ai for everyone

[chris macrae]

If you spend time on stuff Lecun sees AI as designing do join in - unlike some gurus he sees at least 7 years of continuous improvement of every kind of intelligence- its all under human control at least until 2030

VALUE: man-made intelligence should be a freedom for everyone to improve lifetime around

- lets gamily intelligence - who do you see as most advancing humanity since 1951 & now?- here are around 30 brain-enriching networks voted as crucial in first 6 months of gamifying AI AIgames.solar

-who'd you add or subtract next?

2 VIP braingames Imagenet and DeepMind-Alphafold2

Our recommendation after 6 months of piloting AIgames for everyone is :

explore why Imagenet leader Fei-Fei Li celebrated thousands of top AI research teams around deepest data ever connected up to year 2017

AND then see why up to a million biotech researchers already use AI's 200 million protein database called alphafold2 innovated by DeepMind around leader Hassabis

The chats of 2023 wouldn't exist if it hadn't been for Li and Hassabis. It took about 13 years before other technologists believed deep learning machines were possible.   

The choices we can all demand AI designers do carefully in the next 8 years will likely change the world for better or worse more than moon races or anything humans have ever witnessed.: What for example does Bill Gates mean when he says AI is about to change education  totally can ai unite languages (mother tongues) in  ways that unite 8 billion humans and mother earth on more peaceful pathways?

earth are to continue with each other  23-24 Future is arguably the most exciting year to be alive but we recommend next taking stock of 30 humans from birth of brainworking engines 1951 to now - watch ai very good events listing- choose your next ai stars - nuance upd 12/23.1

we start with the NET - Neumann Einstein Turing because access to the Royal Society's English Diaries of Globalisation/Commonwealth centred around The Economist of London as weekly chatsheet since 1843, the NET launched brainworking engines as the 6th man-made (ie artificial ) engine in 1951 Neumann Princeton 1930 Einstein Princeton 1932 Turing Princeton 1939 - the mutual intent of these 3 greatest mathematicians was everyone's brain and lifetime could benefit; the NET had a peculiar view of the world - they saw engine type 5 as communications engines (telegraph on) intended for worldwide cooperation metahub switzerland ITU  1865 which followed on central europe's lead in developing electricity c 1950; the first 3 engine types had started out of glasgow - physical power of engines; automation consequences eg factory life; transportation starting with railways DEATH OF DISTANCE : COST & EXPS of DISTANCE. From 1964 The Economist foresaw DOD ; early in 21st C  satellites would make marginal cost of sharing and apping life-critical knowhow  - of course all manmade (artificial) engine types interconnect multiplying each others exponentials consequences; valuetrue models possible ups ans well as how multiplying downs now verges us on extinction as human lives are no longer geographically separable but the value and who has access locally and globally varied hugely and needs mapping to understand eg why as late as 1950 asians were 2/3 of humans but less than half had access to electricity grids; ultimately where white western europes ruled world trade explains whose lives were advanced by engines and who stayed in rural village largely unchanged since 1760

.Male Intels who helped advance Womens Intel since 2001: Abed   BGates     JYKim AGuterres ; Females now accelerating womens intel Melinda Gates*A'Ja wilson*NaOsaka (thks EJ year 63)*BJKing*CTsai*Beyonce-CRice 1 2*CShih*Fei_Fei Li HumansAI Li Hassabis Hinton Lecun *Bengio *... YouthAi -continues Jobs Valley Interventions 2001 * Li Ka Shing* J Yang * ANg* Daphne Koller ... integration of WHY AI - top brain team google, ceo nvidia , ceo AI2 ...` Whats notable is HumansAi Li & Hassabis were under 30 when their phds changed the theory  of AI in 00s; also Stanford became the most welcome cooperation centre of gravity for decade ,log investment needed to make deep learning zing;   then scaling change exponentially from 2012 proof of imagenet as wolrd's most valuable databank spanning 20000 tools and life forms human race lives with - its difficult to prove who's intel under 30 today matters most but 3 youth we  as Entrepreneurial Revolution monitors since 1976 follow from world world bank youth Summit audrey cheng and Diva; from world of pop sonita alizadeh  Right now there is a big question as to who is humanity's number 1 under 35 of LLM or chat design- our concern being with who will help design the LLM needs if millennials race to be the first sdggeneration - we dont think this who is seeable yet though we are hoping AIgames players will provide earliest clues AIgames likes biq questions rsvp [e-mail]

NET asks 1950s most valued QUESTION _ CAN BRAINWORKING ENGINES RESOLVE 2 WORLD WARS? Lifetimes of Neuman-Einstein Turing show:

Urgent Immigration to USA by both  Einstein and Neumann  had grown up in region where Nazi Germany was spiraling from 1920 - both for their own safety and to make sure Hitler & Stalin did not win the nuclear race

Einstein biggest years 1905 published paper with E=mc²  ;1915 Relativity - tried to unite worldwide intellectual cooperation League of Nations & ITU Geneva early 1920s; first trip to usa 1921 part of what became a world tour; left German-centric Europe 1930 emigrated usa 1932 after stay in ox...

Born 1879 , Einstein was 24 years older than V Neumann and 33 years older than Turing; this also means that by 1945 when all three were free of war time secrets , Einstein was already 66 and not producing breakthrough maths but chatting a lot about future of education (eg to Gandhi Freud Russell as well as black college students); it was Turing now 33 and v neumann now 42 that spent almost every living moment on brainworking machines - what wasnt known when the economist started compiling their diaries was by 1957 all 3 of these greatest maths wizards would have parted earth. This is one reason why all of the NET would be shocked how late ai for very good has become humans last chance to prevent extinction. Specifically we discuss Einstein views of education; Turing's expectation that biggest investors would build access to deepest most transparent data; Neumann mediation of almost every societal risk which he ultimately saw as needing large language model mediating English and Asian language through 999 other mother tongues to one language of very good autonomous governance valuing human and natures laws as one

[chris macrae]

Mark Andreesen: and they did right and to your point like they shut down their new plants, you know of course in California we're completely committed to European policy on everything so we shut down our nuclear plants like we just  everything

53:35

Europe does is great ...so that's the modern version,  there's actually  an origin  to

that story which is this idea of the precautionary principle; and the precautionary principle as those of you who are experts in  Science and Technology policy know this:is like a formal process it's sort of  widely known in Europe than it is here but it's it's a real thing even if the term is not used it's sort of the the theory

53:58

that's applied to technology policy today; basically precautionary principle says is that 

for any new technology the people building the technology have to have to prove that it's harmless uh before they're allowed to roll it out it's actually very similar to the drug approval process for the FDA you have to prove that it doesn't cause injury before you can roll it out 

54:17

the precautionary principle was actually created by the German Green Party in the 1970s to stop nuclear power all right so that that that was actually purpose and now it's basically being applied across the entire economy of course the problem with precautionary principle it sounds great of course you want to prove that things are not going to harm people the problem is if you back test that theory

.. you basically apply that same principle to any basically important technology of the last basically 4,000

Years starting with fire, the shovel, the wheel; the automobile electricity you know like you just  go right down the list until they all they all would have  been stopped in their tracks by the precautionary principle and so one of the ways to think about the last  4,000 years of human civilization

is that we basically did not apply the precautionary principle up until 1971 and we've applied it since;

RICE: so if you don't apply a precautionary principle,  is there any responsibility of  the technologist - what i mean  is there any responsibility to think about the implications of your

technology I'll give you we're going to talk about artificial intelligence in a minute I was at a dinner recently on

artificial intelligence and somebody asked me : will it become a weapon of war and I had to say look every

technology has become a weapon of War when you think about nuclear when we learned to split the atom  we were able to turn on the lights for civil nuclear we were able to do medical ops;we also built the bomb so inherent in any technology there is the potential for it to be used to these purposes so  do we just wait and see what happens or how would you think about that as a technologist?

MARK: ayeah so this is a really fundamental question that's gotten sort of deeply embedded in human culture for a very long time- I always cite the sort of myth of Prometheus that the Greeks you know kind of encoded into our culture :idea that that Prometheus was the go the God who brought fire down to man  and for doing that he was chained to a rock by  Zeus and has his liver pecked out by an Angry Bird every day gets regenerated overnight and then it goes

56:27

  so like this idea basically of Technology again starting with fire this idea of Technology as a double-edged sword is like is is obviously very fundamental you know there's a more 

recent of version of this the Frankenstein myth  you know more then you know in our time it's you know it's the Terminator Skynet == so look this is this like a very fundamental thing I think it's you know it's certainly true the Technologies are double-edged swords like I I think they basically any  sort of effective technology ends up

you know having sort of negative uses, you get into these very interesting questions  like gunpowder right for example which is like: how do you score gunpowder after all this time right was it basically all the Death that it caused or was it basically the establishment of the nation state; the ability to provide for defense and law enforcement and social order -- you know you could have this conversation  about nuclear weapons you know did nuclear weapons - were they actually destructive or or on they actually prevent more World War - so you get into these very fundamental questions are real questions but then the very next question you have to ask is are the technologists who invent the technology actually the ones who should be answering these questions like the

57:36

the fact that you invent the computer right or the radio or whatever or the AI

or the nuclear bomb like does that give you basically special privileges in our society to be able to answer those

questions ..  probably everybody here saw the movie Oppenheimer - you know one of the 

things that the movie did a really good job of one is it wrestled with this question a lot, but it did a really good job of basically showing how crazy how politically crazy a lot of the atomic scientists were of that time and a lot of them were like casual Communists

and a lot of them it turns out were Soviet spies right and the first Russian nuclear atomic bomb was as they say wire for wire compatible with the US Nagasaki bomb and it's because

you had these kind of crazy nuclear scientists handing everything over to the Russians and

then by  by the way you had a similar level of extremist on the other side you had John Von neumanm  who was on on the right; he was critical to developing the bomb was one of the great Geniuses of the century and he actually advocated in 1945 a nuclear first strike

against the Soviet Union and his line was um if you tell me we should bomb tomorrow I say why not today um if you

58:54

and you know put this way I don't think it'll shock anybody here to say look when people put  themselves away at an ivory tower for their lives working on some you know technical formula they might not emerge with totally sensible politics 

59:08

let me wrap up by saying like these questions are too important to be left to the technologist like these are very

very fundamental questions that have to be dealt with at a societal level, very deeply at a philosophical level they have to be developed at a political level and one of the things you see happening right now as we have these

quote/unquote experts"l we saw it during Covid, every virologist all of a sudden was a public you know was sort of a public health expert you know getting involved in all kinds of societal engineering and I just think that that the fundamental assumption there is just like deeply wrong

[chris macrae]

58:54

and you know put this way I don't think it'll shock anybody here to say look when people claser themselves away at an ivory tower for their lives working on

59:00

some you know technical formula they might not emerge with like totally sensible politics I know that might be you know crazy concept um and so I think

59:08

these like like I guess maybe maybe maybe WP up by saying like these questions are too important to be left to the technologist like these are very

59:14

very fundamental questions um that have to be dealt with at a societal level um they have to be dealt with you know kind

59:19

of very deeply at a philosophical level they have to be developed at a political level and one of the things you see happening right now as we have these

at a political level and one of the things you see happening right now as we have these

RICE: I want to come back to that because that's pointing to what we're trying to do here is to marry these two worlds in some ways but but let me talk for a minute uh artificial intelligence you had a quote We Believe artificial intelligence is our Alchemy our philosopher stone we are literally making sand think yes ... when

I read that I thought is that a good thing?  why why don't you talk a little bit about why artificial intelligence is uh special in this this way

MARK special -let's start by saying why it's good we could see if it's special so why is it good so well so look basically like all of all of human civilization everything was we surrounded by is sort of the application of intelligence right and so our ability to build a building

like this our ability to turn the lights on and our ability to you know have the discussions we having like it's all based on on human intelligence, you know look we we have used Prosthetics you know for as long as we've been able to develop technology to try to augment our intelligence and we do for spoken

language and then written language and then mathematics and then computers right uh and many other Technologies ...you know we're all constantly trying to kind of find ways to use tools to kind of make us smarter or at least leverage the intelligence that we have in in kind

of more interesting ways  and and then look that yeah the holy grail for computer science for the last 80 years..

actually all the way back to literally 19 like 1941 1942 that the Holy Grail has always been okay computers are hyper-literal right, and they're really good at like math calculations at like super high speed but they famously fall down when you expect them to interact with the real world when you expect them to interact with people when you expect them to do natural language anything or under you know sort of understand Concepts or anything um and so there there's been this 80-year research project including you know by the way

1:01:14

many decades here at Stanford  you know to actually try to get computers to think at least a little bit more like people do uh and basically it turns out that research program was correct um and and by the way that comes as a huge surprise because that was an 80-year research project that actually had many many false starts um you know there were there were many crashes along the way when I when I came to Silicon Valley in 93 like it was like a deep AI winter where like nobody  believed in these ideas and it was 

was basically a dead field

bur now and it  it turns out it was right and then what it what it presents is the opportunity to basically leverage human intelligence in all the all the ways in which we think that we have problems 

that we need to solve uh and that could be everything from biomedical research that could be you know a very broad cross-section of what you would view as as sort of Obviously good applications you know education I think you know AI is I think it's already transformative for education but I think it's going to be like monumentally transformative in the years ahead in in a very positive

way um but look at the same time it is also absolutely correct it is a weapon of War um AI is actually already a

weapon of War both the US Department of Defense and the Chinese military have declared even you know pre all this recent stuff as far back as as the mid 2010s they both both the US and China had declared that Ai and autonomy

 you know basically automated weapons were were the the future of both of those

militaries the US DOD defines this as what they call the third offset which is they call offsets basically ways that

you win war basically guaranteed and the first offset was nuclear weapons um the second offset I think was Precision missiles maneuver Warfare um and then the third uh the third offset is is an an autonomy so you know China's absolutely racing ahead to apply uh you know AI weapons um you know there's very

active do programs and defense contractors and new startups uh pursuing that um there is the opportunity to

apply those new AI Warfare Technologies in ways that I think are very beneficial and we could talk about that but at the same time we exactly your point we are entering a world in which there will be need to be a new set of military doctrines and and those will need to be thought about very carefully

RICE let me have you focus for a moment on on AI so what what does excite 

you over the horizon about what it might be able to do?

MARK I'll just give you a micro example so we have a company uh we have a company called Shield Ai and it's

it's co-founded by twin brothers uh one of them is a chip engineer from Qualcomm and the other is Navy SEAL um and so it turns out they're the perfect founding team for this kind of thing and they have developed a drone that will uh for small unit operations that will clear buildings uh right and so like what happens when you know when we when we were active in you know mosul or you know ratti or fua all these places or you know literally what's happening like right now in Israel uh you know go well literally right now in Israel like right in real time they're going into the into the hospital um and so what what you know what the Army Marine Special Forces have to do in a lot of you know any sort of urban you know situation These Days Counter Insurgency thing um they have to go kick indoors uh they go kick indoors they go inside they clear the room uh the American Sniper had a lot of this if if you want to see the the fictional version of it um and you know they look they go into the guns drawn uh they don't know who the bad guys are they don't know who has a weapon they don't know who has bomb uh grenade uh they're going you know room to room there's tremendous risk to the soldiers who are involved there's also tremendous risk of the civilians the Innocents uh that are in there and there's there's lots of accidents that take place uh and so now there's this drone this this drone from Shield Ai and it's a little backpack drone and basically you you still need the person to kick the door but once you kick the door you you sail the Drone inside and the Drone autonomously goes room to room Maps the house or the building uh and has a military sensor package on it uh and and and relays all this to The Operators outside on their on their phones in real time and and has like infrared so it it basically is able to spot everybody in in the thing it's

able to map the whole thing at 3D it's able to spot everybody in it it's able to give you video and it's able to classify friend info right and so by the time the person actually goes by the time the soldier actually goes in you actually if there's a bad guy with an AK-47 in the closet you actually already know that and you know it's not this person it's it's that person and so there's the opportunity here right I mean anybody who's at least what I've always heard from people been in Conflict situations is you know the good news of human judgment is presumably humans you know care care about life at least you know or at least some do you know the bad news is you know lack of information judgment you know adrenaline um you know people getting you know kind of rattled Under Pressure you know high tension situations um the opportunity to apply technology into situations like that uh to be able to really drain the risk out and and and make it basically a more actually logical fact-based process to be able to do things like this I think there's the possibility that we might be actually seeing a very big step function down uh in in battle deaths

1:05:47

RICE interesting let me move to a couple of other hard questions  so you  are big defender of liberal

democracy and  you're a techno  Optimist  I'm just assuming that you think it's really important that the United States and its Allies win this race rather than uh authoritarians and uyou mentioned the nuclear age

I've often asked people to do the thought experiment suppose the Nazis and the Soviet Union had won the nuclear arms race rather than the United States what might that have meant so I assume that that am I right that you are concerned that this race that we're in be one by liberal democracies

[chris macrae]

MARK that's right yeah well say and I I would I would classify a few different so first

of all I think it's important to win and I'll come back to that in a second and then I think it's also important to not then just hand over what you've invented um right which is like like we discussed how Russia got the bomb so there's like there's a part two in there which is if you win you have to actually M maintain your Victory uwhich is which is  thing these days um

1:06:59 look the importance of winning and importance of winning in World War II with atomic weapons was was obvious I think the importance of winning in AI is s very straightforward you know  and the following is just I'm going to try to basically say what they have said so this is not me casting aspersions on on on China but just saying what they've said uh which is China has one of the great things about

the Chinese Communist party is they tend to just say it like they they have these they have these very like amazing kind of statements they put out and these

like Doc they put out um these communes and it's all it's all very it's all very like 1970s dictator language but like like AI and they have basically they have basically outlined they basically outlined a full

National agenda around AI um part of it is on defense side which we talked about

but they've also laid out a full strategy for an AI Aid driven surveillance State Society um they have

laid out an entire vision for this and then they've laid out basically a vision and a goal that says this isn't just domestic China which is you know know there's certainly enough issues just in domestic China to worry about but um this is also they have an expansive Vision they want to they want to take this other places and so they have these programs like digital belt and Road and their Smart City program

and their 5G program uh right where where they have been using every instrument of state power that they have

to proliferate their approach to Network Technology and to surveillance camera technology right and to you know to e-commerce technology Logistics technology drone technology uh you know they've they've spent the last 15 years deploying that out into as many countries as they can there have been big fights actually the US is had big ongoing fights even major European countries have been you know adopting a lot of this stuff um and so that the next shoe that's that's that's happening it's is dropping right now is they're they're out with their AI strategy and they're going to go to all these same countries they're going to say look do

you want a do you want the American quote Freedom quote Democratic uh kind of model of AI for your country or do you want the Chinese you know State model and you know boy like you know I'm sure you tell your people you want the open and free one but like wouldn't it be nice to be able to track all your citizens in real time it wouldn't it be nice to know that political troubles like you know get Brewing before it actually like hits the streets and you know wouldn't you know aren't you actually kind of jealous that we have the great firewall and don't you kind of wish you'd have a great firewall of your own um and so they're they're basically going to replay what they've been doing in these other sectors um in Ai and 

there's a big you there's a big I mean basically the future of I think geopolitics democracy and human rights

you know hang in the balance so we've touched on a lot of kind of big uh

policy themes um indirectly here but but you made a statement earlier on you said

uh these are Big societal political issues that cannot just be left to the

technologist so that's why we're doing this because we really do believe that

uh the ability of technologists who really are at the frontiers of the

technology to collaborate with uh those who have spent a lot of time thinking

about uh societal issues economic issues education uh political issues not to

mention those who have to make decisions you mentioned the European regulations

but it's coming in the United States uh as to what do you regulate how do you

regulate Etc so the U the education educational and collaborative process

between technologists and those who worry about these institutions um what would you want them

to know how would you want them to think about it uh because that's essentially what we're going to try to do

 with this effort in the Stanford emerging technology review so uh how would you advise us on making this work

for for the techno techno Optimist but who understands that there are big

implications for this technology yeah so I think the big thing I say is just like look these are really complicated

multi-dimensional questions right and even just in the conversation we've just had we've touched on science technology sociology you know you very rapidly psychology Finance geopolitics right

political science  and so these are very complicated multi-dimensional things I I think the big thing is this

  is a time and these are the topics where Ivory Towers are going to be very dangerous and let me start by saying one Ivory Tower is the tech industry  and you know this is a criticism leveled against the tech industry from the outside very routinely which is you guys are in this you know bubble you know you're in this kind of you know this universe of your own as Silicon Valley you don't kind of understand what what's happening in the rest of the world I think there's a lot of Truth to that um and so I I think you ask like what responsibility to technologists have I think one responsibility is even if technologists should not be allowed to make these decisions they should we should at least try to learn as much as we can about how this this all actually works as it plays out over time um you know a second dangerous Ivory Tower is basically just you know literally sit in a room and think um and you know there's a few people in history who have been good at sitting room and thinking most people have done much better when they've gone out and talked to a lot of people and really try to learn things um you know one of one of the great virtues of Stanford and Silicon Valley always has been you know the world's best technology companies and and and technologists are you know within 20

miles of where we're sitting so I think there's a great opportunity here to uh you know to really have the the mins of Stanford intersect maybe even more with the people actually building this stuff um going forward and then look third there's a third Ivory Tower and it's Washington DC um and it's sort of the policy you know World um and it is 3,000 miles away and you know it sometimes it feels like it's maybe on another planet um and you know I go out to DC a lot and I'm the alien you know invasive species um and they're kind of staring at like you know what what is this guy you know smoking and then you know they come out here and it's you know sort of Vice Versa um you know we've been in various forms we folks come out here and they're a little bit you know there's a lot of a lot of long pauses in the conversation um and so um and look like I just tell 

you there just there are not that many people in DC who deeply understand these issues there's not a lot of technical expertise out there you know I view that again as technologists we have a real responsibility to go try to explain things uh out there and we also have a responsibility to listen and I think to the extent that you guys can continue doing what you've been doing or do more of it to kind of bring the two coasts together um and the the the Silicon Valley DC world together I think is is very valuable I've been saying they've learned how to spell AI in Washington um I'm not really sure they still understand what it what it is and so uh if we can do our part in uh bringing those two worlds together um it will be something that I think Stanford is uh if not uniquely uh qualified to do and and capable doing pretty close to uniquely and so thank you very much for being a part of our inaugural launch of the Stanford emerging technology review

thank you for everything that you've done uh to to bring technology to the four to make this place you've been a

part of this place for a long time um this Silicon Valley uh community and um

your impact on uh what we've been able to learn know create innovate is really

quite remarkable and so thank you for that very much and come back anytime please join me in thanking Mark