big Italy.

Cometh the hour, cometh the Eurobond

What is to be done? This newspaper has long argued that muddling-through must be replaced by a comprehensive strategy based on three components: debt reduction for plainly insolvent countries; a recapitalisation of the European banks that will suffer from that restructuring; and the building of a firewall between the insolvent and the rest.

Debt reduction must begin with Greece, the country that is most obviously bust. However the restructuring is pitched, Greece will be in default, so a plan to recapitalise banks hit badly by this, starting with Greece’s own, will be needed too. The results of stress tests, due on July 15th, should show how much more help is required. There may have to be a similar restructuring for Portugal and Ireland.

 Explore our interactive guide to Europe's troubled economies

The task of building a firewall around the solvent core, including Spain and Italy, has to be shared between the countries at risk and the euro zone as a whole. Italy needs to pass its budget speedily—and also push through long overdue structural reforms. Its challenges are not only, or even mainly, about fiscal austerity, but about making the economy grow. As for the euro zone, short-term help may have to come from the ECB buying Italian bonds (difficult politically because the next head of the ECB will be Mario Draghi, the boss of Italy’s central bank). Soon though the euro zone may well have to expand the EFSF and allow it to issue jointly guaranteed “Eurobonds”.

That is a huge political leap—especially for Mrs Merkel. Germany is firmly opposed to any solution that could imply open-ended transfers to feckless southerners; so are several other northern European countries, not least because guaranteeing others may raise their own borrowing costs. It is not a pleasant option. But the alternative could be the end of the euro. That is the horrible lesson of this week.

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ENTREPRENEURIAL REVOLUTION NETWORK BENCHMARKS 2025now : Remembering Norman Macrae

unaiwho.docx version 6/6/22 hunt for 100 helping guterres most with UN2.0

EconomistDiary.com Friends20.com & EntrepreneurialRevolution.city select 2022's greatest moments for citizens/youth of NY & HK & Utellus

Prep for UN Sept 22 summit education no longer fit for human beings/sustainability

JOIN SEARCH FOR UNDER 30s MOST MASSIVE COLLABS FOR HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY - 3/21/22 HAPPY 50th Birthday TO WORLD'S MOST SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY- ASIAN WOMEN SUPERVILLAGE

Since gaining my MA statistics Cambridge DAMTP 1973 (Corpus Christi College) my special sibject has been community building networks- these are the 6 most exciting collaboration opportunities my life has been privileged to map - the first two evolved as grassroots person to person networks before 1996 in tropical Asian places where village women had no access to electricity grids nor phones- then came mobile and solar entrepreneurial revolutions!! 

COLLAB platforms of livesmatter communities to mediate public and private -poorest village mothers empowering end of poverty    5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5  5.6


4 livelihood edu for all 

4.1  4.2  4.3  4.4  4.5 4.6


3 last mile health services  3.1 3,2  3.3  3.4   3.5   3.6


last mile nutrition  2.1   2.2   2.3   2.4  2.5  2,6


banking for all workers  1.1  1.2  1.3   1.4   1.5   1.6


NEWS FROM LIBRARY NORMAN MACRAE -latest publication 2021 translation into japanese biography of von neumann:

Below: neat German catalogue (about half of dad's signed works) but expensive  -interesting to see how Germans selected the parts  they like over time: eg omitted 1962 Consider Japan The Economist 

feel free to ask if free versions are available 

The coming entrepreneurial revolution : a survey Macrae, Norman - In: The economist 261 (1976), pp. 41-65 cited 105 

Macrae, Norman - In: IPA review / Institute of PublicAffairs 25 (1971) 3, pp. 67-72  
 Macrae, Norman - The Economist 257 (1975), pp. 1-44 
6 The future of international business Macrae, Norman - In: Transnational corporations and world order : readings …, (pp. 373-385). 1979 >
Future U.S. growth and leadership assessed from abroad Macrae, Norman - In: Prospects for growth : changing expectations for the future, (pp. 127-140). 1977 Check Google Scholar | 
9Entrepreneurial Revolution - next capitalism: in hi-tech left=right=center; The Economist 1976
Macrae, Norman -In: European community (1978), pp. 3-6
  Macrae, Norman - In: Kapitalismus heute, (pp. 191-204). 1974
23a 

. we scots are less than 4/1000 of the worlds and 3/4 are Diaspora - immigrants in others countries. Since 2008 I have been celebrating Bangladesh Women Empowerment solutions wth NY graduates. Now I want to host love each others events in new york starting this week with hong kong-contact me if we can celebrate anoither countries winm-wins with new yorkers

mapping OTHER ECONOMIES:

50 SMALLEST ISLAND NATIONS

TWO Macroeconomies FROM SIXTH OF PEOPLE WHO ARE WHITE & war-prone

ADemocratic

Russian

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From 60%+ people =Asian Supercity (60TH YEAR OF ECONOMIST REPORTING - SEE CONSIDER JAPAN1962)

Far South - eg African, Latin Am, Australasia

Earth's other economies : Arctic, Antarctic, Dessert, Rainforest

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In addition to how the 5 primary sdgs1-5 are gravitated we see 6 transformation factors as most critical to sustainability of 2020-2025-2030

Xfactors to 2030 Xclimate XAI Xinfra Xyouth Wwomen Xpoor chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk (scot currently  in washington DC)- in 1984 i co-authored 2025 report with dad norman.

Asia Rising Surveys

Entrepreneurial Revolution -would endgame of one 40-year generations of applying Industrial Revolution 3,4 lead to sustainability of extinction

1972's Next 40 Years ;1976's Coming Entrepreneurial Revolution; 12 week leaders debate 1982's We're All Intrapreneurial Now

The Economist had been founded   in 1843" marking one of 6 exponential timeframes "Future Histores"

IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADAMSMITH.app :

we offer worldwide mapping view points from

1 2 now to 2025-30

and these viewpoints:

40 years ago -early 1980s when we first framed 2025 report;

from 1960s when 100 times more tech per decade was due to compound industrial revolutions 3,4 

1945 birth of UN

1843 when the economist was founded

1760s - adam smithian 2 views : last of pre-engineering era; first 16 years of engineering ra including america's declaration of independence- in essence this meant that to 1914 continental scaling of engineeriing would be separate new world <.old world

conomistwomen.com

IF we 8 billion earthlings of the 2020s are to celebrate collaboration escapes from extinction, the knowhow of the billion asian poorest women networks will be invaluable -

in mathematically connected ways so will the stories of diaspora scots and the greatest mathematicians ever home schooled -central european jewish teens who emigrated eg Neumann , Einstein ... to USA 2nd quarter of the 20th century; it is on such diversity that entrepreneurial revolution diaries have been shaped 

EconomistPOOR.com : Dad was born in the USSR in 1923 - his dad served in British Embassies. Dad's curiosity enjoyed the opposite of a standard examined education. From 11+ Norman observed results of domination of humans by mad white men - Stalin from being in British Embassy in Moscow to 1936; Hitler in Embassy of last Adriatic port used by Jews to escape Hitler. Then dad spent his last days as a teen in allied bomber command navigating airplanes stationed at modernday Myanmar. Surviving thanks to the Americas dad was in Keynes last class where he was taught that only a handful of system designers control what futures are possible. EconomistScotland.com AbedMooc.com

To help mediate such, question every world eventwith optimistic rationalism, my father's 2000 articles at The Economist interpret all sorts of future spins. After his 15th year he was permitted one signed survey a year. In the mid 1950s he had met John Von Neumann whom he become biographer to , and was the only journalist at Messina's's birth of EU. == If you only have time for one download this one page tour of COLLABorations composed by Fazle Abed and networked by billion poorest village women offers clues to sustainability from the ground up like no white ruler has ever felt or morally audited. by London Scot James Wilson. Could Queen Victoria change empire fro slavemaking to commonwealth? Some say Victoria liked the challenge James set her, others that she gave him a poison pill assignment. Thus James arrived in Calcutta 1860 with the Queens permission to charter a bank by and for Indian people. Within 9 months he died of diarrhea. 75 years later Calcutta was where the Young Fazle Abed grew up - his family accounted for some of the biggest traders. Only to be partitioned back at age 11 to his family's home region in the far north east of what had been British Raj India but was now to be ruled by Pakistan for 25 years. Age 18 Abed made the trek to Glasgow University to study naval engineering.

new york

1943 marked centenary autobio of The Economist and my teenage dad Norman prepping to be navigator allied bomber command Burma Campaign -thanks to US dad survived, finished in last class of Keynes. before starting 5 decades at The Economist; after 15 years he was allowed to sign one survey a year starting in 1962 with the scoop that Japan (Korea S, Taiwan soon hk singapore) had found development mp0de;s for all Asian to rise. Rural Keynes could end village poverty & starvation; supercity win-win trades could celebrate Neumanns gift of 100 times more tech per decade (see macrae bio of von neumann)

Since 1960 the legacy of von neumann means ever decade multiplies 100 times more micro-technology- an unprecedented time for better or worse of all earthdwellers; 2025 timelined and mapped innovation exponentials - education, health, go green etc - (opportunities threats) to celebrating sustainability generation by 2025; dad parted from earth 2010; since then 2 journals by adam smith scholars out of Glasgow where engines began in 1760- Social Business; New Economics have invited academic worlds and young graduates to question where the human race is going - after 30 business trips to wealthier parts of Asia, through 2010s I have mainly sherpa's young journalist to Bangladesh - we are filing 50 years of cases on women empowerment at these web sites AbedMOOC.com FazleAbed.com EconomistPoor.com EconomistUN.com WorldRecordjobs.com Economistwomen.com Economistyouth.com EconomistDiary.com UNsummitfuture.com - in my view how a billion asian women linked together to end extreme poverty across continental asia is the greatest and happiest miracle anyone can take notes on - please note the rest of this column does not reflect my current maps of how or where the younger half of the world need to linkin to be the first sdg generation......its more like an old scrap book

 how do humans design futures?-in the 2020s decade of the sdgs – this question has never had more urgency. to be or not to be/ – ref to lessons of deming or keynes, or glasgow university alumni smith and 200 years of hi-trust economics mapmaking later fazle abed - we now know how-a man made system is defined by one goal uniting generations- a system multiplies connected peoples work and demands either accelerating progress to its goal or collapsing - sir fazle abed died dec 2020 - so who are his most active scholars climate adaptability where cop26 november will be a great chance to renuite with 260 years of adam smith and james watts purposes t end poverty-specifically we interpret sdg 1 as meaning next girl or boy born has fair chance at free happy an productive life as we seek to make any community a child is born into a thriving space to grow up between discover of new worlds in 1500 and 1945 systems got worse and worse on the goal eg processes like slavery emerged- and ultimately the world was designed around a handful of big empires and often only the most powerful men in those empires. 4 amazing human-tech systems were invented to start massive use by 1960 borlaug agriculture and related solutions every poorest village (2/3people still had no access to electricity) could action learn person to person- deming engineering whose goal was zero defects by helping workers humanize machines- this could even allowed thousands of small suppliers to be best at one part in machines assembled from all those parts) – although americans invented these solution asia most needed them and joyfully became world class at them- up to 2 billion people were helped to end poverty through sharing this knowhow- unlike consuming up things actionable knowhow multiplies value in use when it links through every community that needs it the other two technologies space and media and satellite telecoms, and digital analytic power looked promising- by 1965 alumni of moore promised to multiply 100 fold efficiency of these core tech each decade to 2030- that would be a trillion tmes moore than was needed to land on the moon in 1960s. you might think this tech could improve race to end poverty- and initially it did but by 1990 it was designed around the long term goal of making 10 men richer than 40% poorest- these men also got involved in complex vested interests so that the vast majority of politicians in brussels and dc backed the big get bigger - often they used fake media to hide what they were doing to climate and other stuff that a world trebling in population size d\ - we the 3 generations children parents grandparents have until 2030 to design new system orbits gravitated around goal 1 and navigating the un's other 17 goals do you want to help/ 8 cities we spend most time helping students exchange sustainability solutions 2018-2019 BR0 Beijing Hangzhou: 

Girls world maps begin at B01 good news reporting with fazleabed.com  valuetrue.com and womenuni.com

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online library of norman macrae--

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MA1 AliBaba TaoBao

Ma 2 Ali Financial

Ma10.1 DT and ODPS

health catalogue; energy catalogue

Keynes: 2025now - jobs Creating Gen

.

how poorest women in world build

A01 BRAC health system,

A02 BRAC education system,

A03 BRAC banking system

K01 Twin Health System - Haiti& Boston

Past events EconomistDiary.com

include 15th annual spring collaboration cafe new york - 2022 was withsister city hong kong designers of metaverse for beeings.app

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