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Search Results - entrepreneurial revolution

Topic: 2010's most important debate?
every locality and culture? rsvp chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk web will link how many of youth's 10000 greatest job creators? chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk NMFound.net RESOURCES of The Economist's Unacknowledged Giant Archives 1984 First Future History of Web 1972 First Future History of would globalisation of financial markets collapse in 2010s 1962 Consider Future of Japan and Coming Asian Pacific Collaboration Century 2008 Consider Bangladesh as most important development economics  paradigm of net generation's collaboration race to poverty museums- norman's last article republished as leaflet for The Economist Boardroom remembrance party of Norman Macrae 2010 Norman Macrae Fan web mainly as designed in 1996 2013 Happy 170th year of The Economist and first globall anniversary of the Coming of the MOOC and the www  joyful revolution of Job Creating Education Journal of Pro-Youth Economics edited out of Scotland by Adam Smith scholars, worldwide youth entrepreneurs, and friends of the families: Macrae & Yunus .. & daughters 5 education eg discuss MOOCs and virtually free education 4 banking eg discuss cashless banking 3 health services eg discuss 21st c nurse as every village's MVP of info networking 2 agriculture and waste eg discuss eAGRI 1 other eg can we use media to become smarter, more peaceful, communally active, happier with what becomes more abundant in use (eg knowhow) than what becomes scarce (eg consuming up thingsa)? ... 5 what constructs make education more and more affordable, and better quality for each human's flow? MOOCs peer to peer edu free university how valuing core purpose of education as job creation (or generating fully produtive lifetime of every being) depends on everyone including the richest or most powerful believing that peoples and places only sustain progress if they-and-we-the people design education and savings around increasing next generation's productivity and sustainability 4 questions - how do you -and the societies you live in most-  vision the most economical form of cashless banking applied to the basic service of enabling individual people to buy and sell by keeping people's money safe and accessible? what is a brief history of when different types of advances in computing and communications technology could have reduced costs of basic personal banking by an order of magnitude? 3 discuss whether we will ever get back to a world of working to make healthcare more affordable for everyone to access - and whether this opportunity depends on supporting the job of 21st c nursing to be ever village's most trusted vital informal connector and well as lead-doer of basic health knowhow   2 discuss whether this generation will be just in time to get back to nutrition and food security for all: map  how man-made carbon waste is alien to nature whose organic system design revolves round sustaiinability of one living organism's waste being another's energy input; do the people who make place's biggest decision truly involve all of us in understanding that we are the first generation to know about climate chane and the ;last one to be able to do anything about it  1 discuss how to value abundance before scarcity .. is it possible to get back to a world  of win--win-win system designs where every professional metrics or lawmaker takes a hippocratic oath to openly help innovate abundance before privately leveraging scarcity? Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to Facebook    …
Added by chris macrae at 5:02am on December 26, 2012
Topic: ER Curriculum: 1984 Timelines for Net Generation of 2010s to be most productive and collaborative time
(especially computer programming work) much earlier, maybe starting at nine, maybe at twelve, and we do not exploit them. But young adults of twenty-three to forty-five stay at home to play much more than in 1974; it is quite usual today for one parent (probably now generally the father, although sometimes the mother) to stay at home during the period when young children are growing up. And today adults of forty-three to ninety-three go back to school - via computerised learning - much more than they did in 1974. In most of the rich countries in 2024 children are not allowed to leave school until they pass their Preliminary Exam. About 5 per cent of American children passed their exam last year before their eight birthday, but the median age for passing it in 2024 is ten-and-a-half, and remedial education is generally needed if a child has not passed it by the age of fifteen. A child who passes his Prelim can decide Norman Macrae June 23 2010, 1:01am, The Times BAT is not FAG : follow the Ma (gateway17, damo communities for all expo tokyo 2020): jack has spent since 1994 searching for where big-small change will come to chich markets - so fast moving consumer goods chnaged by ecommerce; finance and social sharing markets eg bikes by mobile apps-clouds; furniture by OTO;  jobs education and happiness sectors by 1 refugee and bodrer crossings, 2 expereintial learning olympics and the games of education of youth as sustainability goals generation on every belt road map Macrae: he was an elegant writer of original ideas who delighted in paradoxes  ? - Jun 11, 2010  (d.) Bio/Description A British economist, journalist and author, considered by some to have been one of the world's best forecasters when it came to economics and society. These forecasts mapped back to system designs mediated so that readers and entrepreneurial networks could exponentially calibrate shared alternative scenarios. He joined The Economist in 1949 and retired as its deputy chief editor in 1988. He foresaw the Pacific century, the reversal of nationalization of enterprises, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the spread of the internet, which were all published in the newspaper during his time there. Not to get bored, his first ten years in retirement produced the biography of Johnny Von Neumann (the mathematical father of computers and networks), a column for the UK Sunday Times, and a 'Heresy Column' for Fortune. He was the father of mathematician, marketing commentator, and author Chris Macrae. Their joint future history on death of distance in 1984 forecast that 2005-2015 would be humanity's most critical decade irreversibly impacting sustainability. In 1984, he wrote "The 2024 Report: a future history of the next 40 years". It was the first book to: provide readers with a brainstorming journey of what people in an internetworking world might do, and predict that a new economy would emerge with revolutionary new productivity and social benefits enjoyed by all who interacted in a net-connected world. In this book, he wrote: "Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be miniaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984."  Y  chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk :: rowp.tv  :: linkedin UNwomens :: WASHINTGON DC TEXT HOTLIENE (USA=1) 240 316 8157 2025 report authors' prologue chapter 6 fintech for the unbanked, media true to goal of end poverty chapter 7 changing manufacturing employment chapter 8 changing education chapter 9 digital infrastructure revolution chapter 10 -changing politicians 2014 Update: Trillion Dollar Audit System Failures Not Yet Resolved: Peace and Cross-Cultural Understanding - Challenge Remains Man's Biggest Risk Failure of eg Public Media to Realise its 30000 Microfranchise Purpose - Join youth in making Jobs Summits Movement more exciting than Sporting Olympics Of the 20 Anti-Youth monopolies still blocking the Net Generation, we aim to spend next 2 years focusing particularly on unblocking education's 4 anti-youth monoploies of : what's taught, who teaches, what's examined and what's certified Fortunately 2014's Open Education Who's Who offers extraordinary oportunities:   We (elders and youth of the net generation) could now be valuing a wholly different planet  if top 11 who's Free Education who knew how to collaborate with each other :KHANac BRACAbed, CEUSoros ,SABlecher MITtbl NOBATYunus LUCKNOWGandhi ChinaMa NZDryden MEDIALABNegropronte COURSEraKoller .... since …
Added by chris macrae at 3:35pm on February 12, 2014
Topic: 2025report - 5 4 3 2 1 last 5 year countdown sustainability exp first published 1984
ations alive 1984-2025 could sustain humanity- we understood  probability of orwell's  opposite end game was possible but then as per chapters freely downloadable below or now we argued for (and exponentially deadlined) applying tech to change education and change to 10 other systems eg way men treat women, or how empires that colonised the world freed entrepreneurs everywhere, or how we all value nature, last mile health services... FALL 2021 our latest timelines support UN Gutrerres 2023 summitfuture.com- and the most collaborative one page guide to sustainability due to a billion womens life work is  download one page guide to 36 COLLABs with youth as sustainable generation chapter contents chapters 1 to 5 discussed what peaceful nations needed to do to help all peoples be more productive as berlin wall fell- sadly the west did not values livesmatter enough- if you want to re-read every opportunity lost ask chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk to send you chapters 2 to 5 or discuss at www.economisteurope.com chapter 6 fintech to end poverty chapter 7 AI JOBS chapter 8 AI education chapter 9 virtual productivity ai maps 2025 report page index us 1985 printing if you need page lasered rsvp chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk chap 10 transforming government -AI CHAP 11 - AI HEALTH CHAP 11 bis AI health part 2 16 ai biotech 17 ai population 18 ai food 19 ai green 20 ai green part 2   21 ai drugs 22 ai mind 23 ai home 24 alien judgement - are humans safe to share intel with? Permalink Reply by chris macrae 23 minutes agoDelete wise_0001.pdf wise_0002.pdf wise_0009.pdf wise_0010.pdf wise_0011.pdf wise_0012.pdf wise_0013.pdf wise_0014.pdf wise_0015.pdf wise_0016.pdf wise_0017.pdf wise_0018.pdf wise_0019.pdf wise_0020.pdf wise_0021.pdf wise_0022.pdf wise_0023.pdf wise_0024.pdf wise_0025.pdf " style="margin: 0px 35px 0.7em 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: inherit; font-size: 1em; text-overflow: ellipsis; overflow: hidden;">       wise_0001.pdf wise_0002.pdf wise_0009.pdf wise_0010.pdf wise_0011.pdf wise_0012.pdf wise_0013.pdf wise_0014.pdf wise_0015.pdf wise_0016.pdf wise_0017.pdf wise_0018.pdf wise_0019.pdf wise_0020.pdf wise_0021.pdf wise_0022.pdf wise_0023.pdf wise_0024.pdf wise_0025.pdf =========================================== previous jottings include considerbangladesh.ppt breaking news-what are world leaders gossiping about in july 2021   38th annual newsletter- dialogue started Economist's norman macrae 1984 book 2025 report- only education transformation can save 21st c from extinction - reason von neumanns tech revolutions 60s through 2020s 100 times more dramatic than scots watt/smith 1760-1939 climaxing in world war and UN  -footnote how 1985 readers can imagine 2025'stotally different world …
Added by chris macrae at 7:16am on June 10, 2021
Comment on: Topic 'Entrepreneurial Revolution (ER)'
d to sponsor the 2022 NFT Awards at NFT.NYC. This year, we’re excited to celebrate some of the most incredible and influential projects, creators and communities in the NFT space this year.  On June 21, to kick off this year’s NFT.NYC, OpenSea and NFT.Kred will hand out awards to the top collections in various categories such as, highest volume drops, top earning fundraiser NFT projects and more. Data for top categories is pulled from OpenSea*, while winners in other, more subjective categories — such as Best NFT artist and Most Innovative NFT projects — are selected based on community voting. All NFT Awards winners will have their pieces on display in the NFT.NYC Gallery in the Event Atrium at the Marriott Marquis throughout the conference. The gallery is open to all attendees with a conference badge until the end of NFT.NYC on Thursday, June 23. We’ll be providing full coverage of the 2022 NFT Awards on our social channels, and we’ll be updating this post to include the full list of winners after Tuesday night’s award show. *Award Methodology: Data for Top Awards is pulled from OpenSea based on each category, (such as sales volume, transactions or number of holders) from the last 12 months (May 26, 2021 – May 26, 2022). All other awards are determined by community voting. Over 18,000 votes were received for this year’s awards. UPDATE – 6/21 Here is the complete list of winners of The 2022 NFT Awards: Top Collection by Sales Volume Bored Ape Yacht Club Top Collection by Transactions Zed Run Top Art Collection by Volume My Curio Cards Top Collectibles Collection by Volume Bored Ape Yacht Club Top Music Collection by Volume The Orbs by BT Top Photography Collection by Volume Where My Vans Go Top Gaming Collection by Volume Parallel Alpha Top Art Collection by Transactions The Art of Seasons Top Collectibles Collection by Transactions Adam Bomb Squad Top Music Collection by Transactions Dogg on it Top Photography Collection by Transactions Editions x Guido Top Gaming Collection by Transactions Zed Run Largest Single Day Drop Otherdeed for Otherside Most Unique Holders ENS Top NFT Collection for Good RELI3F UKR Highest Volume Collection with CC0 Copyrights CrypToadz by GREMPLIN Highest Volume Collection from Asia Murakami.Flowers Seed Highest Volume Collection on the Klaytn Blockchain THE META KONGZ Highest Volume Collection on the Polygon Blockchain Zed Run Highest Volume Collection on the Solana Blockchain Degenerate Ape Academy Most Innovative NFT Project Bored Ape Yacht Club Most Innovative NFT Smart Contract CyberBrokers Best NFT Artist XCOPY Best Emerging NFT Artist FEWOCiOUS Best Established NFT Artist Beeple Best Digital NFT Artist Fvckrender Best Non-digital NFT Artist Drift Best Traditional Artist turned NFT Artist Takashi Murakami Best Use of Emerging Technology for Digital Art Cyber Brokers Best Use of Artificial Intelligence for Digital Art Alethea AI Best NFT Art Gallery ONCYBER Best New Player Onboarding Experience Wolf Game Best Gaming Community Wolf Game Best Blockchain Gaming Company Wolf Game Best Play to Earn Mechanics Axie Infinity The Diversity Award The Royals Best Environmental Initiative from an NFT Project Woodies Best Sustainability Initiative of a Blockchain or Protocol Polygon Most Impactful Charity NFT Project Not Your Bro Best NFT Financial Advisor Dr. Hans Most Expert handling of the Law and NFTs NFT Law Guy Best Use of NFTs for Digital Identity ENS Domains Best Combined use of NFTs and DeFi Arcade Best Onboarding Experience for New NFT Users BFF Best Interoperability Experience for NFTs BeeFrens x Bad Bears Best NFT Project for Creators manifold.xyz Best Blockchain for NFTs Ethereum Best Application of NFTs in the Music Industry 3LAU Best Fashion NFT Project RTFKT Best NFT Media Rug Radio Best Written Coverage of NFTs nft now Best NFT Display ONCYBER Best NFT Marketplace OpenSea Best Whitelabel Marketplace Creation Platform InfiniteWorld Best Use of NFTs by a Consumer Brand Nike Best NFT Business Model Bored Ape Yacht Club …
Added by chris macrae at 10:41am on September 2, 2022
Topic: ai for everyone
east until 2030 VALUE: man-made intelligence should be a freedom for everyone to improve lifetime around - lets gamily intelligence - who do you see as most advancing humanity since 1951 & now?- here are around 30 brain-enriching networks voted as crucial in first 6 months of gamifying AI AIgames.solar -who'd you add or subtract next? 2 VIP braingames Imagenet and DeepMind-Alphafold2 Our recommendation after 6 months of piloting AIgames for everyone is : explore why Imagenet leader Fei-Fei Li celebrated thousands of top AI research teams around deepest data ever connected up to year 2017 AND then see why up to a million biotech researchers already use AI's 200 million protein database called alphafold2 innovated by DeepMind around leader Hassabis The chats of 2023 wouldn't exist if it hadn't been for Li and Hassabis. It took about 13 years before other technologists believed deep learning machines were possible.    The choices we can all demand AI designers do carefully in the next 8 years will likely change the world for better or worse more than moon races or anything humans have ever witnessed.: What for example does Bill Gates mean when he says AI is about to change education  totally can ai unite languages (mother tongues) in  ways that unite 8 billion humans and mother earth on more peaceful pathways? earth are to continue with each other  23-24 Future is arguably the most exciting year to be alive but we recommend next taking stock of 30 humans from birth of brainworking engines 1951 to now - watch ai very good events listing- choose your next ai stars - nuance upd 12/23.1 we start with the NET - Neumann Einstein Turing because access to the Royal Society's English Diaries of Globalisation/Commonwealth centred around The Economist of London as weekly chatsheet since 1843, the NET launched brainworking engines as the 6th man-made (ie artificial ) engine in 1951 Neumann Princeton 1930 Einstein Princeton 1932 Turing Princeton 1939 - the mutual intent of these 3 greatest mathematicians was everyone's brain and lifetime could benefit; the NET had a peculiar view of the world - they saw engine type 5 as communications engines (telegraph on) intended for worldwide cooperation metahub switzerland ITU  1865 which followed on central europe's lead in developing electricity c 1950; the first 3 engine types had started out of glasgow - physical power of engines; automation consequences eg factory life; transportation starting with railways DEATH OF DISTANCE : COST & EXPS of DISTANCE. From 1964 The Economist foresaw DOD ; early in 21st C  satellites would make marginal cost of sharing and apping life-critical knowhow  - of course all manmade (artificial) engine types interconnect multiplying each others exponentials consequences; valuetrue models possible ups ans well as how multiplying downs now verges us on extinction as human lives are no longer geographically separable but the value and who has access locally and globally varied hugely and needs mapping to understand eg why as late as 1950 asians were 2/3 of humans but less than half had access to electricity grids; ultimately where white western europes ruled world trade explains whose lives were advanced by engines and who stayed in rural village largely unchanged since 1760  .Male Intels who helped advance Womens Intel since 2001: Abed   BGates     JYKim AGuterres ; Females now accelerating womens intel Melinda Gates*A'Ja wilson*NaOsaka (thks EJ year 63)*BJKing*CTsai*Beyonce-CRice 1 2*CShih*Fei_Fei Li HumansAI Li Hassabis Hinton Lecun *Bengio *... YouthAi -continues Jobs Valley Interventions 2001 * Li Ka Shing* J Yang * ANg* Daphne Koller ... integration of WHY AI - top brain team google, ceo nvidia , ceo AI2 ...` Whats notable is HumansAi Li & Hassabis were under 30 when their phds changed the theory  of AI in 00s; also Stanford became the most welcome cooperation centre of gravity for decade ,log investment needed to make deep learning zing;   then scaling change exponentially from 2012 proof of imagenet as wolrd's most valuable databank spanning 20000 tools and life forms human race lives with - its difficult to prove who's intel under 30 today matters most but 3 youth we  as Entrepreneurial Revolution monitors since 1976 follow from world world bank youth Summit audrey cheng and Diva; from world of pop sonita alizadeh  Right now there is a big question as to who is humanity's number 1 under 35 of LLM or chat design- our concern being with who will help design the LLM needs if millennials race to be the first sdggeneration - we dont think this who is seeable yet though we are hoping AIgames players will provide earliest clues AIgames likes biq questions rsvp chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk NET asks 1950s most valued QUESTION _ CAN BRAINWORKING ENGINES RESOLVE 2 WORLD WARS? Lifetimes of Neuman-Einstein Turing show: Urgent Immigration to USA by both  Einstein and Neumann  had grown up in region where Nazi Germany was spiraling from 1920 - both for their own safety and to make sure Hitler & Stalin did not win the nuclear race Einstein biggest years 1905 published paper with E=mc²  ;1915 Relativity - tried to unite worldwide intellectual cooperation League of Nations & ITU Geneva early 1920s; first trip to usa 1921 part of what became a world tour; left German-centric Europe 1930 emigrated usa 1932 after stay in oxford Born 1879 , Einstein was 24 years older than V Neumann and 33 years older than Turing; this also means that by 1945 when all three were free of war time secrets , Einstein was already 66 and not producing breakthrough maths but chatting a lot about future of education (eg to Gandhi Freud Russell as well as black college students); it was Turing now 33 and v neumann now 42 that spent almost every living moment on brainworking machines - what wasnt known when the economist started compiling their diaries was by 1957 all 3 of these greatest maths wizards would have parted earth. This is one reason why all of the NET would be shocked how late ai for very good has become humans last chance to prevent extinction. Specifically we discuss Einstein views of education; Turing's expectation that biggest investors would build access to deepest most transparent data; Neumann mediation of almost every societal risk which he ultimately saw as needing large language model mediating English and Asian language through 999 other mother tongues to one language of very good autonomous governance valuing human and natures laws as one…
Added by chris macrae at 6:48am on December 2, 2023
Comment on: Topic 'Massive Collaboration Economy - Opportunity and Threats to Net Generation Entre…'
womb before he stretches out a tiny clasping hand, and from that time forth he will constantly stretch out to touch the world that lies about him and the folk that dwell therein. The purpose of our growth in life is to bring us into unity with the universe into which we are born, to make us aware that we are not lonely individual meteors hurtling blindly through an abysmal dark, but living parts of a living whole. As we grow we learn to love more and more: first ourselves; then the family within the small kingdom of the home; then the school, the wider circle of friends, the home community, the college, and the still wider community of the nation; and finally, the greatest country of all, which has no boundaries this side of Hell, and perhaps not even there. Boulding (1942) "The Practice of The Love of God", William Penn Lecture, delivered at Arch Street Meetinghouse, Philadelphia, 1942. In: Friends' Intelligencer, Vol. 99 p.231-261   The ultimate "causes of price" - to use a Classical term - lie deeply embedded in the psychology and techniques of mankind and his environment, and are as manifold as the sands of the sea. All economic analysis is an attempt to classify these manifold causes, to sort them out into categories of discourse that our limited minds can handle, and so to perceive the unity of structural relationship which both unites and separates the manifoldness. Our concepts of "demand" and "supply" are such broad categories. In whatever sense they are used, they are not ultimate determinants of anything, but they are convenient channels through which we can classify and describe the effects of the multitude of determinants of the system of economic magnitude. Boulding (1944) "A Liquidity Preference Theory of Market Prices". In: Economica, New Series, Vol. 11, No. 42 (May, 1944), pp. 55-63. C. Brown (2003) "Toward a reconcilement of endogenous money and liquidity preference" in: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. Winter 2003–4, Vol. 26, No. 2. 323 commented on this article, saying: "Boulding (1944) argued that if liquidity preference were divorced from the "demand for money," the former could come into its own as a theory of financial asset pricing. According to this view, rising liquidity preference or a "wave of bearish sentiment" is manifest in a shift from certain asset categories, specifically, those that are characterized by high capital uncertainty (that is, uncertainty about the future value of the asset as a result of market revaluation) to assets such as commercial paper or giltedged securities." The greater the penalties laid on sellers in the black market... the higher the black market price. Boulding (1947) "A Note on the Theory of the Underground economy". In: The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science. Vol. 13 no.1, p. 117; quoted in: Michael York (2007) The Entrepreneurial Outlaw Conventions of generality and mathematical elegance may be just as much barriers to the attainment and diffusion of knowledge as may contentment with particularity and literary vagueness... It may well be that the slovenly and literary borderland between economics and sociology will be the most fruitful building ground during the years to come and that mathematical economics will remain too flawless in its perfection to be very fruitful. Boulding (1948) "Samuelson's Foundations: The Role of Mathematics in Economics," In: Journal of Political Economy, Vol 56 (June). as cited in: Peter J. Boettke (1998) "James M. Buchanan and the Rebirth of Political Economy". Boettke further explains "Boulding's words are even more telling today than they were then as we have seen the fruits of the formalist revolution in economic theory and how it has cut economics off from the social theoretic discourse on the human condition." Economic Analysis, 1941 Source: Boulding (1941) Economic Analysis. Rev. ed.: 1947, 1948, 1971. [This book] is intended as a text from which the student can learn and the [[teacher] can teach the methods and results of economic analysis. It also seeks to be a contribution to the development and systematization of the body of economic analysis itself. These purposes are not separate. The task of presenting a systematic, orderly, and accurate account of economic analysis is identical with the task of preparing the material for teaching. It must be emphasized, however, that the purpose of this work is not primarily to entertain the student, or to enable him to regurgitate appropriate material into examination books, or to learn a few pat phrases, or to indoctrinate him with an abstract discipline which he will never use. Economics is like photography in this respect, that under-exposure is less desirable than no exposure at all. p. xv A distinguished economist, on being asked to define the subject matter of his science, once replied, "Economics is what economists do".- Boulding, 1941 Mathematicians themselves set up standards of generality and elegance in their exposition which are a bar to understand.- Boulding, 1941   We have defined the main task of economic analysis as the explanation of the magnitudes of economic quantities. The student will find also that the main part of this, as of most other works on the subject, is concerned with the theory of the determination of prices, wages, interest rates, incomes, and the like. He may well inquire, therefore, in the midst of so much mathematics, whether the first task of economics is not the investigation of wealth, or welfare. Some economists have endeavored to restrict the boundaries of the science to the investigation of those quantities which are numerically measurable. Well-being, under such a restriction, would not be part of economics at all. p.7-8 Thus we seem to be on the verge of an expansion of welfare economics into something like a social science of ethics and politics: what was intended to be a mere porch to ethics is either the whole house or nothing at all. In so laying down its life welfare economics may be able to contribute some of its insights and analytical methods to a much broader evaluative analysis of the whole social process. p.34. (rev. ed. 1948) cited in: J.P. Roos (1973) Welfare Theory and Social Policy: A Study in Policy Science - Nummer 4. p.102 [In this auction we may expect the article to be sold to] "the most eager buyer at a price which is just about the highest he is willing to pay, for in this case the most eager buyer does not know what prices the other buyers are willing to give [and] ... each buyer fear that someone may slip in ahead of him. p.42 as cited in: Vernon L. Smith (1991) Papers in Experimental Economics. p.516 Mathematicians themselves set up standards of generality and elegance in their exposition which are a bar to understand. p.236 (rev. ed. 1948) cited in: G.C. Harcourt, C. Sardoni (1992) On Political Economists and Modern Political Economy. Vol 4. p.197 [The consumer is] the supreme mover of economic order... for whom all goods are made and towards whom all economic activity is directed. p.613 (rev. ed. 1948) as cited in: Andrew McMeekin (2002) Innovation by Demand. p.131 The process of consumption... is the final act in the economic drama p.614 (rev. ed. 1948) as cited in: Andrew McMeekin (2002) Innovation by Demand. p.131 There is reason for this shift of emphasis from any actual price to a hypothetical 'equilibrium' price. It is usually more interesting to know where a train is going than to know exactly where it is at any moment. The 'equilibrium' position of any price, wage, firm, industry, or system is the position toward which it is tending. The importance of equilibrium analysis, then, is that it enables us to discuss the directions of change. If a train is in New- York and its 'equilibrium' position is in Chicago, we are reasonably confident that the general direction of its motion will be westward, even if it unaccountably decides to travel north for the first hundred and fifty miles. p.637-638 (rev. ed. 1947); cited in Macroeconomische theorie ingeleid en voortgezet. Kluwer, 2006. p.3 The theory of the firm in the last ten Years, 1942[edit] Source : Boulding (1942) "The theory of the firm in the last ten Years" in: The American Economic Review. Vol. 32, No. 4, Dec., 1942. p.791-802 It is probable that when future historians of economic thought look back over this century, the thirties will appear as an era of rapid development in economic theory. Not only has there been unusual activity in monetary theory, theory of value. but extensive transformations have also been made in the basic theory of value. The outstanding publications in this field are, of course, Joan Robinson's Theory of Imperfect Competition and Chamberlin's Theory of Monopolistic Competition, the first produced in Cambridge, England, and the second in Cambridge, Massachusetts. These volumes mark the explicit recognition of the theory of the firm as an integral division of economic analysis upon which rests the whole fabric of equilibrium theory. General equilibrium is nothing more than the problem of the interaction of individual economic organisms, under various conditions and assumptions; as a necessary preliminary to its solution, an adequate theory of the individual organism itself is necessary. p.791 The discounting presumably is to be done for each period of time at that rate of interest which represents the alternative cost of employing capital in the occupation in question; that is, at the rate which the entrepreneur could obtain in other investments p.793 cited in: Pedro Garcia Duarte (2010) "A Path through the Wilderness: Time Discounting in Growth Models" [The theory of the firm] is exactly analogous to the analysis of the reactions of a consumer by means of indifferent curves. Indeed, a consumer is merely a ‘firm’ whose product is ‘utility’. p.799 The use of isoquants to describe the production function did not develop to any great extent until the thirties. p.800 cited in: P. Lloyd (2012) "The Discovery of the Isoquant - History of Political Economy" The Economics of Peace, 1945[edit] Source: Boulding (1945) The Economics of Peace. Prentice Hall. The main key to the economics of the postwar world is a simple truism — that the rate of accumulation is equal to the rate of production less the rate of consumption. This is the "Bathtub Theorem." Production may be likened to the flow of water from the faucet, consumption to the flow down the drain. The difference between these two flows is the rate at which the water in the bathtub - the total stockpile of all goods - is accumulating.War drains the economic bathtub in a great waste of consumption. The first problem of reconstruction is to rebuild the stockpile. It can be rebuilt only by widening the gap between production and consumption, or, in the case of a single country, by importing more than is exported. It is difficult for a ravaged country to increase either its production or its net imports. Unless it can obtain outside help, therefore, it must suffer a drastic restriction of consumption. Frequently the only way consumption can be restricted is by inflation. Here, therefore, is the key to the most fundamental problems of reconstruction. Preface This concept of capital-rebuilding is so important that it may be desirable to digress for a moment. In the broadest sense of the word, capital means the sum total of the valuable things possessed by the individuals of a society, excluding "claims," that is, mere titles to property. The word is used to mean both the inventory of these valuable things; the houses, factories, machines, livestock, stocks of raw materials, and goods in all stages of completion; and also to mean the sum of the values of these things. It should generally be clear from the context which of these two meanings is intended. p.5 Economic problems have no sharp edges. They shade off imperceptibly into politics, sociology, and ethics. Indeed, it is hardly an exaggeration to say that the ultimate answer to every economic problem lies in some other field.- Boulding, 1945 Reconstruction is merely a special case of economic progress. If we are to understand its problems thoroughly, we must examine what is meant by economic progress and try to discover how it comes about... Economic progress is not altogether easy to define and is even more difficult to measure. Nevertheless, the phrase clearly corresponds to a meaningful idea. We have only to contrast a savage society with our own. In a savage society, the same customs, the same techniques, the same ways of doing everything, from ploughing to praying, are maintained generation after generation, son following exactly in the footsteps of his father and daughter in the footsteps of her mother, without deviating an inch from the well-trodden way. In modern civilized society, on the other hand, there is constant change and flux; we are constantly improving on the methods of our ancestors, and indeed one of the surest ways to discredit anything is to call it "old-fashioned!" p.73 The profit motive should not be confused with the profit system. By the profit system, of course, we mean the institution of private property in capital goods and the free private enterprise that goes along with it. There is no reason why the "profit motive" should be necessarily connected with the profit system. In a profit system there is nothing to prevent anyone acting on altruistic lines; there is no law that says a businessman must maximize his profits. If a businessman chose to operate with outputs, prices, and wages that yielded him a smaller profit than the maximum, but which he felt were socially more desirable, there is nothing in the profit system that would prevent him from doing this. Nothing in the profit system would prevent the most ardent liberal from refusing an increase in wages, or from accepting an unpleasant and poorly paid job. At the other extreme, there is nothing in a communist system that would do away with the profit motive, or the "advantage motive." p.239 …
Added by chris macrae at 12:57pm on September 8, 2013
Topic: Norman Macrae The Economist 1991 Ending Poverty , Ending Politicians
tury of sustaining society's most life critical services- that much was communally obvious ( worth freeing schoolchildren to debate)- as his last signed survey in The Economist was published - 44 years after joining The Economist and 20 years after starting up the Net Generation job creating curriculum of Entrepreneurial Revolution (update 2014who's Democracy The Economist ) Future History A Future History of privatisation, 1992 - 2022 The Economist 21st December 1991 Norman Macrae looks forward to the end of politicians. IT is possible that the word "privatisation" first appeared in print in The Economist, just over 30 years ago, It was suggested by somebody now dead, who may have subconsciously pinched it from some-thing published earlier somewhere else. For those who used it in these columns, the word then seemed part of a hopeless crusade. In the 1960s it was hard to persuade even sensible people how wrong were those like J.K. Galbraith, who told eager politicians that the interests of the poor could be served best by spending much more of GDP through politician-dictated monopolies in-stead of market-leading common sense. Actually, in the 1960s rich countries were achieving marvellously greater equalisation in almost everything provided by private enterprise, but the underclass became further downtrodden in America's and Europe's inner cities whenever services were instead provided from the public purse. For the first time in history, millionaires and welfare mothers were spending their leisure hours in the same way: watching the same television programmes, from armchairs of the same comfort in similarly heated rooms, while other consumer durables spread to the living rooms, kitchens, bathrooms and (in some countries) parking spaces even of the few unemployed. So did opportunities for holidays in the sun and purchases of clothes; remember that in 1945 the average Englishman had owned only one pair of trousers. Supermarkets spread from the suburbs to the slums, and found similar expenditure per consumer there. There was no such equalisation between suburb and inner city in things where public servants spent increasingly more of the taxpayers' money. This was especially true on the worst public-housing estates, from which 90% of an area's crime might emanate; where it became unsafe to walk down graffiti-desecrated corridors, because anything that belonged to the community was deemed to belong to nobody; where life deteriorated into drugs, hopelessness, squalor. The great divide The luckiest young Londoners returning from the war in 1945 were those whose applications for flats in these great new tower blocks overlooking the Thames were, to their fury, turned down. They had to buy, for perhaps £1,500 in 1950, supposedly shoddier homes built by "speculative" builders several decades before, with weekly mortgage payments at about thrice a favoured council tenant's rent. Forty years later they had a capital asset worth perhaps £150,000, while the "favoured" tenant had something worth nothing, except a vicious circle of hell. In the inner cities, police protection, state education, safeguarding of poorer people's life environment grew steadily and - for both taxpayer and customer - ever more expensively worse. After vast inpouring of public money, people in poor areas had to send their children to more modernly-built but much nastier and less parent-selected schools, where their kids had a growing prospect of being turned into drug-addicted delinquents. After quadrupled spending police protection in the Bronx, the prospect of a mugger being apprehended there fell to under 2%, so mugging became an attractive way of teenage life. In Lyndon Johnson's presidency, 1963-69, America created a huge welfare state, which proceeded to cripple instead of aid its clients. All of the forward indices of misery (illegitimacy, welfare dependency, lack of neighbourliness, crime, drugs, riot so as to loot) grew worse. In Britain the "commanding heights of the economy" had been nationalised originally on the argument that it would be too easy to make vast profits in these great monopoly industries (like coal, rail, steel, ship-building, public utilities). As soon as the state took over these industries, they plunged into vast losses instead. They were operated in the interest of their unions, instead of their customers, and without any innovative spark. If a middle manager in a private company thinks his boss is making a horlicks of his job, he can set up another firm in competition. If he is in a state firm, he writes a memorandum which says the boss is making a horlicks; and loses all chance of promotion. In Russia he got shot. The inefficiency of state spending in rich countries was shown further when the mighty United States began to lose a war to slightly ridiculous North Vietnam, despite spending 1,000 times more money on its arms and soldiers than did Hanoi. Nobody listened, then everybody did. At the time I was doing some moonlighting work with an American management consultant. Together we tried to invent new Greek-derived words, distinguishing between activities which were wholly driven by customers' demand (and were generally succeeding), and those driven by expenditure of taxpayers' or sometimes private money (whose productivity declined with each extra zillion pumped in). None of these Greek words caught on. In The Economist we tried terms like recompetitioning and privatisation. Privatisation was meant to signify the return to profitable private motivation of anything that had declined through unprofitable state intervention, in Europe usually through state ownership, in America usually through excessive regulation (including what Herman Kahn called "health and safety fascism"). The clear advantage of privatisation was that everybody working in private businesses, from the entrepreneurs to the often non-unionised workforce, got more money if their new ways of doing things succeeded (a success they sometimes overhyped). If they did not attract more customers, they went bust. People in public activities soon learnt that they got more money if their settled ways of doing things failed, because then they could wail that governments must pump still more money to them. One school in south London produced 80% of the juvenile delinquents in its area; the educational authorities directed ever more money to its often absentee and strike-ridden staff; because so many of their pupils were truant (sometimes after a hard night mugging), they clearly faced "special problems". Today's Soviet Disunion produces far more wheat, rye, potatoes, barley than the United States; yet Moscow faces bread riots because most of it fails to reach the shops. This is because the distribution system is socialist, so nobody has an incentive to move the stuff (as distinct from either staying away or turning up just to fill forms). That is also true in many town halls across the free world. Morale has naturally deteriorated in all the activities run in the failure-welcoming socialist way. Economic decline has correlated closely with the proportion of the workforce in public-sector jobs, from Merseyside (way above the British average) to Brezhnev's Omsk(100%). But during the 1970s those of us who appealed for reform via privatisation were still generally regarded as nuts. The word barely appeared in Margaret Thatcher's 1979 election campaign. Then it took off. In the past dozen years, 1979-91, privatisation has become a real policy in more than 70 countries. Although the lead was given by Thatcherdom, some of the most extensive privatisers have been Labour governments in Australia, Scandinavia and Spain. Privatisation is seen in all the ex-communist countries as a means through which industries and services long buried under dead socialism can bring some springtime to the frozen earth above. The policy has taken wing in Japan (telecoms and railways) and the Asian dragons. It stumbles forward in the third world. Less than a decade after the Falklands war, British merchant banks are drawing fees from a Peronist government for advising on privatisations to stop Argentine industries being mismanaged by Peronist colonels. No-body could have imagined this 12 years ago. Unfortunately, much of it is being done the wrong way. Fortunately, the scope for further privatisation is everywhere huge. The rest of this article sketches a plausible future history for privatisation. The suggested timetable will be wrong, but things will move this way. Parochially, in a viewspaper published in London, this future history will most often be told as it may develop in Britain. Other countries may move at a faster pace, but this blinkering will protect the article from being diffused. It will also help emphasise that party political changes will not slow the caravan. Kinnock privatises coal and rail Start with the two industries which the British Tories have promised to privatise if returned to office: coal and the railways. In our scenario these would be privatised even by a Kinnock Labour government in the 1990s, although for opposite reasons. The fudged three-year agreement, whereby privatised British electricity firms have to buy some uneconomic British coal, runs out in 1993-94. The European Commission will be bound to forbid continuance of this clearly anti-competitive arrangement. The number of viable deep British pits will then fall from today's 68 to about three. The Kinnock government would not want a nationalised coal company to fight the long strike with Arthur Scargill about this. It will therefore say that wicked Brussels has ordered coal privatisation (which it virtually will have done), and that the pits to remain open must be decided by the market. Some of the abandoned pits may have coal drawn from them by any teams of miners that find this economic, rather like anybody can go blackberrying. At first the attempted safety regulations will be tougher than potholing, but will then decay. In America the safety people were pilloried when they demanded the installation of a stretcher by the owner of a one-man mine. In the 1990s opencast mining, at present environmentally unpopular, will become environment-loved. The opencast machines rip off the topsoil, but are then required to replace it in the form that local people want which is no longer for agriculture, but as golf courses and pony-trekking land. This helps mitigate one of the worst drains on enterprise, which is that planning restrictions tend to forbid any land to be turned to alternative use. The railways will gain from the prejudice against changing land use. In the 1990s and 2000s crowded countries like Britain will sensibly turn to charging for occupying the roads. An electronic attachment on each vehicle, especially each lorry, will be activated whenever it enters an area where it adds to delay-causing traffic jams. The bill will be sent to the vehicle's owner, and be-come quite high. Coupled with technology that makes it much faster to load and unload containers at railhead, railways will be ripe for privatisation. As argued by Oliver Letwin (the Tory candidate standing against Glenda Jackson in Hampstead), a privatised railway system will become rather like an airport. A centralised body (which may not be privatised until the 2010s) will run the safety and signalling system. If anybody in the early 1950s had said how many thousandfold would rise the passenger miles flown on the airlines, and yet with a large drop in accidents, he would not have been believed. His surprise would be greater when told that efficiency would increase fastest when Ronald Reagan sacked all America's public-sector air-traffic controllers for going on strike. Today, incoming and take-off aircraft rarely run into each other, even though landing slots are being "chaotically" sold through private agents, even though all sizes and speeds of aircraft are taking off from and homing into the same narrow and some-times foggy runways. Thus it will become with the privatised railways. The opening of the Channel tunnel will allow new railway locomotives into Britain, which are half as expensive as British locomotives now and of much more varied design. Light railways (often driven by computers, sometimes by volunteer commuters) will run from exurbia to connect with rush-hour commuter trains, suddenly making profits again. Lush cruise trains will take rich Americans and Japanese through the cultural centres of Europe. The end of duty-free drinks at European airports in 1993 will be mitigated for international trains, the one form of transport where booze does no damage. Slightly more important, the railways will make money from the fibre-optic and other cables or the new-technology pipelines laid beside their tracks. Most important, property development will boom at stations and on other parts of the railways' ridiculously underused land. The world's richest billionaire in 1991 is a 55-year-old Japanese who spotted the money to be made from railway land in Japan. By the early 2000s the successful privatisation of British Rail will be followed by privatisation of the Bundesbahn, the trans-Siberian railway and every other railway on the Eurasian land mass. Other utilities will follow The success of railway privatisation will set the tone for the proper competitioning of other utilities. In electricity the grid should usually belong to a separate organisation, and entrepreneurs make money by feeding competitively into it. By the late 1990s the partial success of British electricity's privatisation will mean there is some sort of commodity price per kilowatt hour of electricity on the European grid. Suddenly scientists will manage, eg, to isolate hydrogen from something in which it abounds, like seawater, and feed it as a power source much more cheaply into that grid than electricity from coal or gas. This will be followed by the discovery of ever cheaper ways of releasing energy from storage in matter. All will come competitively into the grid. In the gas industry, British Gas will have lost its monopoly, because cheaper gas from Siberia will have to be allowed into its pipelines, after the 1996 free-trade agreement with the post-Gorbachev Soviet Union. During the brief 1991 Gulf War the Japanese invested in ways of bringing frozen natural gas from all round the Pacific. These will succeed. The near-bankrupt oil wells of the Middle East will have to follow, by exporting similarly cheap gas by all means to Europe and America. As energy prices fall, food prices will dramatically accompany them. After free trade with Russia, the EC's common agricultural cartel will collapse. Cheap food will pour in by rail from the black earth of Ukraine, as cruise trains to Samarkand pass them the other way. Telecommunications (whose grid is anyway disintegrating with mobile telephones) and television (recompetitioned by satellite) will also leave the public sector entirely. In tones similar to today's lessons about 19th-century child labour, sociologists will tell with horror of the exploiting classes' device named the BBC. A poll tax (called the licence fee) was levied on every family, even poor widows and pensioners in Hackney, in order to impose on them toffee-nosed programmes which only the upper middle classes (in the name of "culture") thought they wanted. Actually, as we will soon learn, the BBC's brief 74 years from 1922 to 1996 were when British culture rotted worst, because it was brought under duopoly control. Then everything, including the policy During the late 1990s the privatisation of the social services will gather worldwide pace. The first privatisations will take some disguised form of the "voucher" system discussed for decades. Everybody except the teachers' unions will see that schools should get money only if they attract pupils. Dreadful schools, which parents shun, should be closed. Each child will carry a voucher, paid for by the state, to the school of his choice. "Choice units" in each area will take parents round available schools, to show what is on offer. Many people will rightly say that children from disadvantaged backgrounds should have specially topped-up vouchers, so that schools should compete most keenly to attract them. At juvenile courts, orders will be made to increase the vouchers for offenders; some-times the parent will be ordered to pay the topping-up. Both the American and British health systems will gravitate towards a system of health maintenance organisations (HMOs, or bodies that compete to get your capitation fee, and then seek to provide all your health-care needs as economically as possible). In America the present fee-for-service system has proven quite uneconomic. Doctors make more money if they treat patients as expensively as possible after they become ill. The patients do not mind this money being spent, because it comes from insurance cover paid for under tax incentives by their employers. In its umpteenth attempt to stem the federal budget deficit, sometime in the 1990s, the American Congress will see that it can save tens of billions spent on hypochondriacs a year if it grants tax relief on employers' health insurance only up to the point where everybody can pay a basic HMO capitation fee. If anybody wants more expensive fee-for-service medicine, he must pay for it out of taxed income. Britain's NHS has always had something like an HMO system for its family doctors or general practitioners (GP's). But nearly 90% of British government NHS spending has gone to hospitals with hierarchies of state-salaried doctors, nurses and far too many trade-unionised workers (three times as many as in some of the better Japanese hospitals). The GP system, whereby Britons choose their family doctors and the government pays those doctors a capitation fee, has been reasonably successful. By any criterion of cost effectiveness, the NHS hospital system has not. In 1991, amid loud and sometimes mendacious political controversy, some seeds of reform have already been sown. Under the 1991 NHS reforms, budget-holding family doctors will compete to get patients into hospitals without waiting lists, and hospitals will get more money only if they thus attract patients. There are only minor and gradual steps from this reformed NHS system to a proper HMO system. Under any governments in Britain, those steps will occur. They will probably occur rather faster under a Labour government. Labour 1992-96 will have less public money to spend on the NHS than the Tories, because it has promised to spend so much more on other things, and (partly thereby) is bound to scare more money out of the country. Labour will have to try to spend the annual £30 billion or so on the NHS more effectively. The row about Tory reforms is that Tory "trust hospitals" then proceed to sack workers. Since British hospitals have long been overstaffed, that is what any reforms (including Labour's) will have to aim for. British prisons have long been a ridiculous public service, with negative gross production. They create recidivists, instead of cure criminals. A 20-year-old who is sent to prison is more likely to become a habitual criminal than one who narrowly escapes being sent there. America has moved towards some private-enterprise prisons, whose entrepreneurs will be paid more if their inmates do not recommit offences. In the decade 2000-10, governments will recognise that the same "recompetitioning" is also highly desirable for the police. Modern police forces have huge computer files of genetic fingerprints, ordinary fingerprints, case histories and behaviour patterns of particular villains and for particular crimes. These files are secret to everybody except the police, who (being a public-sector body) are PC Plods who are not innovative at using them. In the early 2000s the increased efficiency of hackers at breaking into secret files will bring scandal about the police into the media in many countries. There will be accusations that the police are deliberately not tracking down some big gangs of criminals, ostensibly because those criminals are paying them with information about other criminals, but really because they are paying them money. In Britain police will be found still concocting cases against black people, Irish people, long-haired youths, short-haired youths, other folk they dislike. The interesting question will explode: why should police files be kept secret? Some civil libertarians will say "the police have to keep secret the record of petty offender Joe Bloggs, because it would be wicked if all his neighbours know it." A compromise will be effected whereby each computer file, though thrown open to investigation by many competitors to the police, will have a number instead of proper name attached. After a certain stage in a criminal career, even that anonymity will be removed e.g., for the under 1% of people who commit over 50% of some crimes because, on release, they go straight back to offending and soon to prison again. Even in the early 1990s, each year spent by anybody in prison in Britain costs the state £25,000. Gradually, the whole unsuccessful police and justice system in most countries will be transformed, by recognising that it should be a modern open-to-everybody information industry. By 2000 the cost of lawyers will be falling fast. People will recognise that most of the work of lawyers can be done more quickly by telecommuting into programmes that interpret the statute law of England. Those programmes will answer the specific question you have posed via your personal computer. Cases in non-criminal law will then increasingly be settled by each side putting its case to the computer, and agreeing to accept its verdict. When a suspected criminal is arraigned before a court, the first question will at last rightly become "did he do it?" Until after about 2010, suspects will still be able, if they wish, to insist on submitting themselves to the present lottery system of adversarial lawyers, widely differing juries and erratic Lords Justice. But more and more criminals will agree to plea-bargain after seeing on computer file all the evidence against them, and the computer's judgment of how little chance they have of getting away with their defence. The courts will then usually go on to the next and civilised question, though preferably with the lightest punishment: "how best can we discourage you from doing this again?" There should be lots of competing organisations offering "if the state will pay us the £25,000 a year that it would otherwise cost to put this man in prison, we will try to reform him within the community in the following way. If he recommits an offence within a certain time, we lose our fee." Sometimes that will require electronic tagging of the man concerned. If so, he should have some choice of which regime he prefers. There will be an increase of "bobbies on the beat" (i.e., policemen within the community), but various competitive bodies will start submitting tenders for this job saying they will seek to simplify their tasks by, e.g., better street lighting near notorious trouble spots. Then, around 2010, local authorities will begin to change their way of providing municipal services. It is absurd that you should have to vote either Conservative or Labour when choosing who best can man-age your drains. Multinational corporations will appear On the ballot for local elections. They will say: "We will charge only this level of poll tax or property tax. We will promise by contract to reach the following targets for reduction in the crime rate, for environmental cleanliness, etc. If by the judgement of independent auditors we fail, we will have to remit some of your property tax to you. But we are confident we can fulfil this contract, and make a profit for our-selves at this level of property tax. Liverpool and New York city will be-come two of the first areas to elect commercial firms instead of politicians as their municipal authorities. The poor and the military By 2015 there will be only two main "public goods" left in the sense economists use the term (things best provided by government rather than markets). These two remaining public goods will be redistribution and military protection. These will then become competitivised. Some part of redistribution can be handled by insurance. "I want to make sure my income never falls below half the average income": for some people, that could be an insurable risk. Others, such as the handicapped, some elderly and a few children, need special help. This can best be provided competitively. Children in the care of local-authority homes in Britain have an appallingly higher delinquency rate than other children, including those from equally troubled families but foster-parented or in charitable institutions like Barnardos. "Public sector" means there is a trade-union row if employees are sacked for mere inadequacy, or for monstrous incompetence. In institutions on performance contracts, there can be a continuous search for methods that succeed. These performance contracts will eventually spread to tackle poverty. In the early 1990s the United States has 13% of its population below the officially defined poverty line, but an American has less than a 1% chance of staying long in poverty provided he or she does three things: completes high school, gets and stays married (not necessarily to the same person), stays a year in his first job even if at the minimum wage. People will start to bid for contracts to try to help "endangered people" thus to avoid being long in poverty, and some of the con-tracts will work. The future of defence can be seen from what happened in the Gulf war. Long-distance rockets can already be pinpointed down the bedroom ventilator of any dictator, or on to any of his lorries and tanks. More sophisticated weapons than that are not going to be needed any more. Idealists say that military operations should be put under the control of the United Nations. Since many of the nastiest dictators have votes in the UN, that would not work. But in the next two decades NATO will more or less join with the old Warsaw Pact, in what will become a rich man's club. NATO-Warsaw will keep a register of arms sent to any poorer countries, and will start to forbid any such sales. It will gradually assume a world policeman's role. It will equip itself at lowest price with stuff that actually works and will therefore probably buy much of its electronic hardware from the Japanese. It will recruit its soldiers in the cheapest high-quality markets: Gurkhas, Britain's SAS, Sons of old soldiers from various villages round the world with fighting in their blood. By the 2020s it will be recognised as absurd that only the Republican and Democratic parties should field serious candidates for (say) the 2024 election for president of the United States. A competing "contractual" candidacy will be emerging a cabinet team who say they will never raise income tax above 10% (watch their lips), but will contract to provide government of the following quality... …
Added by chris macrae at 6:49am on March 3, 2014
Comment on: Topic 'How Net Generation Values'
s are only free when their largest organisations valuetrue purposes aligned to exponentially sustaining the future (not serially crashing it). As of 2013 Banking, Energy, Food, Health, Education, Media, Fashion,  Professionals, Public Servants, Charities ... are markets that are neither free in terms of sustaining net generation productivity nor planetary sustainability. This is something youth summits in the 2010s must urgently be celebrated for changing.   1 we need to know whether Glasgow or somewhere else is going to stage sir fazle abed celebration and opening of microeducation summit -what connects the two is making khan ac type labs everywhere available for youth to test out which 9 minute training modules millions can create jobs with - today khaa has launched 60 minutes of code    1a zasheem - all of us dont want to rely only on Atlanta- that's why we need Glasgow as a top 5 moral capital of twin job creating capitals -eg navneet with association or orphan owners who want to become job-creating communities, naila's womens empowerment networks which with Monica's can bot have massive and selected opinion leader reach of the sort that can end irresponsibility of fashion markets or irresponsibility of any market youth can mediate   2 the journal of new economics needs to unite all next capitalism movements - that was the explicit headline of dads 1976 survey of Entrepreneurial Revolution- having first used the term in his 1968 survey of what South Africa need- it is interesting that 10 years later soros claims his first philanthropy was black youths in cape town   3 please identify which youth want to twin with glasgow as one of the 5 most collaborative twin million jobs capitals- specifically how- does your niece want to do something that connects youth with leaderless economy and eg ending $ as reserve currency; does st andrews student want to continue youth linking in what he got prize for at world bank youth summit- what is it that robbie wants to connect through youth and between glasgow and edinburgh   once you have a few scottish youth answers we can then start making a list of eg paris or madrid youth, or polish or hungary   4 get momentum on 1-3 and we can ask any citizen capitalism chapter how they want to value the journal of new economics/capitalism   5 i suggest you edit above in under 1 page  that mostofa can take it to lucknow and exchange views of whether there is anything lucknow wants to twin with glasgow- incidentally the school has been an incubator for the most relevant youth summits for at least 15 years now- it has used its classrooms for 50000 children to be off peak world summit hosts such as 13 annual world chief justice events and be a continuous contributor to president kalam's 2020 goal of youth must tear up any curriculum that is not sustainable- something that 9 minute khan labs make easy to viralise   chris   a rough family tree of next capitalism   1976 defined in The Economist survey of 25 December as : the economic challenge  replacing top-down and externalising systems of 20th c by bottom-up and open society systems: the youth challenge of revolution in open education; the cross-cultural sustainability challenges of borderless planet; the legal challenges of death of distance and mobilising open source tech   1984 net generation capitalism - defined round 3 billion new jobs and celebrating millenniums most humanly collaborative goals   c.1999 social capitalism defined by fast company as liberating citizens movement in every digitally linkedin capital; around the same time Lula in Brazil starts helping celebrations of world social summits- by the tome he becomes president he red-eyes overnight between world social and world economic summit converting schwab slowly from a PR host to something that has a bit more grounding particularly among the middle east leaders that his summit's trust uniquely depends on   c 2003 skoll uses sir fazle and muhammad yunus as trojan horses inside ashoka that never required its 3000 fellows to sustain business models- Yunus first rebrand social entrepreneurship social business entrepreneurship- by 2007 both future capitalism and conscious capitalism start to be talked about; by future capitalism yunus primarily means how to empower poorest villager networks to change aid and charity and philanthropy and taxes paid to government to solve and communally deliver social services when he strictly applies 100% social business capitalism- however when he trust a CEO market leader he relaxes the equity ownership rule of his model; by conscious caputalism mackey appears to mean what can ceos partner in celebraying with citizen chapters= to date both yunus and mackey use youth but havent shown intergatiion in open education processes in which youth are the action heroes…
Added by chris macrae at 5:15am on December 9, 2013
Comment on: Topic '2015SUSTAINABILITY- THE LAST 15 YEARS OF YOUTH's TO BE OR NOT TO BE'
ch launch UN start of 2013-2014 mashable summit - turned into change the world mooc- repeated typically end of each year (currently 2nd performance) - millennials alumni 50000+ Kim Transcripts  Jim Kim 2030nowjimkim2transcripts.doc, questions what open learning campus contents help millennials build #2030now what other world bank processes link in (youth summit, tedx, selected world bank live webinars 1 2 3 ...) what other dc-millennial world processes partner millennials valuation and 2030now what other future capitals processes linkin 2030now (eg Dhaka as first to experiment with mobile partnerships with poorest villages and champion of millennial goal forums starting with microcreditsummit in 1997)  or other back from future goal relate maps of millennial collaboration     Valuing Millennials: Alumni Webs - Who's Micro-up Who and How's Collaboration How Overall Kim Abed Soros Yunus W4E Asia M Americas M Africa M Gandhi family Blecher Samara, Khan elearning platforms ... Ma and Lee H: Health Farmer Kim Abed Brilliant Yunus Health millennials boston and . Peace-health millennials - tokyo, rome melbourne atlanta ... Samara Medicines sans frontieres and flying doctor models Komesaroff     E:Education Gandhi Montesorri (freire) Blecher Partners Abed Soros open society Gorbachev and Rome Samara MIT and media lab (edu) Khan Academy Coursera on demand -world bank OLC Gordon Dryden Ihubs run by tech Ma and Lee and MIT partners B: Banking Brac triple model Grameen's pre digital model Jamii Bora slum model Mpesa and bkash models and MIT wizards Kiva and puddle models Partners of Nabard -Intel agribanks for poorest Aflatoun financial literacy at primary Global association of banks with values Australia 10000 girls model Identifying pro-youth banks of microfranchises - convergence of role of bank, uni and mobile Nanocredit and woemn4empowerment Currencies bottom up and intergenerational rising beyond borders - soros  ineteconomics N: Nutrition - food and water security Alumni of Borlaug and Nippon Institute Abed and chief crop science Yunus most local nutrition- every bank branch with veg garden Polak - Dlab from treadle pumps to bottom up multinationals including water angels1 Grameen Intel and other eagri partners Ethiopian coop models of eg blessed coffee Ethiopia fair commodity exchange Aquaponics and locally processed nutrition- slow food celebrity chefs Other superorganics of beyond carbon world Water angels 2 eg bon agua networks round foz     E: Energy green and zero waste Neville Williams and solar learning curves since carter Alumni of Ray Anderson- almost any sector can profitably free itself from carbon energy in half a generation Biogas ovens a billion Solar a billion models yunus and                 OT: Open Tech IHubs Media Labs Ma & Lee - webnow Open Source Pracs Risk Ilabs               MT$: Trillion  $ models of sustainability rising exponentials 30000 microfranchise - celebrate with public media Debate whose purpose for each sector leads empower millennial livelihoods and sustainability most Yunus and the jobs olympics model of 100% social busienss 51%+ social business partnerships BRAC value chain redesign model KIM value chain redesign model Soros billionnaires who plant leapfrog models Polak bottom up miltinational model Ma redesign partners of internet can be so much bigger model W4E models Continent-wide (or mother tongue) millennials modets and massive coopetitions Open source, open everything models - how genome was open mapped Cambridge Uni                             ====================================== 1 Definitions of millennials I optimistically like to define #2030now round this search aligning social impact vision of Jim Kim and World Bank since 2012 I try to define millennials inclusively -primarily round 3 ideas: professionals aged 25-40 in 2015 are potentially most educated, connected and sustainability collaborative the world has ever celebrated those born from 1984 - ie either their they found their livelihoods started (age 16) in new millennium or both their education and livelihoods were born to be millennial. By millennial I mean principally 2 things- web or mobile connectivity changes everything you action or learn; there were some worldwide goals to navigate valuation of purpose of human race elders (or anyone not included in 1,2) whose live by investment models or open technology designs which value millennials -question 1 - if I havent included your scoping of millennials please comment   2 Examples of Millennials Who's Who My peer groups and I are most passionate about exploring these mapping legends Future Capitals being places with a world impacting institution that is supporting an exponentially rising valuation of millennials - examples DC has 2 cases I find most valuable to map - world bank since 2012, OAS since ; whereas Dhaka was the first capital to bring mobile connectivity to the villages in 1996 and its support of mocro0creditsummit from 1997 became one of the spaces that continuously debated millennium goals =which capitals do you continuously search through to linkin valuing millennials Practice areas- eg health millennials as of 2015 are a benchmark practice area open social invitations to join them ( see alumni mentored by eg Kim , Farmer or Abed); also review how those with longest learning curve of mobilising end of digital divides repeatedly come back to health as a test practice. Open Learning campus millennials may be at one of the critical tipping points of the next 3 years- at least I hope so as I will be in university class of 2015-2018. In this regard Atlanta may be a key US player of Future Capitalism http://youthcreativelab.blogspot.com By demographic cultures - such as gender (1 2 3) , faith, or national identity (note coming from scottish descendants a nation that mostly lives outside scotland- both resident and diaspora dynamics of national identity may inform mapping trust-flows) Type of global social (or business or microfranchise) valuation model and how it transparently integrates valuation of millennials around compound impacts Major conflict that everyone in the millennial network is connected to innovating systemically beyond   Question 2 -if I have excluded legend variables that matter to you -please discuss; otherwise lets get cataloguing (examples) who's millennials who     3 Has there been a particular moment when your or your family's future history was directly changed by exploring millennial possibilities. example my father's first job was with uk national development project in computer assisted learning 1972. This was anchored out of Leeds/Bradford - by then a relatively poor and multicultural part of the UK whose prime time had been during industrial revolution's early global markets for textiles. Three generations of our diaries questioning the coming entrepreneurial revolution of net generation have been continuously published since 1972   Question 3 - taking as long a view of intergeneration change as you can, which innovation issues do you prioritise as being next tipping points of #2030now? …
Added by chris macrae at 9:09am on November 28, 2014
Comment on: Topic 'ai celebrating greatest (ie most good for 8 bn beings) human intelligences (195…'
founder of openai the creators of chat gpt was one of our interns back in 2011. Jeffrey Hinton who was the who subsequently became the one of the heads of AI at Google and is known now as the Godfather of AI recently in the Press worried about theconsequences he was our first advisor our paid advisor I think his salary was 25 000 pounds a year to advise us so I think three of the six co-founders of openai at some point passed through deepmind either to give talks or were actually members of the team so really it was incredibly about timing you know we got 7:17 the timing absolutely right we were way ahead of the curve at that moment and somehow we managed to hang on so you you were there for a while and then let's fast forward a bit you can read the rest of this in the book you you now have co-founded and run inflection Ai and you are creating an AI called Pi which you can interact with if you like tell us what pi does so Pi stands for personal intelligence and I believe that over the next few years everybody is going to have their own personal AI there are going to be hundreds of thousands of AIS in the world they'll represent businesses they'll represent Brands every government will have its own AI every non-profit every musician 8:03 artist record label everything that is now represented by a website or an app 8:10 is soon going to be represented by an interactive conversational intelligent 8:16 service that represents the brand values and the ideas of whatever organization 8:22 is out there and we believe that at the same time everybody will want their own personal AI one that is on your side in 8:30 your corner helping you to be more organized helping you to make sense of the world it really is going to function as almost 8:37 like a chief of staff or you know prioritizing planning teaching 8:42 supporting supporting you so that sounds great um what does it actually mean though in 8:48 practice because so often this conversation about AI it's at this point then it turns into the apocalyptic we're going to end up you know wiping 8:55 ourselves out because there'll be some Rogue person you know sitting in a garage somewhere who will you know unleash a virus that will kill us all so 9:01 before we get to all of that stuff in let's say I don't know five years and you said 9:07 within the next three to five years you think AI will reach human level capability across a variety of tasks 9:15 perhaps not everything but a variety so paint a picture for us of what life will be like in five years 9:22 at 2028 and first of all will it be you and me here or will there be the kind of Mustafa AI bot 9:30 okay let me let me just go back 10 years just to to give you a sense for what has 9:37 already happened and why the predictions they'll make I think are plausible so 9:43 the Deep learning Revolution enabled us to make sense of raw messy data so we 9:49 could use AIS to interpret the content of images classify whether an image 9:56 contains dogs or cats what those pixels actually mean we can use it to 10:01 understand speech so when you dictate into your phone and it transcribes it and Records perfect text we can use it 10:08 to do language translation all of these are classification tasks we're essentially teaching the models to 10:15 understand the messy complicated world of raw input data well enough to understand the objects inside that data 10:23 that was the classification Revolution the first 10 years now we're in the 10:28 generative Revolution right so these models are now producing new images that you've never seen before they're 10:34 producing new text that you've never seen before they can generate pieces of music and that's because it's the flip 10:39 side of that coin the first stage is understanding and classifying if you like the second stage having done that 10:46 well enough you can then ask the AI to say given that you understand you know what a dog looks like now generate me a 10:53 dog with your idea of pink with your idea of yellow spots or whatever and that is an inter 10:59 it's a prediction of the space between two or three or four Concepts and that's 11:06 what's produced this generative AI revolution in all of the modalities as we apply more computation to this 11:13 process so we're basically stacking much much larger AI models and we're stacking 11:18 much much larger data the accuracy and the quality of these generative AIS gets 11:24 much much better so just to give you a sense of the trajectory we're on with respect to computation 11:30 over the last 10 years every single year the amount of compute 11:36 that we have used for The Cutting Edge AI models has grown by 10x so 10x 10x 11:43 10x 10x 10 times in a row now that is unprecedented in technology history 11:49 nowhere else have we seen a trajectory anything like that over the next five 11:54 years We'll add probably three or four orders of magnitude basically another thousand times the compute that you see 12:02 used today to produce gbt4 or the chat model that you might interact with and 12:07 it's really important to understand that that might be a technical detail or something but it's important to grab like sort of grasp that because when 12:14 people talk about gpt3 or gbt 3.5 or gbt4 the distance between those models is in 12:22 fact 10 times compute it's not incremental it's exponential and so the 12:28 difference between gbt4 and gbt2 is in fact a hundred times worth of compute 12:34 the largest compute infrastructures in the world basically to learn all the relationships between all the inputs of 12:40 all of this raw data what does that mean what does that entail enable them to do in the next 12:47 phase we'll go from being able to perfectly generate so speech will be perfect video generation 12:54 will be perfect image generation will be perfect language generation will be perfect to now being able to plan across 13:01 multiple time Horizons so at the moment you could only say to a model give me you know a poem in the style of X give 13:08 me a new image that matches these two Styles it's a sort of One-Shot prediction next you'll be able to say 13:15 generate me a new product right in order to do that you would need to have that 13:22 ai go off and do research to you know look at the market and see what was potentially going to sell what are 13:27 people talking about at the moment it would then need to generate a new image of what that product might look like 13:33 compared to other images so that it was different and unique it would then need to go and contact and manufacturer and 13:40 say Here's the blueprint this is what I want you to make it might negotiate with that manufacturer to get the best 13:46 possible price and then go and Market it and sell it those are the capabilities that are going to arrive you know 13:52 approximately in the next five years it won't be able to do each of those automatically independently there will 13:57 be no autonomy in that system but certainly those individual tasks 14:03 are likely to emerge so that means that presumably the process of innovation 14:08 becomes much much more efficient the process of managing things but it's a bit more efficient what does that 14:14 mean and let's let's stick with the upside for the moment I will I promise you we'll get to all the downsides of which there are many but but what is 14:20 that going to enable us to do I mean people talk about AI will help us solve 14:25 climate change AI will lead to tremendous you know improvements in healthcare just talk us through what 14:31 some of those things might be so we can see the upside intelligence has been the engine of 14:37 creation everything that you see around you here is the product of us interacting with some environment to 14:44 make a more efficient a more a cheaper table for example or a new iPad 14:49 if you look back at history you know today we're able to create we're able to produce a kilo of grain with just two 14:57 percent of the labor that was required to produce that same one kilo of grain 100 years ago so the trajectory of 15:05 Technologies and scientific invention in general means that things are getting 15:10 cheaper and easier to make and that means huge productivity gains right the 15:15 insights the intelligence that goes into all of the improvements in agriculture which give us more with less are the 15:22 same tools that we're now inventing with respect to intelligence so for example to stay on the theme of Agriculture it 15:29 should mean that we're able to produce new crops that are drought resistant that are pest resistant that are in 15:35 general more resilient we should be able to to tackle for example climate change and we've seen many applications of AI 15:42 where we're optimizing existing Industrial Systems we're taking the same big cooling infrastructure for example 15:49 and when we making it much more efficient again we're doing more with less so in every area from Healthcare to 15:55 education to Transportation we're very likely over the next two to three decades to see massive efficiencies 16:02 invention think of it as the interpolation I described with respect to the images the the the the AI is 16:10 guessing the space between the dog the pink color and the yellow spots it's 16:17 imagining something it's never seen before and that's exactly what we want from AI we want to discover new 16:24 knowledge we want it to invent new types of science new solutions to problems and I think that's really what we're likely 16:30 to get we I believe that if we can get that right we're headed towards 16:36 an era of radical abundance imagine every great scientist every entrepreneur 16:42 you know every person having the best possible Aid you know Scientific Advisor 16:48 research assistant chief of staff tutor coach Confidant each of those roles that 16:55 are today the you know exclusive Preserve of the wealthy and the educated and those of us who live in peaceful 17:02 civilized societies those roles those capabilities that intelligence is going 17:07 to be widely available to everybody in the world just as today no matter 17:13 whether you are a you know a millionaire or you earn a regular salary we all get 17:18 exactly the same access to the best smartphone and the best laptop that's an 17:23 incredibly meritocratic story which we kind of have to internalize you know the Best Hardware in the world no matter how 17:30 rich you are is available to at least the top 2 billion people and that is I think that is going to be 17:36 the story that we see with respect to intelligence right enough upbeat stuff that that was we've had 20 minutes of our 17:42 feet which is which is uh but you didn't call your 17:48 book you know becoming Nirvana you called it the coming wave and I'm told that you were thinking it the original 17:54 title was going to be containment is not possible I'm glad you didn't call it that it wouldn't have sold so well uh 18:01 but explain the argument you're making is not actually Nirvana is around the 18:06 corner in fact it's a much much more subtle argument than that so tell us what the downsides are and what it is 18:13 that your book the focus on containment is in the book is about yeah I mean I think I'm pretty wide-eyed 18:19 and honest about the potential risks and you know we if if you take the 18:24 trajectory that I predicted that more powerful models are going to get smaller 18:29 cheaper and easier to use which is the history of the transistor which is the history of every technology and you know 18:37 value basically that we've created in the world if it's useful then it tends to get cheaper and therefore it spreads 18:44 far and wide and in general so far that has delivered immense benefits to everybody in the world and it's 18:49 something to be celebrated proliferation so far has been a really really good 18:54 thing but the flip side is that if these are really powerful tools 19:00 they could ultimately Empower a vast array of Bad actors to destabilize our 19:06 world you know everybody has an agenda has a set of political beliefs religious beliefs cultural ideas and they're now 19:13 going to have an easier time of advocating for it you know so the extreme end of this spectrum you know 19:19 there are certain aspects of these models which provide really good coaching on how to manufacture 19:25 biological and chemical weapons it's one of the capabilities that all of us developing large language models over 19:31 the last year have observed they've been trained on all of the data on the internet and much of that information 19:37 contains potentially harmful things that's a relatively easy thing to control and take out of the model at 19:44 least when you're using a model that is manufactured by one of the big companies they want to abide by the law they don't 19:50 want to cause harm so we basically exclude them from the training data and we prevent those capabilities 19:56 the challenge that we have that everybody wants to get access to these models and so they're widely available 20:03 in open source you know you can actually download the code to run albeit smaller versions of 20:10 Pi or chat gbt for no cost and if that trajectory 20:15 continues over 10 years you get much much more powerful models that are much smaller and more you know transferable 20:23 and you know people then who want to use them to cause harm have an easier time of it I think that's a really important 20:29 distinction that there are you know the leading companies you Google deepmind 20:34 you know open AI who have the biggest models now and they're a relatively small number of these ones and they are 20:41 bigger and more powerful but not far behind are a whole bunch of Open Source 20:46 ones and so the question is then for your containment can you prevent the open source ones 20:54 which will potentially be available to the you know angry teenager in his garage or her garage can those ones be 21:00 controlled or not okay the darker side of my prediction is 21:06 that these are fundamentally ideas you know their intellectual property 21:11 it's knowledge and know-how an algorithm is something that can largely be expressed on three sheets of paper and 21:18 actually is readily understandable to most people it's a little bit abstract but it you can wrap your head around it 21:23 the implementation mechanism you know requires access to vast amounts of compute today but if in time you 21:31 remove that constraint and you can actually run it on a phone which you ultimately will be able to do in a 21:37 decade then that's where the containment challenge you know comes into view and I think that there are also risks of the 21:43 centralization centralized question right this is clearly going to confer power on those who are building these 21:49 models and running them you know my own company included Google and the other big Tech providers so we don't eliminate 21:55 risk simply by addressing the open source Community we also have to figure out what the relationship is between 22:01 these super powerful tech companies that have lots of resources and the nation state itself which is ultimately 22:07 responsible for holding us accountable so let's go through some of the most sort of frequently cited risks or indeed 22:15 negative consequences and and the one that you hear a lot is as AIS become you 22:22 know equivalent to or exceed human intelligence across a wide range of tasks they were be any jobs for any of us you know why would you employ a human 22:30 if you could have an AI so history suggests that that's bunkum you know we've never yet run out of jobs and you 22:36 know being a good paid up Economist I think it's a lump of Labor fallacy but lots and lots and lots of people say 22:41 this what's going to happen to the jobs where are you on that well let's just describe the lump of Labor fallacy because I think it's important to sit 22:47 with that because that is the historical Trend so far what it basically means is when we have when we automate things and we make 22:54 things more efficient we we create more time for people to invent new things and we create more health and wealth and 23:00 that in itself creates more demand and then we we end up creating new goods and services to satisfy that demand and so 23:07 we'll continually just keep creating new jobs and roles and you can see that in the last couple decades there are many 23:13 many roles that couldn't even have been conceived of 30 years ago from App 23:18 designer all the way through to the present day prompt engineer of a large language model so that's one trajectory 23:24 that is likely I think the question about what happens with jobs depends on your time Horizon 23:30 so over the over the next two decades I think it's highly unlikely that we will see structural disemployment where 23:38 people want to contribute their labor to the market and they just can't compete I think that's pretty unlikely there's 23:44 certainly no evidence of it in the statistics today beyond that I do think it's possible 23:51 that many people won't be able to even with an AI produce things that are of 23:57 sufficient value that the market wants them and their AI jointly in the system I mean AIS are increasingly more 24:04 accurate than humans they are more reliable they can work 24 7. they're you 24:10 know more stable and so you know I I think that that's definitely a risk and I think that we should lean into that 24:17 and be honest with ourselves that that is actually maybe an interesting and 24:22 important destination I mean work isn't the goal of society sometimes I think we've just forgotten that actually 24:30 society and life and civilization is about well-being and peace and 24:35 prosperity it's about creating more efficient ways to keep us productive and healthy many people you know probably in 24:43 this room and including us enjoy our work we love our work and we're lucky enough and we're privileged enough to 24:49 have the opportunity to do exactly the work that we want I think it's super important to remember that many many 24:54 people don't have that luxury and many people do jobs that they would never do if they didn't have to work and so to me 25:00 the goal of society is a quest for radical abundance how can we create more with radically less and liberate people 25:08 from the obligation to work and that means that we have to figure out the question of redistribution and obviously 25:14 that is an incredibly hard one and obviously I address it in the book but is that to focus on what does taxation look like 25:20 in this new regime how do we capture the value that is created make sure that it's actually converted into Dollars 25:25 rather than just a sort of value add to GDP okay role of government you need to 25:31 have um 25:37 is that Ai and the rise of AI makes actually the functioning of democracy ever harder 25:44 we're already seeing lots of concerns about you know deep fakes wrecking the 25:49 2024 elections four billion people live in countries that will have elections next year people are worrying about 2024 25:55 never mind 28 or 34 and we just um Mustafa and I just had a conversation 26:01 with Yuval Harare who is as pessimistic as you are um thoughtfully optimistic who basically 26:08 said it was the end of democracy um uh I'm not sure that either you and I agreed but what is the consequence for 26:15 Liberal democracy in the coming decades in this world of AI I think the first thing to say is that the state we're in 26:21 is is pretty bleak I mean trust in in governments and in politicians and the 26:26 political processes as low as it has ever been um you know in in fact 35 percent of 26:32 people interviewed in in a Pew study in the US think that Army rule would be a good thing so we're already in a very 26:39 fragile and anxious State and I think that the you know to sort of empathize 26:45 with you Val for a moment the argument would be that you know these new technologies allow us to produce new 26:50 forms of synthetic media that are persuasive and manipulative that are highly personalized and they exacerbate 26:57 underlying fears right so I think that is a real risk we have to accept that 27:02 it's going to be much easier and cheaper to produce fake fake news right we have an appetite an insatiable addictive 27:10 dopamine hitting appetite for untruth you know it sells quicker it spreads 27:16 faster and that's a foundational question that we have to address I'm not sure that it's a new risk that AI 27:22 imposes it's something that Ai and other Technologies accelerate you know in and 27:28 that's the challenge of AI that is a good lens for understanding the impact that AI has in general it is going to 27:33 amplify the very best of us and it's also going to amplify the very worst of us 27:39 and what about the fact that this is developing in a world which geopolitically 27:44 split in in a way that it hasn't been at least in the last couple have been the post called War World at all so we have 27:51 the tensions between the US and China we have essentially a sort of race for Global dominance between these two 27:58 regimes in that kind of a world how can you achieve the sort of governance 28:04 structures that you write about in your book that are needed to try and you know perhaps prevent the most extreme 28:10 downsides of AI yeah I mean The Bachelors I've been accused of being an optimist about it I've also been accused 28:16 of being a utopian about the interventions that we have to make and I think that unfortunately that's just a 28:23 statement of fact what's required is good functioning governance and oversight I mean the the companies are 28:30 open and willing to expose themselves to audit and to oversight and I think that 28:36 is a unique moment relative to past generations of tech CEOs and inventors 28:42 and creators across the board we're being very clear clear that the precautionary principle is probably 28:48 needed and that's a moment when we have to go a little bit slower be a little bit more careful and maybe leave some of 28:55 the benefits on the tree for a moment before we pick that fruit in order to avoid harms I think that's a pretty 29:02 novel you know setup as it is but it requires really good governance it 29:08 requires functioning democracies it requires good oversight I think that we do actually have that in Europe I think 29:14 that the EU AI act which has been in draft now for three and a half years is super thorough and very robust and 29:21 pretty sensible and so in general I've been you know a fan of it and kind of endorsing it but 29:27 people often say well if we get it right in the UK or if we get it right in Europe and the US what about China I 29:33 mean I hear this question over and over again what about China and I I think that's a really Danger  …
Added by chris macrae at 2:44pm on October 30, 2023
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ENTREPRENEURIAL REVOLUTION NETWORK BENCHMARKS 2025now : Remembering Norman Macrae

cvchrismacrae.docx

2025REPORT-ER: Entrepreneurial Revolution est 1976; Neumann Intelligence Unit at The Economist since 1951. Norman Macrae's & friends 75 year mediation of engineers of computing & autonomous machines  has reached overtime: Big Brother vs Little Sister !?

Overtime help ed weekly quizzes on Gemini of Musk & Top 10 AI brains until us election nov 2028

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JOIN SEARCH FOR UNDER 30s MOST MASSIVE COLLABS FOR HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY

1 Jensen Huang 2 Demis Hassabis 3 Dei-Fei Li 4 King Charles

5 Bezos Earth (10 bn) 6 Bloomberg JohnsHopkins  cbestAI.docx 7 Banga

8 Maurice Chang 9 Mr & Mrs Jerry Yang 10 Mr & Mrs Joseph Tsai 11 Musk

12 Fazle Abed 13 Ms & Mr Steve Jobs 14 Melinda Gates 15 BJ King 16 Benioff

17 Naomi Osaka 18 Jap Emperor Family 19 Akio Morita 20 Mayor Koike

The Economist 1982 why not Silicon AI Valley Everywhere 21 Founder Sequoia 22 Mr/Mrs Anne Doerr 23 Condi Rice

23 MS & Mr Filo 24 Horvitz 25 Michael Littman NSF 26 Romano Prodi 27 Andrew Ng 29 Lila Ibrahim 28 Daphne Koller

30 Mayo Son 31 Li Ka Shing 32 Lee Kuan Yew 33 Lisa Su  34 ARM 36 Priscilla Chan

38 Agnelli Family 35 Ms Tan & Mr Joe White

37 Yann Lecun 39 Dutch Royal family 40 Romano Prodi

41 Kramer  42 Tirole  43 Rachel Glennerster 44 Tata 45 Manmohan Singh 46 Nilekani 47 James Grant 48 JimKim, 49 Guterres

50 attenborough 51 Gandhi 52 Freud 53 St Theresa 54 Montessori  55 Sunita Gandhu,56 paulo freire 57 Marshall Mcluhan58 Andrew Sreer 59 Lauren Sanchez,  60 David Zapolski

61 Harris 62 Chips Act Raimundo 63 oiv Newsom. 64 Arati Prab hakarm,65 Jennifer Doudna CrispR, 66 Oren Etsioni,67 Robert Reisch,68 Jim Srreyer  69 Sheika Moza

- 3/21/22 HAPPY 50th Birthday TO WORLD'S MOST SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY- ASIAN WOMEN SUPERVILLAGE

Since gaining my MA statistics Cambridge DAMTP 1973 (Corpus Christi College) my special sibject has been community building networks- these are the 6 most exciting collaboration opportunities my life has been privileged to map - the first two evolved as grassroots person to person networks before 1996 in tropical Asian places where village women had no access to electricity grids nor phones- then came mobile and solar entrepreneurial revolutions!! 

COLLAB platforms of livesmatter communities to mediate public and private -poorest village mothers empowering end of poverty    5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5  5.6


4 livelihood edu for all 

4.1  4.2  4.3  4.4  4.5 4.6


3 last mile health services  3.1 3,2  3.3  3.4   3.5   3.6


last mile nutrition  2.1   2.2   2.3   2.4  2.5  2,6


banking for all workers  1.1  1.2  1.3   1.4   1.5   1.6


NEWS FROM LIBRARY NORMAN MACRAE -latest publication 2021 translation into japanese biography of von neumann:

Below: neat German catalogue (about half of dad's signed works) but expensive  -interesting to see how Germans selected the parts  they like over time: eg omitted 1962 Consider Japan The Economist 

feel free to ask if free versions are available 

0 The coming entrepreneurial revolution : a survey Macrae, Norman - In: The economist 261 (1976), pp. 41-65 cited 105 

 Macrae,Norman -1976
cited 21
2 The London Capital Market : its structure, strains and management Macrae, Norman - 1955
 Macrae,Norman - 1963  
Macrae, Norman - In: IPA review / Institute of PublicAffairs 25 (1971) 3, pp. 67-72  
 Macrae, Norman - The Economist 257 (1975), pp. 1-44 
6 The future of international business Macrae, Norman - In: Transnational corporations and world order : readings …, (pp. 373-385). 1979 >
7 Future U.S. growth and leadershipMacrae, Norman - In: FutureQuest : new views of economic growth, (pp. 49-60). 1977 Check Google Scholar | 
Future U.S. growth and leadership assessed from abroad Macrae, Norman - In: Prospects for growth : changing expectations for the future, (pp. 127-140). 1977 Check Google Scholar | 
9Entrepreneurial Revolution - next capitalism: in hi-tech left=right=center; The Economist 1976
 9bis Into entrepreneurial socialism Macrae, Norman - In: The economist 286 (1983), pp. 23-29 
10 Do We Want a Fat, Corrupt Russia or a Thin, Dangerous One?
N Macrae - Worldview, 1981 - cambridge.org
… Even if Japan scales up efforts in military defense after such clarification, Japan's defense
spending is estimated to remain within 2 per cent of its GNP. Serious consideration should be
given to the fact that realization of new defense policies and military buildup in Japan is 
 11 Must Japan slow? : a survey Macrae, Norman -  The Economist 274 (1980), pp. 1-42 
12 No Christ on the Andes : an economic survey of Latin America by the Economist
 
13Oh, Brazil : a survey Macrae, Norman - The Economist 272 (1979), pp. 1-22 
14To let? : a study of the expedient pledge on rents included in the Conservative election manifesto in Oct., 1959 Macrae, Norman - 1960  
 15 Toward monetary stability : an evolutionary tale of a snake and an emu
Macrae, Norman -In: European community (1978), pp. 3-6
16 Whatever happened to British planning? Macrae, Norman - CapitalismToday, (pp. 140-148). 1971 Check Google Scholar | 
  Macrae, Norman - In: Kapitalismus heute, (pp. 191-204). 1974
18 How the EEC makes decisions MacRae, Norman - In: Readings in international business, (pp. 193-200). 1972 Check Google Scholar | 
Macrae, Norman - 1972
20 The London Capital Market : Its structure, strains and management Macrae, Norman - 1955
 21 The coming revolution in communications and its implications for business Macrae, Norman - 1978
 22 A longer-term perspective on international stability : thirteen propositions
Macrae, Norman; Bjøl, Erling - In: Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift 114 (1976) 1, pp. 158-168
Full text | 
23a 
Homes for the people
Macrae, Norman Alastair Duncan - 1967
Check Google Scholar
 The risen sun : Japan ; a survey by the Economist Macrae, Norman - In: The economist 223 (1967), pp. 1-32,1-29 Check full text access | 
MacFarquhar, Emily; Beedham, Brian; Macrae, Norman - The Economist 265 (1977), pp. 13-42
27 FIRST: - Heresies - Russia's economy is rotten to the core. The West should concentrate on exploiting profitable opportunities to improve it, not on supporting particular politicia...
28 The Hobart century : publ. by the Institute of Economic Affairs
Macrae, Norman Alastair Duncan - 1984
Check Google Scholar 
29 REINVENTING SOCIETY
Macrae, Norman - In: Economic affairs : journal of the Institute of Economic … 14 (1994) 3, pp. 38-39
30  How the EEC makes decisions
Macrae, Norman Alastair Duncan - In: The Atlantic community quarterly 8 (1970) 3, pp. 363-371 and in
How the EEC makes decisions
MacRae, Norman - In: Readings in international business, (pp. 193-200). 1972
31The green bay tree
South Africa Macrae, Norman Alastair Duncan - In: The economist 227 (1968), pp. 9-46
32 A longer-term perspective on international stability : thirteen propositions
Macrae, Norman; Bjøl, Erling - In: Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift 114 (1976) 1, pp. 158-168

. we scots are less than 4/1000 of the worlds and 3/4 are Diaspora - immigrants in others countries. Since 2008 I have been celebrating Bangladesh Women Empowerment solutions wth NY graduates. Now I want to host love each others events in new york starting this week with hong kong-contact me if we can celebrate anoither countries winm-wins with new yorkers

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ADemocratic

Russian

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From 60%+ people =Asian Supercity (60TH YEAR OF ECONOMIST REPORTING - SEE CONSIDER JAPAN1962)

Far South - eg African, Latin Am, Australasia

Earth's other economies : Arctic, Antarctic, Dessert, Rainforest

===========

In addition to how the 5 primary sdgs1-5 are gravitated we see 6 transformation factors as most critical to sustainability of 2020-2025-2030

Xfactors to 2030 Xclimate XAI Xinfra Xyouth Wwomen Xpoor chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk (scot currently  in washington DC)- in 1984 i co-authored 2025 report with dad norman.

Asia Rising Surveys

  • 1962 Consider Japan: 1967 Japan Rising part 2.1
    • 7 May 1977 survey of Two Billion People- Asia
    • 1975 Asian Pacific Century 1975-2075 1977 survey China

  • The Economist.  Can we help peoples of Russia 1963..


    The Economist. what do Latin Americans need  1965.

     
    The Economist. Saturday, has washington dc lost happiness for ever? 1969.

Entrepreneurial Revolution -would endgame of one 40-year generations of applying Industrial Revolution 3,4 lead to sustainability of extinction

1972's Next 40 Years ;1976's Coming Entrepreneurial Revolution; 12 week leaders debate 1982's We're All Intrapreneurial Now

  • What will human race produce in 20th C Q4? - Jan 1975
  • (1984 book 2025 vreport on net generation 3 billion job creation) ...translated in different languages to 1993's Sweden's new vikings
  • 1991 Survey looking forward to The End of Politicians
  • 1996 oxford union debate- why political systems can adapt ahead of time to sustainability changes millennials will encounter
  • biography of von neumann in English and Japanese

The Economist had been founded   in 1843" marking one of 6 exponential timeframes "Future Histores"

IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADAMSMITH.app :

we offer worldwide mapping view points from

1 2 now to 2025-30

and these viewpoints:

40 years ago -early 1980s when we first framed 2025 report;

from 1960s when 100 times more tech per decade was due to compound industrial revolutions 3,4 

1945 birth of UN

1843 when the economist was founded

1760s - adam smithian 2 views : last of pre-engineering era; first 16 years of engineering ra including america's declaration of independence- in essence this meant that to 1914 continental scaling of engineeriing would be separate new world <.old world

conomistwomen.com

IF we 8 billion earthlings of the 2020s are to celebrate collaboration escapes from extinction, the knowhow of the billion asian poorest women networks will be invaluable -

in mathematically connected ways so will the stories of diaspora scots and the greatest mathematicians ever home schooled -central european jewish teens who emigrated eg Neumann , Einstein ... to USA 2nd quarter of the 20th century; it is on such diversity that entrepreneurial revolution diaries have been shaped 

EconomistPOOR.com : Dad was born in the USSR in 1923 - his dad served in British Embassies. Dad's curiosity enjoyed the opposite of a standard examined education. From 11+ Norman observed results of domination of humans by mad white men - Stalin from being in British Embassy in Moscow to 1936; Hitler in Embassy of last Adriatic port used by Jews to escape Hitler. Then dad spent his last days as a teen in allied bomber command navigating airplanes stationed at modernday Myanmar. Surviving thanks to the Americas dad was in Keynes last class where he was taught that only a handful of system designers control what futures are possible. EconomistScotland.com AbedMooc.com

To help mediate such, question every world eventwith optimistic rationalism, my father's 2000 articles at The Economist interpret all sorts of future spins. After his 15th year he was permitted one signed survey a year. In the mid 1950s he had met John Von Neumann whom he become biographer to , and was the only journalist at Messina's's birth of EU. == If you only have time for one download this one page tour of COLLABorations composed by Fazle Abed and networked by billion poorest village women offers clues to sustainability from the ground up like no white ruler has ever felt or morally audited. by London Scot James Wilson. Could Queen Victoria change empire fro slavemaking to commonwealth? Some say Victoria liked the challenge James set her, others that she gave him a poison pill assignment. Thus James arrived in Calcutta 1860 with the Queens permission to charter a bank by and for Indian people. Within 9 months he died of diarrhea. 75 years later Calcutta was where the Young Fazle Abed grew up - his family accounted for some of the biggest traders. Only to be partitioned back at age 11 to his family's home region in the far north east of what had been British Raj India but was now to be ruled by Pakistan for 25 years. Age 18 Abed made the trek to Glasgow University to study naval engineering.

  • 0 China 
  • 1 Japan/Asean
  • 2 Bangla and India
  • 3 Russia
  • 4 East Euro
  • 5 West Euro
  • 6 Usa & Canada

new york

  • 7 Middle East & Stans
  • 8 Med Sea
  • 9 Africa
  • 10 Latin Am /Carib
  • 11 Arctic Circle
  • 12 UN

1943 marked centenary autobio of The Economist and my teenage dad Norman prepping to be navigator allied bomber command Burma Campaign -thanks to US dad survived, finished in last class of Keynes. before starting 5 decades at The Economist; after 15 years he was allowed to sign one survey a year starting in 1962 with the scoop that Japan (Korea S, Taiwan soon hk singapore) had found development mp0de;s for all Asian to rise. Rural Keynes could end village poverty & starvation; supercity win-win trades could celebrate Neumanns gift of 100 times more tech per decade (see macrae bio of von neumann)

Since 1960 the legacy of von neumann means ever decade multiplies 100 times more micro-technology- an unprecedented time for better or worse of all earthdwellers; 2025 timelined and mapped innovation exponentials - education, health, go green etc - (opportunities threats) to celebrating sustainability generation by 2025; dad parted from earth 2010; since then 2 journals by adam smith scholars out of Glasgow where engines began in 1760- Social Business; New Economics have invited academic worlds and young graduates to question where the human race is going - after 30 business trips to wealthier parts of Asia, through 2010s I have mainly sherpa's young journalist to Bangladesh - we are filing 50 years of cases on women empowerment at these web sites AbedMOOC.com FazleAbed.com EconomistPoor.com EconomistUN.com WorldRecordjobs.com Economistwomen.com Economistyouth.com EconomistDiary.com UNsummitfuture.com - in my view how a billion asian women linked together to end extreme poverty across continental asia is the greatest and happiest miracle anyone can take notes on - please note the rest of this column does not reflect my current maps of how or where the younger half of the world need to linkin to be the first sdg generation......its more like an old scrap book

 how do humans design futures?-in the 2020s decade of the sdgs – this question has never had more urgency. to be or not to be/ – ref to lessons of deming or keynes, or glasgow university alumni smith and 200 years of hi-trust economics mapmaking later fazle abed - we now know how-a man made system is defined by one goal uniting generations- a system multiplies connected peoples work and demands either accelerating progress to its goal or collapsing - sir fazle abed died dec 2020 - so who are his most active scholars climate adaptability where cop26 november will be a great chance to renuite with 260 years of adam smith and james watts purposes t end poverty-specifically we interpret sdg 1 as meaning next girl or boy born has fair chance at free happy an productive life as we seek to make any community a child is born into a thriving space to grow up between discover of new worlds in 1500 and 1945 systems got worse and worse on the goal eg processes like slavery emerged- and ultimately the world was designed around a handful of big empires and often only the most powerful men in those empires. 4 amazing human-tech systems were invented to start massive use by 1960 borlaug agriculture and related solutions every poorest village (2/3people still had no access to electricity) could action learn person to person- deming engineering whose goal was zero defects by helping workers humanize machines- this could even allowed thousands of small suppliers to be best at one part in machines assembled from all those parts) – although americans invented these solution asia most needed them and joyfully became world class at them- up to 2 billion people were helped to end poverty through sharing this knowhow- unlike consuming up things actionable knowhow multiplies value in use when it links through every community that needs it the other two technologies space and media and satellite telecoms, and digital analytic power looked promising- by 1965 alumni of moore promised to multiply 100 fold efficiency of these core tech each decade to 2030- that would be a trillion tmes moore than was needed to land on the moon in 1960s. you might think this tech could improve race to end poverty- and initially it did but by 1990 it was designed around the long term goal of making 10 men richer than 40% poorest- these men also got involved in complex vested interests so that the vast majority of politicians in brussels and dc backed the big get bigger - often they used fake media to hide what they were doing to climate and other stuff that a world trebling in population size d\ - we the 3 generations children parents grandparents have until 2030 to design new system orbits gravitated around goal 1 and navigating the un's other 17 goals do you want to help/ 8 cities we spend most time helping students exchange sustainability solutions 2018-2019 BR0 Beijing Hangzhou: 

Girls world maps begin at B01 good news reporting with fazleabed.com  valuetrue.com and womenuni.com

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online library of norman macrae--

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MA1 AliBaba TaoBao

Ma 2 Ali Financial

Ma10.1 DT and ODPS

  • 1972's Next 40 Years ;
  • 1976's Coming Entrepreneurial Revolution; 12 week leaders debate
  • 1982's We're All Intrapreneurial Now
  • What will human race produce in 20th C Q4? - Jan 1975
  • (1984 book on net generation 3 billion job creation) ...
  • 1991 Survey looking forward to The End of Politicians
  • 1975 Asian Pacific Century 1975-2075
  • 1977 survey China
  • first of 4 hemisphere remembrance parties- The Economist Boardroom

health catalogue; energy catalogue

Keynes: 2025now - jobs Creating Gen

.

how poorest women in world build

A01 BRAC health system,

A02 BRAC education system,

A03 BRAC banking system

K01 Twin Health System - Haiti& Boston

Past events EconomistDiary.com

include 15th annual spring collaboration cafe new york - 2022 was withsister city hong kong designers of metaverse for beeings.app

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